The OECD warns that the rise in prices is affecting family economies, with a 1.2% drop in per capita income in the G7 countries, but 4.1% in Spain
The high inflation that all countries are suffering as a result of the war in Ukraine is a matter of great “concern” for the OECD, which in its latest report on household income warns that real income per capita fell in the first quarter, which means a lower purchasing power of families and the slowdown of the economy.
According to their calculations, real per capita household income fell 1.1% in the OECD area from January to March, coinciding with the start of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. On the contrary, the GDP per inhabitant grew by 0.2% in the same period, which continues the trend of the three previous quarters in which the GDP has exceeded the per capita income of households, contrary to what was observed at start of the pandemic.
The gap increased so much during the year of confinement, that the real income of households is today 2.9% higher than in January 2020 despite the fall it is experiencing in recent months, while the GDP is only a 1.6% higher.
What has been happening for several months is that the increase in consumer prices is “undermining” household income, details the OECD. In the average of the G7 countries, income per inhabitant fell by 1.2%. Among these economies, the impact of inflation on families in the first quarter was particularly high in France, where per capita income fell 1.9%, and in Germany, where it fell 1.7%.
But these figures have no comparison with those of Spain, where high inflation has contributed to a large drop in per capita income of citizens, specifically 4.1%, four times more than the OECD and G7 average. The only European country that exceeds Spain is Austria, with a decrease of 5.5%.
This is not surprising considering that Spain’s inflation rate is the highest among its European partners. The latest data published by Eurostat for the month of July indicates that, on average, the countries of the eurozone registered 8.9% inflation, compared to 10.8% in Spain. Also higher than that of Germany (8.5%), Italy (8.4%), Portugal (9.4%) or France (6.8%).
Nothing to do with what is happening in Canada, where the highest growth in family income was recorded in the first quarter of the year (+1.5%). This was due to the increase in salaries, 3.8% in nominal terms in that period.
Saving, an impossible mission
And the incessant rise in prices is affecting the economic forecasts of the organizations. The European Central Bank (ECB) worsened its outlook on Monday in its monthly bulletin by acknowledging that “inflation remains undesirably high” and announcing that it will remain above the 2% target for longer than expected. “Growth will slow down, clouding the outlook for the second half of 2022 and beyond,” the ECB assumes in its report.
The problem is that this situation comes at a time when the economy of many families and companies would not have recovered from the pandemic. In fact, although Spain registered a record increase in the savings rate in 2020 and 2021 due to restrictions on consumption and travel, it was concentrated in only one in five Spanish households, 20%, according to figures from the economic bulletin of the ECB. These are the few families that are now in a better position to cope with high inflation.
The agency states that during the pandemic “most households were not able to increase their savings rate, only 20% increased it and around 16% reduced it.” In addition, these households that managed to save tend to be those with the highest level of income, therefore, the least affected by the rise in prices. Thus, according to the ECB, this could “limit” the positive impact of these savings on the recovery of consumption.
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