The government is planning a debt ceiling that could cause migration from Helsinki to the frame municipalities. The real estate agent estimates for HS what kind of apartment the maximum loan from the area would provide.
Government plans for households debt ceiling. If the government’s plans materialize, the debt ceiling could be five times the annual gross income of households.
Helsinki residents median income was EUR 24,000 per year in 2018. The person earning a median income would therefore receive a loan of EUR 120,000 if the debt ceiling is realized. If both couples earned a median income, it would be possible to get a loan of 240,000 euros.
If the loan ceiling were to materialize, many low- and middle-income people in Helsinki who are considering buying an apartment would not be able to find an apartment in Helsinki that they like and large enough, because apartments are expensive in Helsinki.
At that time, a Helsinki resident considering buying a home would probably focus on other municipalities in the vicinity of the Helsinki metropolitan area. In the frame municipalities of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, the so-called Hot Municipalities, population growth has already been strong.
Read more: The debt ceiling would force low- and middle-income Helsinki residents to Järvenpää or Hyvinkää.
Hot municipalities about 2,200 people moved abroad and about 800 people from abroad in 2020. The growth was 1,176 more than the average in 2015–2019.
The population of the hot region has not grown as much in the 2010s in terms of volume as last year.
Regional Development Researcher Timo Aro considers it possible, in principle, that the population growth of individual municipalities in Central Uusimaa will accelerate even further if the debt ceiling materializes.
“If, due to the debt ceiling, it is difficult to get a loan large enough to buy an apartment in Helsinki or Espoo, for example, then the goal of the location of the apartment will move to the next ring, ie primarily to Vantaa, individual Kuuma municipalities or Porvoo. On the other hand, it may be that people save more and live in rent for longer before buying an apartment, ”Aro ponders.
If The population growth of the municipalities of Central Uusimaa is accelerating due to the loan ceiling, the municipalities may have challenges to cope with the growth.
“The migration attractiveness of a few municipalities in Central Uusimaa has been high even before the state of emergency caused by the coronavirus. Municipalities do not need unforeseen population growth. For example, Järvenpää and Kerava have had a lot to do with investment in services and infrastructure, as the population has grown a lot. With moderate growth, Tuusula has succeeded more easily in providing sufficient services and infrastructure as the population grows. ”
According to Aro, the municipalities of Central Uusimaa, for example, in Hyvinkää, are well placed to receive a possible acceleration in population growth.
“In Hyvinkää, population growth has been more manageable in recent years. The city has good public services and is more prepared for potential population growth. ”
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Helsinki resident with the median income in 2018, a single person would receive a mortgage of EUR 120,000 and a couple a mortgage of EUR 240,000.
But what kind of apartment can you get from Central Uusimaa for 120,000 euros?
“Looking at the transactions that have taken place in the last couple of years, Kerava receives a double or triangle for 120,000 euros. The prices of one-room apartments are about 70,000–200,000 euros, the prices of triangles start from 90,000 euros. You can’t get an apartment in the very center of Kerava, ”says a real estate agent who has worked in Central Uusimaa for a long time. Reija Kivinen-Maksimainen.
According to Kivinen-Maksimainen’s assessment, housing prices in Tuusula have been similar. In Järvenpää, prices are slightly higher than in Kerava, while in Hyvinkää they are lower.
What if the couple has a mortgage totaling 240,000 euros. What kind of apartment can you get with that amount?
“For 240,000 euros, you can get a twin or triangle in good condition from the central area in the municipalities of Central Uusimaa. The sum can also be used to get a small detached house with four rooms and a kitchen. ”