HS interview Estonian Prime Minister to HS: Relations with Russia must not be normalized, even if Ukraine makes peace

Tallinn

You should Peace in Ukraine already, in order to achieve normal relations with Russia, may be thought by many.

However, normalizing relations with Russia would be a mistake, says the Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas In an interview we have at Stenbock House in the Prime Minister’s office in Tallinn’s Old Town.

“It must be remembered that a possible peace agreement and the surrender of the territories will not take place voluntarily but because of the Russian invasion. The surrender of the region and neutrality in return for peace would sound like a frightening end to the outcome of the Winter War. ”

Winter War again! This parable has often been used both in Finland and in the international media.

Prime Minister Kallas will also make a parable of Estonia.

“You fought, but our leaders at the time thought that not fighting the Russians would save lives,” he recalls.

“In reality, the atrocities against us began because we didn’t fight. You fought, and many people died in the war. But I believe you saved more people because you were able to maintain your independence. ”

By fighting Ukraine is also working against the attacker. The country knows well what life was like under Russian rule – and often oppression – from century to century.

“It is important that we do not put pressure on Ukraine for any kind of agreement they do not want to join. Most Ukrainians think they are winning the war. ”

Although the Finns thought so in the Winter War, the decision-makers knew otherwise.

“It is difficult for Ukrainian leaders to watch when the people are killed. But if [Venäjän presidentti Vladimir] Putin gets huge areas of Ukraine in exchange for peace, followed by a break of a couple of years, and after that he wants more, ”the prime minister concludes.

“Therefore, Putin must not win, and he must not even think that he will win, that his appetite will not increase.”

This is exactly what the Prime Minister said, for example, in The New York Times in a guest essay in this month.

“In Ukraine, Putin is painting civilians who are being killed more than soldiers. He must be convicted of war crimes. ”

Attack must keep fighting and isolating Russia until Russia withdraws all its troops from the territories it occupies and occupies, Kallas insists.

“It’s very difficult. But we made a mistake in 2008 and 2014. We must not make a mistake again. ”

2008 was the war in Georgia. In 2014, with the help of the Crimean Peninsula and separatists he supported, Putin also seized areas from Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

The attacks should not be rewarded with the normalization of relations, the prime minister says.

“It’s important not only for Europe, but for the world. If leaders who want to expand their territories at the expense of their neighbors see that they can do it, they will do the same. ”

Estonia did not fight Russia in World War II, but it learned from its mistakes, the prime minister estimates.

“As soon as we regained our independence in the early 1990s, we decided we never wanted to be alone again. In World War II, we tried to be neutral and it didn’t work. ”

Father of Prime Minister Kallas Siim Kallas held NATO negotiations in the 1990s as Foreign Minister.

“He was often asked why you want this when Russia is no longer a threat Boris Yeltsin season. We said we know our neighbors. That’s why we operate in a narrow time window where it was possible. ”

That was a sensible decision for the Prime Minister.

“Without NATO membership, we would be in a really gloomy mood now.”

Gloomy is, of course, still. The security situation in Estonia and Finland has completely changed since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the prime minister estimates.

“It didn’t come as a surprise. On the evening of February 23, we agreed with the board members that no one would put the phone on silent the next night. ”

He hoped there would be no call about the attack.

“But it came, and already at five in the morning we took the initiative with Latvia and Lithuania for consultations under NATO’s Article 4, because the security situation has changed dramatically.”

Finland has talked more about NATO’s fifth article, according to which an attack on one NATO country would be an attack on all NATO countries.

Kallas recalls that no NATO country has ever been attacked. So the deterrent works.

“West Berlin, for example, would have been [kylmän sodan aikana] very easy to conquer militarily. But it was part of NATO, so it was not conquered. ”

If this sounds like a NATO ad, that’s the Prime Minister’s intention.

“If you join NATO, the security of our region will improve and we will become your biggest friends at NATO. NATO has its own defense and also a collective defense. It doesn’t make you weaker but stronger. ”

Kallas continues to praise NATO.

“I just met with Danish troops with whom we have joint battalions ready to fight. It is also a deterrent. If Finland is a full member of NATO, Russia will not only have to think about the Finnish Defense Forces, but also the armies of the United States, Britain and, for example, France. ”

But Ukraine also wanted NATO, as it even expressed in its constitutional reform. Was Ukraine deceived when it did not just join NATO?

“I wouldn’t say that, but my only point of comparison is Estonia’s application for membership in the 1990s. We did it very early, ”he says.

Ukraine did not do the same in the 1990s.

“Maybe they had leadership problems. Then in 2014, Ukraine said very clearly that they wanted to belong to the Western world. ”

At the time, it was no longer Yeltsin’s amicable Russia, but Putin’s increasingly paranoid Russia.

“Putin made it clear that he will do everything in his power to keep Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus and Moldova from moving closer to the West. To prevent that, he is now working. ”

Ukrainians ask why NATO has not established a no-fly zone to prevent Russian destruction of Ukrainian airspace.

“NATO is a defense alliance dedicated to defending NATO members. It is not intended to defend anyone other than its member countries, ”Kallas recalls.

“The no-fly zone has been established a few times by a decision of the UN Security Council. However, Russia has a veto there, and respect for the law is very important. That is why we are not entitled to a no-fly zone. ”

There is also an additional ground on which, for example, the President of the United States Joe Biden has appealed. If NATO sets out to fight Russia to establish and maintain a no-fly zone, the situation could escalate into World War III.

Natoon Ukraine did not make it, but it receives considerable international help – including from Estonia.

“We have provided more than 220 million euros in aid to Ukraine. We started support as early as December because the intelligence reports were worrying. At the same time, we raised our defense spending, partly in January and partly after the attack, to a total of 2.5% of our GDP. ”

In Finland Ministry of Defense administrative expenditure accounts for 1.96 per cent of GDP. When the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ share of military crisis management, defense administration pensions and part of the Border Guard’s expenditure is included, it is about 2.2 percent of GDP, the Ministry of Defense calculates.

Are Has the EU and NATO been united enough in their response to the Russian invasion?

“So far, unity has been enough, but it will be increasingly difficult in the future.”

Sanctions also make it more difficult for European countries to impose sanctions.

“And countries with much better neighbors than we do are more dependent on us for public opinion.”

According to him, it is important that for economic reasons, core values ​​are not abandoned.

“I have said that gas can be expensive but freedom is invaluable. But the situation is, of course, more difficult for countries that are highly dependent on Russian gas. ”

Estonia has been wary of dependence on Russia. However, nine percent of energy consumption comes from gas, which is imported almost exclusively from Russia, says Prime Minister Kallas.

He proposes an arrangement whereby gas is paid to Russia, but in a separate account, the funds of which can only be directed to the reconstruction of Ukraine.

“The percentages may be negotiable, but Putin needs to know that he will have to pay for the infrastructure he has destroyed in Ukraine and for every building he bombs.”