08/10/2024 – 15:52
If it depends on São Paulo’s electoral history, Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) has everything to be re-elected. According to a survey by Estadão, since 1992, all the candidates who led the first round in the capital emerged victorious in the second, with just one exception: Fernando Haddad (PT), in 2012. Hindsight reinforces the importance of starting at the front, making comebacks in the second round a rare event.
With the municipal machine and the support of the state government, Nunes finished the first round ahead, but with a tight margin: just 25,012 votes ahead of Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), with whom he will compete for Mayor of São Paulo. Influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who came in third place, also finished close, just 81 thousand votes away from the emedebista.
With the exception of Haddad, all disputes for São Paulo City Hall in the last three decades followed the same script: whoever started ahead in the 1st round maintained their advantage and won in the 2nd. In 2008, in a similar scenario to this year, Gilberto Kassab (then at DEM) and Marta Suplicy (PT) – now Boulos’ deputy – ended the first round together: 33.61% of valid votes for Kassab and 32.79% for Martha.
Like Nunes, Kassab was running for re-election in office and had the support of then-governor José Serra (PSDB). Today, Nunes counts on Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) as her main guarantor. Meanwhile, Marta, like Boulos, received the support of President Lula, who at the time enjoyed high popularity.
Nunes’ predecessor, former mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB) also started ahead, with 32.85% in the first round, against 20.24% for Boulos. In the second round, Covas increased his advantage and secured victory with 59.38% of valid votes.
The scenario was repeated in other years, such as 2000, when Marta emerged with 38.13% of valid votes in the first round against 17.40% for Paulo Maluf (PPB). In the second round, Marta increased her advantage and won with 58.51%. See the survey at the end of the article.
Haddad was the only exception
Fernando Haddad was the only candidate who reached the second round at a disadvantage and managed to reverse the situation, emerging victorious. With President Lula as his main electoral leader, the PT member started the race little known by the São Paulo electorate, but gained visibility and grew in the polls throughout the campaign, driven by the ample time during election hours.
Haddad finished the first round with 28.98%, just behind José Serra (PSDB), who had reached 30.75%. In the second round, he managed to turn the game around and gained an advantage, winning with 55.57% of the valid votes, while the toucan got 44.43%.
2nd round tends to be more difficult for Boulos
Despite the minimal difference in votes in the first round, the dispute tends to be more complicated for Guilherme Boulos than for Ricardo Nunes in the second round – and it is not just because of the history of whoever leads in the first round. Nunes enters with the support of the municipal and state machines, in addition to a lower rejection: 25% of voters say they would not vote for him at all, against 38% who reject Boulos.
Nunes also has the support of municipal and state machinery. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, the emedebista’s main electoral campaigner in the first round, should continue to be engaged in his campaign.
On the other hand, the mayor will have to deal with Boulos’ attempt to associate him with Bolsonaro, a figure with high rejection among São Paulo residents. PSOL should use the strategy of repeating the 2022 clash between Lula and Bolsonaro to attract low-income voters, with the reinforcement of Lula, Fernando Haddad and Luiza Erundina in the campaign. At the same time, Boulos will need to combat the radical stigma and show that he has management capacity, a weakness that he is trying to neutralize with the presence of Marta Suplicy on his ticket.
History of disputes in the capital
2020
First round
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 32.85%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 20.24%
Second round
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 59.38% (elected)
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 40.62%
2016
João Doria (PSDB): 53.29% (elected in the first round)
2012
First round
José Serra: 30.75%
Fernando Haddad: 28.98%
Second round
Fernando Haddad: 55.57% (elected)
José Serra: 44.43%
2008
First round
Gilberto Kassab: 33.61%
Marta Suplicy: 32.79%
Second round
Gilberto Kassab: 60.72% (elected)
Marta Suplicy: 39.28%
2004
First round
José Serra: 43.56%
Marta Suplicy: 35.82%
Second round
José Serra: 54.86% (elected)
Marta Suplicy: 45.14%
2000
First round
Marta Suplicy: 38.13%
Paulo Maluf: 17.40%
Second round
Marta Suplicy: 58.51% (elected)
Paulo Maluf: 41.49%
1996
First round
Celso Pitta: 44.93%
Luiza Erundina: 22.83%
Second round
Celso Pitta: 62.28% (elected)
Luiza Erundina: 37.72%
1992
First round
Paulo Maluf: 48.84%
Eduardo Suplicy: 30.68%
Second round
Paulo Maluf: 58.08% (elected)
Eduardo Suplicy: 41.92%
#São #Paulo #leads #1st #wins #Haddad #exception