HS interview | British defense official: Putin would not have attacked Ukraine if the West had acted differently in Afghanistan

British Congressman Tobias Ellwood has met the president before the interview Sauli Niinistön. The foreign minister has also been slapped Pekka Haaviston (green) and with the defense committee of the parliament.

The meetings are related to Ellwood’s visit to Finland, where he, as chairman of the Defense Committee of the British Parliament’s House of Commons, has heard Finns’ views on the security situation.

Ellwood says that he heard a clear concern in Helsinki about how the United States can withdraw its support for Ukraine after the midterm elections. It could be a big turning point in the war of aggression started by Russia.

“I will take this message with me from here to London and to our American partners. This is what we have to do,” says Ellwood.

Did the message come from President Niinistö?

“I don’t know if the president wants to be quoted here, but the message has been clear,” Ellwood says, then refers to his discussions at the Foreign Policy Institute.

Ellwood is Rishi Sunakia a supported conservative politician and an officer by background, who in his home country’s politics is profiled precisely in military affairs and security policy. He differs from other politicians in that he has experienced the effects of terrorism up close.

In 2002, Islamist terrorists bombed a nightclub on the island of Bali, Indonesia. More than 200 died. Among the victims was Ellwood’s brother.

When Tobias asks Ellwood how his brother’s fate has affected him, the answer is an analysis of Afghanistan’s recent history and how the country is again drifting deeper into the hands of Islamists.

Ellwood talks about how the uncomprehending West tried to import its values, how schoolboy mistakes are personified by the US Secretary of Defense to Donald Rumsfeldhow the president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai was “our man” and how the Taliban finally knew better how to act.

“What happened to my brother affects everything I think. You have to understand that the world is complicated and that democracy needs defending”, says Ellwood while sitting at a long table in the British Embassy in Helsinki.

In Ellwood’s interpretation, Afghanistan is also one of the root causes of the war in Ukraine.

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“Democracy is like a garden.”

In British politics turbulent times have been lived when the prime ministers have changed. However, the foreign and defense ministers have remained the same, Ellwood reminds.

“The good thing about British foreign policy has always been that even when the government changes, the direct changes have been minor,” he says.

It is news for Finns, because the country’s previous prime minister announced his resignation in July Boris Johnson visited Finland in May to promise security guarantees.

“We are committed to our international role. We are committed to supporting democracy around the world, whether it’s aid programs or tougher ways to protect our interests,” says Ellwood.

“Democracy is like a garden. If you don’t take care, everything starts to run rampant,” sums up Ellwood.

According to him, the defense of democracy has been forgotten by many, but Ellwood has done it quite concretely. When a terrorist struck in London near the British Parliament in 2017, Ellwood ran outside to give artificial respiration to the wounded. However, the victim died from his injuries.

Tobias Ellwood praises Finns’ understanding of Russia. According to him, Finland, which is applying for NATO membership, is bringing “more than what many other NATO countries have to offer” to the military alliance. He considers Finnish conscription as a successful example.

“You have kept your eye on the ball, been vigilant, when many others in the West became complacent”, Ellwood analyzed.

Ellwood reportedly did not talk about some issues during his visit to Finland, such as the placement of nuclear weapons in Finland.

“You are buying F-35 fighter jets, so entering a nuclear weapons alliance that operates within the military alliance is easily handled if the Finns want it,” says Ellwood.

Russian There have been different analyzes of the reasons for the war of aggression, but in the interpretation of the British parliamentarian, the reason can be found in a corner of the earth, which is rarely talked about in this context either.

“About me [Vladimir] Putin wouldn’t have launched the invasion of Ukraine if he hadn’t seen our interest dying in Afghanistan and how we gave up and how little strategic patience we had,” says Ellwood.

A year ago in August, the United States withdrew its last troops from Afghanistan.

Ellwood emphasizes how security and economy are connected. For example, he takes the port of Odessa in southern Ukraine.

“We could have easily created a humanitarian haven in Odessa and we could have secured the wheat ships leaving from there. Instead, we gave Russia a say, and now the ships are not moving at all in the way they should.”

Having said this, Ellwood describes at length how wheat ships have drifted step by step into a food and economic crisis.

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“Putin is losing. He has been humiliated.”

Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu called the defense ministers of France, Turkey, the United States and Britain at the end of last week.

According to Ellwood, the minister’s phone calls must be taken “very seriously”. In the calls, Šoigu expressed the suspicion that Ukraine would use a “dirty bomb”, i.e. a weapon that would spread radioactive material.

“Putin is losing. He has been humiliated. The world’s third largest army has been forced to retreat before the Ukrainians, many of whom are civilians, albeit educated. This has been incredibly embarrassing for Putin because this war is his.”

In Ellwood’s interpretation, Putin does not want to be seen as a loser, and therefore he is forced to find new ways.

“He changes his tactics like [Adolf] Hitler in the second world war. He is attacking civilians and infrastructure, thus trying to break the morale of Ukrainians. The easy way is a staging strategy and a dirty bomb. Then he can say what I said and strike back with a tactical nuke.”

Then the war would move to another level. The West would face a difficult question: how to respond.

“Now is the time for that report. We have to be ready and come in early. Otherwise, a situation will arise where nuclear weapons have been used, and once that threshold has been crossed, there is no going back.”

According to Ellwood, we are in a very dangerous situation. However, in his view, NATO’s hands are tied.

“NATO, the world’s greatest military power, is sitting on its hands and is unable to formally participate in the war, but the NATO countries individually and the coalition supporting Ukraine have worked very well.”

Ellwood emphasizes how, in such a situation, the Jef forces led by Britain rise in value. Finland has been part of these Northern European rapid response forces since 2017.

“For me, Jef is the team that can quickly respond to Russia’s actions. I fear that NATO will have difficulties in finding a consensus and getting support for its actions from Hungary and Turkey. They are already slowing down your application.”