The Industry Confidence Index (ICI) dropped 2.0 points in December compared to November, to 100.1 points, reported on Monday, 27, the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV ). In the previous month, the seasonally adjusted indicator had retreated 3.1 points. The indicator totaled a decrease of 14.8 points in 2021, after registering 114.9 points in December 2020.
The fifth consecutive drop reflects problems that extended throughout the year, such as pressure on costs, scarcity of inputs and high uncertainty, explains economist Claudia Perdigão, from FGV/Ibre, in a note. “Furthermore, unemployment and inflation compress household demand, which influences not only the assessment of the current situation, but also makes the projections for 2022 more cautious”, he adds.
The Current Situation Index (ISA) dropped 2.7 points to 101.0 points, the lowest value since August 2020 (97.8). The retreat of the ISA was driven by the drop of 6.4 points in the current business situation, which reached 95.8 points, the lowest level since July 2020 (87.0).
The Expectations Index (IE), in turn, retreated 1.2 points to 99.1, the lowest level since May this year (99.0). Among the openings of the IE, the biggest reduction was in expected employment for the coming months, which dropped 2.0 points, to 101.8, while the outlook for production for the next three months contracted 1.1 point, to 98 .8. The business trend for the next six months retreated 0.6 point, to 96.6.
The Installed Capacity Utilization Level (Nuci) dropped 1.0 percentage point, to 79.7%, the same level observed in August. The Nuci was slightly above the level at which it ended 2020, at 79.3%.
The survey included information from 1,051 companies between the 1st and 22nd of this month. The next release of the Industry Survey will take place on January 27, 2022.
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