Hungary | Hungary again seems to be electing Orbán, the following Finnish experts say on the spot:

The war in Ukraine seems to have increased support for the ruling party Fidesz during the election.

Atmosphere The streets of Budapest, the Hungarian capital, are waiting and partly apathetic, describes a senior researcher at the University of Helsinki Emilia Palonen under Sunday’s parliamentary elections.

An interesting race was announced in advance, as the Prime Minister, who has been in power for almost a decade, Viktor Orbánille there is a notable challenger on offer. Opposition parties from the Socialists to the far right put aside their differences and gave their support to the joint candidate Peter Mark-Zaylle.

However, the latest poll results are crushing for the opposition: Politicon according to Orbán and his Fidesz party would not only win but retain a two-thirds majority in parliament.

It would know more arbitrary changes to the constitution and the concentration of power in a country where the EU has long been concerned about the deterioration of democracy.

“According to the latest poll, the opposition would have a worst-case scenario. The mood is low, ”Palonen commented to HS on Friday.

“It can even cause some people to not want to go to the polls.”

On Saturday, right on the eve of the election, another Publicus survey though, Fidesz’s lead seemed lost.

Opposition and the government seemed equal for a long time until the war in neighboring Ukraine rocked support figures by a few percentage points in favor of Fidesz. The government’s new campaign tip, according to which only Fidesz can keep Hungary out of the war, seems to be working.

The opposition has tried to attack Orban, recalling that he is committing a Russian president bombing civilians in a neighboring country. Vladimir Putin with.

However, the critical message is difficult to get through. The majority of Hungary’s traditional media, ie television, radio and newspapers, are under the control of the government. No election debates or any other public debate between the government and opposition parties will be held.

During the election campaign, each opposition party was given five minutes to televise its goals.

“It can be said that the opposition was given a chance, but there is no real public debate,” Palonen says.

Indeed, the opposition prime minister-designate Márki-Zay campaigned in a video in which he offered Orbán an empty chair next to him if the incumbent prime minister just agreed to have a debate.

Also Doctoral researcher at the University of Helsinki, familiar with Hungary Annastiina Kallius has flown to Budapest to smell the atmosphere during the election.

He says he met his pro-democracy acquaintances from a time when he was still living in Budapest. The majority have already buried hopes for a change of power.

“I don’t see much hope here, there’s more cynicism and terribly ironic jokes in the air,” Kallius describes.

“The highest hope is that Fidesz would lose its two-thirds majority. And that, too, seems uncertain. ”

Finnish experts Annastiina Kallius and Emilia Palonen both visited Budapest during the parliamentary elections.

Opponents of the opposition are also reassured that electoral fraud is taking place and that election observers will not be able to do anything about it.

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“It simply came to our notice then. In poor areas, large-scale buying of votes cannot be prevented. ”

In general, the atmosphere in Budapest is still calmer, according to Kallius, than in the previous elections in 2018. At that time, Fidesz intimidated voters with spectacular anti-immigration posters.

“The level of propaganda was stronger then. Now the main message of the government is that the opposition wants to take Hungary to war and teach children sexual propaganda at school. ”

Sunday’s election will also see a referendum on a law that bans homosexuality and transgender in school textbooks and education, for example.

Read more: Hungary to hold Russian-style referendum on ‘homopropagandan’, NGOs call for protest

Fidesz supporters gathered for a campaign event in Budapest on Hungarian National Day on March 15th.

From Finland it is easy to wonder why Fidesz is being voted on. Do Hungarians not want democracy and a functioning rule of law?

Internationally, these are perhaps the most talked about topics in the Hungarian elections, but Kallius urges us to think about it from the perspective of an ordinary Hungarian.

Not everyone is interested in politics and social theory, especially if faith in the system is gone. For many Hungarians, politics appears to be an unreliable arena in which unreliable politicians play their game.

The decision to vote will then be influenced by more practical things, such as affordable energy – if a person decides to bother to vote.

“The rule of law cannot be used to heat an apartment,” says Kallius.

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Orbán has attracted voters with just cheap energy.

His government has decided on discounts that the voter will be reminded of with orange ad text at the corner of every gas bill.

The gas bill for an apartment in Budapest has a calculation added by the Orbán administration on the orange background about how much money will be saved due to their bill reduction policy. In this case, the discount is about 26 euros.

In addition, Orbán has recently agreed with Putin on a new low-cost gas deal and promised Hungarians that his good relations with Russia will guarantee cheap energy in the future.

Honey thinks that if Fidesz’s dominance does not change in Sunday’s elections, Hungarian democracy activists could run out of power.

“People really get tired of hitting their head against a wall. You can think about how long you would be able to keep going when the other party has all the power. ”

In Palonen’s opinion, it would still not be worth drawing too many conclusions about Fidesz’s possible victory.

In Hungary, he said, there is a wider change in attitudes that is not yet reflected in the voting figures.

“Fidesz does not arouse the same enthusiasm in people as it did a few years ago, especially in the younger generations,” says Palonen.

“The change is also visible in the countryside. There may be faith in the current opposition parties, but new ones are always emerging. ”


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