According to the estimates announced during a wide conference in the capital, Tripoli, on Wednesday evening, it is possible through implementing the plan to reach the production of one million and 450 thousand barrels of crude by the end of the year, an increase of 250 thousand barrels from the current product.
The outgoing government said that it will adopt emergency financial arrangements for the National Oil Corporation, amounting to 37 billion and 37 billion and 640 million and 145 thousand dinars, of which 16 billion and 915 million and 707 thousand dinars will be allocated to implement that plan.
Aoun’s absence from the conference
But the most noticeable thing during the conference was the absence of Mohamed Aoun, who had previously stated that Libya “cannot increase production of crude and gas and export it to the international market at the present time.”
Aoun also questioned statements about his country’s ability to provide oil and gas to Europe to compensate for part of the energy sources supplied from Russia, in light of the technical condition of Libyan oil facilities.
Sources confirmed to “Sky News Arabia” that Aoun believes that these development plans within the specified periods are unrealistic, as they require longer periods and other arrangements with foreign companies operating in the country.
Aoun also warned in advance that the oil extraction reservoirs in the country were facing a “real disaster” due to the failure to reach the maximum production capacities, which led to the waste of crude in operational operations during the past years, and therefore it is not possible to talk about increasing production in these circumstances, according to Sources.
According to the Libyan expert in energy economics and technologies, Muhammad Omar Shamaka, the Libyan oil sector lacks experts and technicians who left it over the past ten years, while the politicized people who work according to certain agendas remain.
Shammakeh was surprised by Dabaiba’s interventions in the sector, wondering why he chose Aoun as oil minister as long as he interfered with his responsibilities, stressing that the matter in the sector is now subject to political strife and personal disputes.
He stressed that the oil sector “was subjected to destruction over the past years due to regulations, lack of expertise, tying up the oil establishment, and exposure to external pressures, which govern the issue of production, and here the public interest is absent and the wealth of Libyans is exposed to real danger.”
A plan with a “political overtone”
In the absence of the technical possibility to achieve the plan, observers believe that its goal is to “maneuver to release the frozen oil revenues by a decision of the House of Representatives, issued on the first of March, where he asked Sanalla to keep the revenues in the institution’s sovereign accounts in the Foreign Bank of Libya and not to refer them to Public revenue accounts temporarily, and until the adoption of the general budget law,” which is what the head of the Oil Corporation has already committed to.
However, the plan presented by the Dabaiba government stipulates covering previous expenditures from oil revenues, “expected to be collected during the 2022 fiscal year”, to circumvent the council’s decision, which froze revenues after choosing a new government headed by Fathi Pashaga, and against the background of corruption cases that pursued a number of ministers. In the government of Dabaiba recently.
The Libyan legal expert in the field of oil, Othman Al-Hadiri, stressed that the increase in production is not related to the injection of funds, because the problem lies in two components, “the first is the deterioration of the structure of the oil industry, and the second is the migration of expertise from the sector or its complete marginalization,” adding: “There are 65 thousand workers in the sector, Only 20% of them perform a real job, or are related to production and manufacturing processes at best, and the rest are idle, unproductive or unqualified energies.
He continued: “Neither the management of the Oil Corporation nor its subsidiaries can do anything related to raising production and reaching previous rates before 2011, or even maintaining the current rates.”
He stressed that Dabaiba’s plan “lacks credibility”, due to the absence of the Ministry of Oil, which has legal jurisdiction over the oil sector financially and technically, and also the absence of the Oil Corporation, the technical arm of the Corporation, to implement the plan.
$10 billion needed to develop the sector
The founder of the Libyan Stock Exchange and economic expert Suleiman Al-Shahoumi estimates that the oil and gas sector needs at least $10 billion over the next five years to renew its infrastructure and increase production capacity.
Al-Shahoumi believes that the Dabaiba government, which is in a state of confusion as it leaves the scene, suddenly discovered that it had neglected the oil sector and lost the ability to maneuver and benefit from high energy prices, and “in a farcical attempt it claimed its ability to raise production capacity and contribute to covering the deficit in the global market.”
He added that the next government, when it actually assumes its duties as soon as possible, will have to focus on rehabilitating and developing the sector, and the challenges of providing financing will be very important, and search for different forms and sources of financing locally and externally, through different vessels that open the door for joint and disciplined investment, which aims to achieve the interest of all.
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