HS Environment Putin’s violence is also explained by fear of a fossil-free future – “For Russia, this may or may not be a moment,” says the researcher.

Climate change and a fossil-free future is one explanation for the fact that Russia is now in a hurry to redraw the map of Europe by new means.

They are not the real cause of the war in Ukraine, but they add to the president Vladimir Putin government fears. They have also created a time window in which Russia wants to act.

This is the assessment of two researchers interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat who study the intersections of the environment, energy policy and safety.

“Without a doubt, it is one motivator,” says Professor of Environmental Policy at the Alexander Institute in Russia Brother-Pekka Tynkkynen.

“If you look at where Putin’s power comes from, it’s the capture of the oil and gas sector by a small district and the control of their cash flows.”

That handle of power is losing its leverage as Europe seeks to break free from fossil fuels. Therefore, from Russia’s point of view, it will be easier to make the most appalling movements in these years of transition, when Europe is still dependent on Russian gas supplies.

“For Russia, this may be a moment now or never,” says an analyst at the European Union Security Research Institute, a Bulgarian Jana Popkostova. He has specifically studied Russian gas projects.

“In the future, Russia may no longer have the same torque towards Europe.”

Russia machined war in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and midwifed two separatist territories there. Now it has recognized their independence and launched a full-scale offensive war against the whole of Ukraine early on Thursday.

Russia’s final goals are unclear.

Tynkkynen analyzes Russia’s motives through the fears of the Putin regime, and climate and energy concerns come in fourth. Popkostova also stresses that concerns about a fossil-free future are not, of course, the immediate cause of this attack.

The first fear is Ukraine’s complete drift away from Moscow’s sphere of influence deeper into the arms of the democratic West. Putin considers Ukraine to be in Russia’s interests and, according to the speech that triggered the hostilities, does not even consider it a real state, but a creation of the Soviet Union.

Another concern is the fear of your own skin and the future of your own government. The Putin regime is worried that the Russians will start modeling the pro-democracy and pro-Western color revolutions in Ukraine and other neighboring countries.

“In addition, the desire for power and the desire to build an empire are more sentimental background forces,” says Tynkkynen.

“These are then linked to fear of the future of the empire in a situation where the energy shift is a power.”

Energy transfer means, for example, abandoning coal in Europe and significantly reducing the use of oil and natural gas, in line with EU climate law and the Paris Agreement. It will be replaced by wind power, solar power, electric vehicles, geothermal energy and the bio, hydrogen and circular economy.

Popkostova points out that Russia has been very skeptical about Europe’s ability to make the transition at the pace it wants.

“I did my dissertation on Russian gas pipelines in 2009. Even then, there was a lot of talk in Europe that energy dependence on Russia should be reduced. Little has happened since then. ”

In Central Europe, natural gas is still a major source of heat and 45% of imported gas still comes from Russia.

“In addition, gas is needed in various industries,” Popkostova says.

“It’s good to remember that the net zero carbon world will also need oil and gas, and Russia will be able to produce them cheaply.”

Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has only grown since Russia took over the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and launched a war in eastern Ukraine. In 2019, about 60 percent of all Russian exports to EU countries were energy products.

Germany’s dependence will be exacerbated for a long time by the country’s abandonment of nuclear power.

A stub believes that Russia may also seek to slow down Europe’s energy transition.

According to him, it is hardly a coincidence that Russia kept gas supplies to Europe to a minimum during the winter. It exacerbated energy price spikes across Europe, including in Finland.

“The goal was to get the EU on its knees in this situation, when Putin wants to challenge Ukraine. It creates domestic political pressure. ”

Popkostova points out that replacing Russian gas with shipments of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), for example, can be very expensive.

“It has to compete on price with Asia. In December, I watched in real time how lng ships traveling to Asia turned around as prices in Europe rose to record highs. Their movements cannot be politically dictated. ”

Of course, in this case, too, it may be the opposite of what Russia would like. If the price of the energy sources it provides rises, people will switch to renewable alternatives even more reluctantly. Germany is already responding to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine by suspending the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.

Vice-Chairman of the Russian Security Council, former President Dmitry Medvedev responded to the German announcement on Twitter: “Welcome to a new brave world where Europeans will very soon be able to pay € 2,000 per thousand cubic meters of natural gas!”

Russian however, the unilateral economy is ultimately much more vulnerable than Europe’s diversified economy.

Russia has not developed new footsteps for its economy during Putin’s twenty-year rule. Revenues are still from oil and gas, which are exported abroad quite refined. Other major Russian exports are still rare.

This, too, underscores the importance of the current time window in military action.

“Now Russia has the money to fight this fight,” says Tynkkynen. “Foreign exchange reserves are huge.”

According to Popkostova, those reserves built with fossil money show that Russia has been preparing for the day of the attack for more than a decade: the size of the fund has more than doubled and its assets have been transferred out of dollars in case of sanctions.

“In addition, Russia has taken out loans from China and agreed gas deals with China in Chinese currency,” Popkostova explains.

“This wasn’t a crazy man’s quick whim.”

On the other hand, Europe is still an extremely important market for Russia, and China will not replace it in an instant.

In addition, the rapid warming of the climate will also cause costs for Russia as a colossal repair contract for the built environment. Two-thirds of Russia’s land area is under permafrost. In those areas, roads, cities and also fossil fuel equipment and pipelines will suffer as the frost softens. Houses have begun to collapse.

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Benefits can also be obtained, especially in agriculture. Western sanctions have forced Russia to focus on its own food production, and global warming is making the new large areas cultivable, at least in theory.

However, according to Tynkkynen, it is unclear whether the soil in those areas is as suitable for cultivation as in the current granary areas in Russia, which are already drying up.

Russian it would by no means have to shackle its future so firmly into gas pipelines and oil barrels. Rather, in Tynkkynen’s view, it is a question of the current administration being so tangled in its power to gas and oil revenues that it is unable to get rid of them.

Russia could also be a winner in the arena of a new energy revolution. It has a huge surface area for wind and solar power as well as diverse mineral resources. In addition, it is located between the major consumer markets in Europe and China. The tradition in technology is long.

“But instead of Russia investing in these, it decides to invest in warfare,” Tynkkynen says.

“Putin imagines he is building a strong Russia, but in reality he is destroying it.”

Valued the incubator Bruegel warned in its report last yearthat it is time for Europe to begin to wake up to the geopolitical consequences of its energy transition, the biggest of which is its relationship with Russia.

According to Bruegel, Europe should help Russia move towards renewable energy. Then Europe could continue to buy energy from Russia.

Even so, Tynkkys thinks it would be worthwhile for the West to try to offer Russia carrots as well as sanctions in the future.

“I would love to see a major joint European-Russian investment program in renewable energy,” says Tynkkynen.

“But first you need a stick big enough to stop Putin’s desires for war. Putin will not leave Ukraine and Belarus, but Russia may leave. This requires a carrot, a promise of a mutually beneficial future. ”