At ground level, it is hard to believe that India could one day be a superpower capable of taking Japan or China on a first-name basis. In fact, in the grimy streets flanked by chipped buildings in any of its cities, no one is surprised to find some cows sucking on posters pasted on a lamppost in the midst of a circulatory chaos that defies reason. And not far away there is always a cripple begging, or a group of half-naked children splashing in fetid water.
After all, it is the East Asian country with the highest percentage of the population earning less than $3.2 a day. And in rural areas it is even worse: farmers commit suicide because what they earn is not enough to feed their families, the population lives an average of 4.7 years less than in the cities -a difference that is increasing-, 36% of women suffer sexist violence and girls are given in marriage by their parents despite the fact that the law prohibits it.
However, from a bird’s eye view of the geopolitical chessboard, India is becoming more and more important: this month it has overtaken the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth largest economy, it will soon overtake China as the most populous country with a significantly lower average age , and next year he will chair the select group of the G20. It is also a nuclear power that even has a space program and that leads the development of ‘software’.
As if that were not enough, although the anguish has taken over the global economy, the Indian giant predicts a growth of 7.4% for this year. It seems an accessible target if one takes into account that, while the world flirted with recession, it closed the second quarter with an expansion of 13.5%. If the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund are fulfilled, it will end 2022 with a GDP of 3.54 billion dollars, compared to 3.38 billion for the old metropolis. This will culminate a decade in which he has climbed six places in the world ranking, and it may be that in just five years he will surpass Germany to win the Olympic diploma in his ambition to get on the podium.
“We have left behind those who governed us for 250 years to climb in the world economy. Therein lies our joy, more than going from sixth to fifth place. We leave behind millennia in which we have been enslaved to take advantage of the opportunity that is presented to us now. We are not going to stop,” announced Narendra Modi proudly, the prime minister who can afford to say to Vladimir Putin’s face that “it is not time for war.” For that, he has multiplied by four his imports of Russian fuels and by eight those of his fertilizers since the former KGB agent launched his “special military operation” in Ukraine. And paying in rubles, as Putin wants.
India is learning to play its tricks as a member of BRICS -the heterogeneous group of the most powerful developing countries, which it shares with Brazil, China, South Africa and Russia itself- and as a non-aligned country, which allows it to make friends in both Washington and Moscow. Not in vain, it is estimated that with the purchases of Russian oil at bargain prices, India has saved some 4,370 million euros. “It is the best deal the country can make,” justified Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, without anyone accusing him, as is done with China, of financing the invasion of Ukraine in this way.
Soccer ball factory in the city of Jalandhar, in the Indian Punjab. /
AFP
Indian and Chinese
The two most populous countries and their divergent paths
In 1961, the GDP of India and China were almost identical. And, until the 1990s, Indians earned more than Chinese on average. However, after the reforms that put an end to Maoism in 1979, China began the meteoric rise that captivated the world. Last year China announced the end of extreme poverty and now its per capita income is five times that of India. All the social indicators are also much more favorable to the communist country: from the six more years that its inhabitants live, to the almost total literacy of its population –compared to 25% of illiterates in India–, going through all the health indicators.
But India has one big asset in its favour: the age distribution of its 1.38 billion people continues to be pyramid-shaped, while China’s shape is increasingly similar to that of developed countries. The one-child policy in force for more than three decades, added to the development of welfare, has caused Chinese society to age rapidly and its workforce to fall.
In India, although the birth rate is also falling, the base of the youngest continues to be broader, which gives it, at least for a time, a demographic advantage that cannot always be reduced with increases in productivity or the adoption of technology. and that it can cut the current differences. In addition, the greater aging of China adds ballast to the already high burden of youth due to the extreme competitiveness existing in the country.
All that glitters is not gold
India has always been the great contender for superpower, but many doubt that it will succeed in realizing that ambition. After all, that a country of 1,300 million inhabitants surpasses in economic power another of 67 million does not seem like an epic feat either.
And different events have shown that all that glitters is not gold. For example, the strength of his army is overwhelming when compared to that of his archenemy Pakistan; but it pales before that of China, as was already demonstrated in the war that confronted them in 1962 and was confirmed two years ago, when Chinese soldiers literally beat several dozen Indian soldiers to death in the last skirmish on the Himalayan border. that are disputed
In a recent report, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs unceremoniously wonders how sustainable India’s boom is, “It looks like a boom built on feet of clay,” he stresses. Of course, the institution considers that India can play a key role on the geopolitical board and that its interests “converge with those of Europe, especially in the vision of China and of security in the Indo-Pacific and in the strengthening of institutions multilateral”. However, the Institute points out that India’s drive towards self-sufficiency will worsen the environment for European companies established there and that the divergence in Modi’s interpretation of democracy may cause tensions.
Two key projects
The current prime minister, a Hindu ultra-nationalist who has toned down since coming to power in 2014, is key to understanding a boom that began with economic liberalization in 1991 and has stepped on the accelerator with Modi at the wheel. He is the architect of two large projects approved to make a leap in both urban and rural areas. For the first, he designed, following in China’s footsteps, ‘Make in India’, a battery of subsidies and incentives to attract part of the industry that had settled in the neighboring giant and that seeks to diversify to reduce its exposure to the changing designs of the Communist Party of China while reducing labor costs. One of his great achievements has been the implementation of multinationals like Apple, which already manufacture some of their products in India.
“The program is working very well to attract investment, develop technology, and also promote local brands like ours,” says the director of the Intex mobile phone company, Keshav Bansal. “Now the challenge is to retain the talent that is created and that often seeks better opportunities in countries like the United States, where multinationals are nourished by many managers of Indian origin,” he adds.
These objectives, which Gandhi’s country could share with those of any developed country, contrast with those of the Clean India Mission, which Modi designed with a much more mundane goal: to ensure that every family has a latrine and thus eradicate defecation. in the open air, something that some 600 million people practiced in 2014. Five years later, after the construction of 100 million toilets, India claimed that it had eradicated this scourge, which not only poses a health risk but also leaves women in a situation of vulnerability. However, a report by the WHO and Unicef showed that last year 15% of the population still practices it, especially in rural areas.
“The problem is not just building the infrastructure. Also in ending deeply rooted habits. Because we Indians resist change. It happens with the caste system, abolished decades ago but which still persists and represents a barrier to development: the untouchables continue to be so, especially in the countryside,” says Karanam, one of the leaders of the Pendlimanu people, in Andhra Pradesh, who made the news for having become one of the first to build latrines for all its inhabitants.
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