HS Interview | Finland is part of Putin’s dream circle, says Russia researcher Gudrun Persson

Vladimir Putin is preparing the Russian people for a long war, says Swedish Russia researcher Gudrun Persson. He does not rule out a confrontation between Russia and NATO.

I’m slathering

Year then a Russia researcher About Gudrun Persson became a well-known figure in Sweden.

Persson was serious about the Sälen security conference speechin which he said that Russia will not back down from its demands related to NATO and Ukraine.

The speech was like a warning of the future: Sweden and Europe should wake up and prepare themselves.

“Russia is preparing for a long conflict, and the nature of this conflict is existential for Russia,” Persson said a year ago.

He explained that Russia is trying to create a new kind of security order in Europe, where Russia would have the right to advantages both regionally and ideologically. Persson said that Russia is in a situation where it has already locked its options.

President Vladimir Putin had spoken about his goals clearly for a long time.

“Russia does what it does because it works. They see themselves as being on the right side of history, the winners,” Persson said.

He ended his speech with the words: “No one can say that we didn’t know.”

More than a month later, Russia launched a major attack on Ukraine.

In January 2023 Gudrun Persson is sitting in the restaurant of Tunturihotelli in Sälen. Persson’s speech last year is the most watched speech in Sälen’s history, and it raised him to the position of some kind of oracle in Sweden.

This year’s in his speech Persson discussed the possibility of peaceful coexistence with Russia. Now, however, predicting events is considerably more difficult.

What is clear is that the goals of Russia and Putin are still the same as before the attack.

“Pushing NATO away from Russia’s borders and crushing Ukraine,” says Persson and continues:

“Furthermore, Putin wants back historical territories that have belonged to the Russian Empire. He doesn’t necessarily want to occupy all the countries, but he wants someone in them [Aljaksandr] Lukashenko such a leader.”

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Persson says that Finland is also part of this circle of interests dreamed by Putin. He estimates that this is exactly what made Finland quickly apply for NATO membership.

“I believe that this rhetoric made Finland apply, and the president also showed it [Sauli] Niinistön in the New Year’s speech a year ago,” says Persson.

He sees Finland’s security policy line as clear. The line has three pillars, Persson lists:

1. Relationship with the Soviet Union or Russia.

2. Own defense ability.

3. Relationship with the West.

If a pillar breaks, it must be compensated by another.

“Finland has also brought this out clearly. And when the Russian Empire first broke, Finland became independent. After the Soviet Union fell, Finland applied to join the EU. And now with the Russian war, Finland applied to NATO. It has been a clear line, and it should not be surprising, even if some in Sweden were surprised that ‘oh, is Finland applying for NATO'”, says Persson.

According to the researcher, Russia’s main target is now Ukraine, but in the longer term the eye is also on other frontline countries, such as Finland.

Person works as a research director at the Swedish National Defense Institute. He specializes in Russia and also works as an assistant professor at Stockholm University. He has lived in Moscow in the 1990s. His Ph.D dealt with how the Russian military leadership viewed the rest of the world between 1859 and 1873.

According to Persson, when following Russian state propaganda, it becomes clear that Putin is preparing the Russians for a long war. Russia has taken steps towards declaring martial law.

“It is possible that there will also be new mobilizations,” says Persson.

According to Persson, Putin is turning Russia into a “neo-Stalinist” state, where freedoms are reduced one by one.

Russia is already a country where war has become a new political system, says Persson. Putin wants to be the great leader who will restore to Russia the historical power that was destroyed in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia is fighting an existential and holy war. There are no signs of backing down.

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“Putin speaks in maximalist terms about the fact that a world without Russia is not a world worth living in.”

Persson says that the war is in an uncertain phase, where it is very difficult to predict the next twists and turns. However, the researcher “wants to hope” that Russia will try to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO.

We still have to think about that possibility: a major war between NATO and Russia.

“I have been thinking about the beginning of the First World War. Those who started the war thought it would be over quickly. That didn’t happen,” says Persson.

Vladimir Putin gave his New Year’s speech in front of people in military uniforms.

Person’s according to him, negotiating with Putin is currently impossible.

But sometimes even this war ends, says Persson. And Russia also has forces that want to strive for a peaceful coexistence with the West, he continues.

“The problem is that there is no room for them in Russia. They have been imprisoned, forced into exile or silence.”

According to Persson, a large part of the Russian people supports the war events, at least passively. He doesn’t know how to estimate how much of the population opposes the war and wants to find a new way to live together with the West.

“This part of the population is not visible, but it is there. Russia hasn’t stopped thinking, even if thoughts can’t be articulated.”

The most visible opponent of Putin in Russia is Alexei Navalny. Would he be a peacemaker?

“Navalny became really popular and he was able to influence the entire Russian Federation, not just St. Petersburg and Moscow, and that’s why he became so dangerous for the regime. But he has also said that Crimea should not be returned, so I don’t want to idolize him. However, he represents something other than Putin.”

According to Persson, the most important thing is that the change starts from within Russia.

“We cannot think that we can sit here and dictate how they should act. They have to solve it themselves. And if we take a little longer perspective on Russian history, change can come very quickly when it does. And it has always been something that could not have been foreseen.”

Person says that Russia is often viewed as too personal-driven. Let’s see the state only through the leaders. However, Russia has created its leader. Putin is also a product of the Russian system. According to Persson, Russia was already aiming for a position as a major power of the “multipolar world”. Boris Yeltsin during the 1990s.

In Putin’s multipolar world, major powers such as the United States, China, Brazil, India and Russia divide the world into their own spheres of interest.

“Even if Putin were to be followed by a more Western-friendly and less bomb-throwing leader, it is by no means clear that everything would be freedom and peace after that.”

There is no simple solution, says Persson. But when peace comes, Russia must not be humiliated. We need to find solutions and cooperate with the forces that want to develop a peaceful Russia.

“Because there are.”

According to Persson, it is not the task of the West to find solutions for Putin. The task of the West is to continue supporting Ukraine in every way.

And humiliating Russia is currently handled by Russia itself.

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