The fiscal start of the second semester will be in electoral mode. Alerted by the polls, the Government is looking for a “sweet July” in which the public and private sectors will pour into their pockets at least $ 335,000 million. The Government hopes that this will kickstart the delayed upturn in consumption and improve the chances of the ruling party in the next elections.
The calculation is from the consulting firm EconViews, which coined the term “sweet july” for this combo: between Christmas bonuses, earnings returns and bonuses to retirees and social programs, next month more than 335,000 million pesos to the street.
To reach that number, the $ 6,000 bonus is included, which will reach almost 1 million workers in the popular economy through the Empower Work plan. This item requires $ 5.4 billion.
To this is added the refund of Profits, with the first installment of the refund of the amount paid for this tax between January and June. This will reach the pockets of 1.2 million employees who together will pocket $ 6,923 million next month.
The next step refers to the bonus for retirees who receive the minimum credit, an initiative that has not yet been officially confirmed but that is taken for granted by official offices, which would be two installments of around $ 1,500. This would sue the tax coffers $ 33,000 million.
The last item is the juiciest. It is the one that measures the impact of the average bonus among workers in a dependency relationship, both private and public sector. In total it will be $ 290,000 million.
For EconViews, the immediate question is Where will these pesos go? The intention of the Government is that they turn to consumption. With tourism practically forbidden, one of the most likely options is that they go to the purchase of electrical appliances or other types of goods.
But the consultant warns that for the .Christmas bonus shock is used in consumption, “expectations regarding the dynamics of real wages in the short term they should improve“.
This picture is complicated because salaries are traveling at a slower pace. 7 points below inflation, although this loss could be limited since the official salary guideline of 30% begins to be extended to 45%, as shown by the agreements closed in recent days, such as those for truckers and ANSeS.
In this way, they foresee that “A good part of the money that will go to the streets in July will go to consumption while another minor will go to savings “.
.In this second part, It’s not discarded “higher dollarization, although the rates in pesos are relatively attractive in the face of a process of deceleration of inflation that we see ahead and with a Central Bank determined to put a ceiling on parallel prices.
The truth is that in the week that ended, the market was preparing for what it sniffs as higher dollarization. Thus, the blue dollar increased four pesos and closed at $ 164, eight pesos above the price it had at the beginning of the month.
With the aspiration that consumption grows, the Government will seek that part of the pesos that will be dumped into the street return to the tax coffers through taxes and that this alleviates the effect on public accounts.
After a first four-month period in which Minister Martín Guzmán strongly adjusted spending, the second wave of Covid demanded loosen the reins.
The new restrictions on circulation led to an expansion of the Alimentar Card, which went from 1.9 million to 4 million families. To this was added a $ 15,000 bonus for beneficiaries of the Universal Child Allowance (AUH) and monotax A and B of the AMBA. In addition, REPRO II was extended to cover companies hit by closures and infections.
Until now, the Government has taken the amount allocated to social coverage and care for the pandemic to 1.3% of GDP. Is about $ 480,000 million.
Along with this increase in expenses, the Government has in favor of an increase in income. On the one hand it will have $ 300,000 million additional for the Wealth Tax. And on the other hand, the rise in commodities, despite the declines in recent days, will contribute up to $ 8 billion extra to the estimate.
“We do not believe that the minister can sustain the brake that he maintains on expenses and the expansive fiscal policy of the election years it will return to be present consuming the margin that the extraordinary income offered “, indicates the consultant LCG.