HS-Gallup | The Coalition Party ranks first in the regional elections, the support of the Greens remains the most in the municipal elections

The first regional elections will be held on Sunday. HS is evaluating the recent Gallup, which would be a success for each party.

Coalition is leaving number one towards the first regional elections next Sunday, according to a recent HS regional poll.

The party receives 20.7 percent support in the poll. In second place is the Sdp with 19 per cent support and in third place the center with 16.7 per cent readings.

The situation is quite similar to the result of last summer’s municipal elections, when the votes of Helsinki outside the regional elections are not taken into account.

Forty-five percent of respondents could not or did not want to say which party would vote in the regional election, or said they would not go to the polls. The figure is clearly higher than at the same time before the last municipal elections.

Poll at the time of making, 52 percent of all respondents had voted or were sure to vote.

Kantar Director of Research at TNS Sakari Nurmela estimates that, in the light of the poll and other publicly available information, turnout could fall somewhere between the readings of the last municipal elections and those of the European elections.

The turnout in the last municipal elections was 55.1 per cent, the weakest since 1945. In the last European elections, the figure was 42.7 per cent.

“Here are the chances that the turnout is not as catastrophic as the worst fears have been thought,” says Nurmela.

HS: n the survey gives one picture of the support options for regional election day.

Still, it is now more difficult than usual to predict the election result, as this is the first regional election.

With many factors, above all final turnout can have a big impact on what the outcome is like.

HS evaluates the recent Gallup support, which could be a success for each party.

For the Coalition Party, victory is only number one

The opposition coalition will run in the regional elections as a poll leader and thus as a pre-favorite. In addition to HS’s Gallup, it had a clear number one position Yle recently published in the regional election ballot.

The party has managed to maintain the leverage it received after winning the municipal elections last summer.

Both Kantar TNS’s Nurmela and election researcher Sami Borg The University of Tampere estimates that the Coalition Party can only really be considered successful in the regional elections if the party holds its number one poll.

The Coalition Party’s contract is made a little more difficult by the fact that the people of Helsinki do not vote in the regional elections.

If Helsinki’s votes are removed from the party’s result in the last municipal elections, the result will decrease by 0.7 percentage points. In the poll of the HS, the Coalition Party’s regional election support hits exactly this figure, at 20.7 per cent.

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“If the Coalition takes the lead in the election and gets a neck of almost the same size as in the municipal election, that would be a great success,” says Borg.

It is traditionally thought that the Coalition can benefit if turnout is low. Coalition members are considered conscientious voters.

In the HS regional election poll, 59 per cent of Coalition members say they have already voted or will vote for sure. The figure in the poll is slightly higher in the Greens and roughly the same in the SDP and the Left Alliance. The most likely to go to the polls are those who plan to leave or have already left, 73 per cent.

The weakest enthusiasm is among the supporters of basic Finland.

Second place for the SDP would not be a shame

Prime Minister’s Party Sdp has told methat one of its goals, like the Coalition Party, is to be the largest party in the regional elections in terms of support percentages.

In the poll of HS, Sdp is firmly in second place. Defeating polls and ranking first would be a clear success for the SDP.

Even a strong second place would still not be a shame, especially in the sense that the election period is long and party support is traditionally dwindling in government and growing in opposition.

In the poll of the HS, the SDP’s figures are slightly better than last summer’s municipal elections and the previous parliamentary elections, even if the votes in Helsinki are removed. According to Nurmela, achieving this would already be a good achievement.

“It would be a success to get past the results.”

In the municipal elections, the party fell short of the figures by 17.7 per cent. Without the votes in Helsinki, the result of the municipal elections would have been 0.6 percentage points better.

The center benefits from the absence of Helsinki

In HS’s poll, the ruling party’s reading of the center falls quite exactly the same as the result of the municipal elections without Helsinki.

If the party reached this and overtook the Basic Finns, ie took third place, it could certainly celebrate the result.

“Third place and the renewal of the success of the municipal elections would certainly be a good achievement, considering what the party’s parliamentary election support is,” says Nurmela.

The national order of entry is, of course, only one corner to the election result. Elections are held in councils in the regions, and success on election day must also be measured by their number.

Nationwide investments can still have psychological and thus general political significance. This is probably not the least in the case of the center, given that the party has struggled with historically weak support and a difficult government position.

