HS Gallup | Support for the center collapsed to a historic low

The center support has fallen to a record low, according to Helsingin Sanomat’s recent party support survey.

According to the study, the center would get 10.4 percent of the votes if the parliamentary elections were held now. The drop from September is 1.4 percentage points, which is an unusually large change.

The center’s support has never been this weak during HS’s current support measurement. Comparable results are available from October 2011.

The center support has previously fallen below eleven percent only twice during HS-galup’s measurement history. In September 2020 and January 2021, the party’s support was 10.8 percent.

The center gathered its strength in the municipal elections at the beginning of the year, after which in February the support was 14 percent. Since then, the decline has continued, with the exception of September.

The center is still the fourth largest party, but the fifth largest party, the Greens, is not far behind with nine percent support.

The Center and the Greens are both governing parties, and they have clashed numerous times on issues such as the environment.

Research from the background material, it can be estimated that only about half of those who voted for the center would certainly give their support to the party if the parliamentary elections were held now.

Just a month ago, the number was 10 percentage points higher, which means that a significant part of the decrease in the center is probably due to the fact that many of those who voted for the party have moved to the stands.

Central people seem to have also moved to the ranks of the coalition and basic Finns.

The center’s hold on those who voted for the party in the municipal elections is clearly weaker than the coalition, the Left Alliance, Basic Finns and Sdp.

Nothing so radical has happened in politics or the activities of the center that would explain the change with certainty.

“Value conservatism unites basic Finns, the coalition and the center, but now especially the coalition is strong and the center is weak,” says Kantar’s research director Sakari Nurmela.

Fresh In HS’s support measurement, the changes were relatively large anyway.

The Coalition is still the most popular party with 24.2 percent support. The increase was 0.6 percentage points.

It is the second highest support after October 2011. The party was even more popular in the June 2022 survey.

Sdp is the second most popular party with 19 percent support. Sdp has come down from July’s 20.1 percent support by 1.1 percentage points, of which 0.2 percentage points during the latest measurement.

The period of the fall coincided with the prime minister Sanna Marini (sd) commotion about summer celebrations.

Basic Finns support has increased steadily since June 2022. The support of basic Finns decreased by 1.2 percentage points, which was the second most significant change after the centre.

Of the red error parties, only the support of the Left Alliance increased. The support rate increased by 0.3 percentage points. The last time the party’s popularity was at this level was in March 2022. Based on this measurement, it seems that the drop in support during the NATO membership debate is over.

The parties that make up Marin’s government now enjoy 51.3 percent confidence. In September, the corresponding figure was 53 and in August 53.1 percent.