HS-Gallup | Basic Finns became the most popular party just past the SDP, support of the Greens returned

The changes in the party support measurement are very small and fit into the research margin of error.

Opposition party Basic Finns have been wedged past the Prime Minister’s Party Sdp to become Finland’s most popular party, according to a recent HS poll.

If the parliamentary elections were held now, 21 per cent of the voters would vote for basic Finns, according to the poll. The party’s support increased by 0.4 percentage points to the previous one To the HS poll compared to.

However, the SDP is still in the hands of the basic Finns with 20.8 per cent support. Its support weakened by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous measurement.

The third most popular party in the January poll is the opposition party, the Coalition Party, whose support remained unchanged at 16.2 per cent.

Fourth place is held by the ruling party center, whose support, in turn, weakened by 0.6 percentage points and is now 10.8 per cent.

The biggest single change in the poll came from the ruling party’s support for the Greens, which improved by 0.7 percentage points after a clear decrease from the previous measurement. The Greens are still the fifth most popular party, now with 10.6 per cent support.

So there is only a very small difference in support for the Greens and the center.

All changes in the measurement are small and within the margin of error of the study.

7.7 per cent would vote for the ruling party Left Alliance and 4.3 per cent for the ruling party Rkp. The opposition Christian Democrats would get 3.7 per cent of the vote, the opposition party Movement Now 2.4 per cent of the vote and the rest of the group a total of 2.5 per cent.

HS-Gallup research data were collected between December 21 and January 15.

At the time of measurement, the most heated discussion with the Foreign Minister Pekka Haaviston (green) related to the al-Hol camp on the rotation of posts in the Committee on Constitutional Affairs had ended, which may now be reflected in a return of support for the Greens.

“It is often the case that what goes up or down quickly may quickly come in the other direction,” says Kantar TNS, director of research at the survey. Sakari Nurmela with reference to the greens.

The slight decline in SDP support this month may be partly explained by the recovery of the Greens, although the changes cannot be seen as direct counter-movements, he estimates.

“Part of the decline in the Greens benefited the SDP last month, but now that the situation has begun to return to normal on the green side, it is reflected in the SDP’s support. There is nothing more dramatic about it. ”

Basic Finns the increase in support was relatively small in a recent measurement. A greater increase in support was seen even before Christmas. Since last summer, the party’s support has strengthened by more than three percentage points in the HS poll.

According to Nurmela, basic Finns are now gaining new supporters from the ranks of those who do not necessarily go to the polls regularly.

In addition, the party has a meeting surface with both the Coalition and the center’s traditional electorate, which benefits it.

“There has been a lot of talk about the fact that the Basic Finns have moved more to the right in their statements than they have been,” says Nurmela.

“One would think that then, for one reason or another, both the Center Party and the Coalition Party would be dissatisfied with their own party, who perceive Basic Finns as a more attractive option because of both value conservatism and pleasant economic statements,” he continues.

Their the proportion who could not or did not want to say which party would now vote in the parliamentary elections or said they would not go to the polls was 30 per cent in this month’s HS poll.

The current share of the uncertain is close to the long-term average.

According to the survey, the most strongly supporters of their party population were in basic Finns, 53 percent.

In relative terms, the Greens, on the other hand, had the least number of very confident supporters of their own party, 27 per cent. Other parties ranked in between.

Sanna Marinin (sd) the parties that make up the government now enjoy 54.2 percent confidence. A month ago, the corresponding figure was 54.7 percent.

This is how the support measurement was made

■ Kantar TNS, on behalf of HS, investigated the parties’ parliamentary election support.

■ The material was collected through telephone interviews from 21 December to 15 January 2021.

■ A total of 2,610 people were interviewed for the study.

■ Respondents were asked which party or faction candidate they would vote for if the parliamentary elections were held now.

■ The margin of error in the study is about 2.1 percentage points for the largest parties in its direction.


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