When evaluating the center, it is worth remembering that the party will benefit the most from the fact that the people of Helsinki will not vote in the elections. If Helsinki’s votes are removed from the results of the last municipal elections, the reading in the city center will be 1.9 percentage points higher than it was.

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“Let’s just say the center has a good chance of explaining the election result in a way that is even a big win for them,” Borg says.

President of the Center Annika Saarikko has formulated the party’s goal itself so that the majority of regions should be center-led.

Made by the Association of Finnish Municipalities in the autumn calculation promised the center first place in nine of the 21 districts, while the Coalition was gaining first place in six areas, the SDP in three areas and the Rkp in two areas. In addition to these, the Coalition Party and the Sdp would share first place in one area.

For basic Finns, voting is very important

The opposition party for basic Finns would be a clear success if, contrary to HS-Gallup’s readings, it reached third place in the national results of the regional elections.

However, low turnout is a threat to the party. Basic Finns have a way to put on their jackets if the people do not go to the polls. HS’s Gallup also suggests that activity in the ranks of basic Finns may be lower than among supporters of other parties.

According to Borg, a good result for basic Finns would be that the party would get close to the support measurements made during the regional elections. Measurements before the municipal elections were significantly missed, as turnout was low.

Nurmela reminds that it is typical for supporters of basic Finns to make a voting decision only in the final meters. Much may depend on the extent to which the party eventually mobilizes its people.

Basic Finns are broadly supported, for example, by the fact that the party has managed to maintain its national support after the new chairman. Riikka Purra took the reins in the summer.

The party is also receiving little traction in the absence of Helsinki. If the votes of Helsinki are removed from the result of the municipal elections, the result of basic Finns will be 0.7 percentage points higher.

In the HS poll, the result of the municipal elections is slightly exceeded, even if this is taken into account.

Reaching the Greens their own goal would be a victory in the fight

The fact that the people of Helsinki do not vote in the regional elections hits the Greens hardest. The removal of Helsinki’s votes from the municipal election results will deprive the Greens of 1.5 percentage points of support.

The Greens Maria Ohisaloa substitute Iiris Suomela has defined the party’s goal regionally in such a way that each region should be able to improve the municipal election result in that region.

Nationwide, the result of the municipal elections without Helsinki has also been considered a bar. Calculated in this way, the result would be 9.1 percent.

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HS’s Gallup reading, at 8.3 percent, is now below that.

In the light of HS-Gallup, the party could be considered a winning victory if the polls are overcome and its own goal is achieved.

“Preserving the still life in relation to the municipal elections would certainly be a good goal,” says Nurmela.

According to Borg, the result can be considered poor if it is close to 8 percent or even less, as in Yle ‘s measurement. This is especially true when it comes to the party’s support potential and the fact that, for example, the party received readings of 11.5 per cent in the last parliamentary elections.

For the Left Alliance, improving the municipal elections would be a good result

The ruling party The Left Alliance is also one of the parties that suffers a bit from the absence of Helsinki. The result of the municipal elections will be 0.7 percentage points if the votes of the capital are taken away.

In the poll of the HS, the support of the Left Alliance is about at the level of the last municipal elections, when the votes in Helsinki have been counted. Achieving and overcoming this would be a good accomplishment.

The Left Alliance can be supported in the regional elections by the large number of Sote workers in the party’s supporters. Borg recalls. Election issues are a strong area of ​​the party in general.

Rkp, Kd and Movement You can now be satisfied with exceeding the municipal election figures

HS’s Gallup is pretty much predicting municipal election figures for the RKP and the Christian Democrats, which would be a good result for them to exceed.

At the RKP, Helsinki’s absence from the election is likely to cut support. For Christian Democrats, the effect is somewhat positive.

For business, the lack of votes in Helsinki is also a challenge. However, in the poll of the HS, the result in the regional elections would be better than in the municipal elections, even if this is taken into account. Reaching the polls would be a good result.

This is how the study was done

  • Kantar TNS carried out the study on behalf of HS.

  • The poll asked which party or other faction candidate the person would vote for if the regional elections were held now.

  • The research material was collected from 4 to 16 January 2022. A total of 2,002 people were interviewed for the study.

  • The sample of the survey represents the voting age population of Finland, excluding those living in Helsinki and the province of Åland. The material was collected through telephone interviews.

  • The margin of error in the study is about 2.2 percentage points in the direction of the largest parties.

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