HS Analysis | There was a surprising twist in the power play of the commission: The luster of the defense portfolio dimmed

Brussels

Next next week, you can find out which portfolio the Finnish commissioner candidate has Henna Virkkunen (kok) is getting a new commission. Chairman of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen is currently preparing the portfolio division and is expected to reveal the composition of the commission possibly as early as Wednesday.

There are a lot of rumors about the portfolio division, very little information. Negotiations are held confidentially in a small circle. According to one diplomat, there are only two people in Brussels who know about the division of portfolios: von der Leyen and his chief of staff Björn Seibert.

It may be that the final distribution of the portfolios is not yet known to them either, because until the very last meters von der Leyen has tried to get more female commissioner candidates from the member states. Heavier portfolios have been used as a carrot for countries sending a female candidate.

It is known that the fiercest competition takes place for portfolios related to competitiveness. Strengthening Europe’s competitiveness is one of the EU’s most important projects in the coming years. Both von der Leye and the leaders of the EU countries have taken this line.

Like this the Finnish government is also aiming for the portfolio.

“Our goal is a portfolio related to competitiveness”, the Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (kok) said in his speech at the Turku European Forum at the end of August.

“This could include elements of internal market development, digitalisation, research and innovation, energy and so on.”

Politico speculatesthat Virkkusen would have a portfolio related to technology, digitalization or innovations. According to the newspaper, this would suit the member of parliament who sat on the industry committee and the former minister of education.

The title level doesn’t say anything about the meaning of the portfolio yet. Digital regulation was one of the EU’s biggest and most controversial projects in the period that ended, but the massive legal packages have already been approved, and now the implementation period is ahead. The Commissioner for Innovation and Research, on the other hand, was one of the Commission’s most invisible figures.

However, the title and the concrete content of the task will only become clear when von der Leyen announces the division of portfolios and the tasks assigned to the commissioners.

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“Von der Leyen must find something meaningful to do for five years for 26 commissioners.”

Generally The weight of the commissioner’s portfolio can be assessed using three criteria: How much budgetary power does the commissioner use? Does the commissioner’s task belong to the core of the EU’s competence and does it include genuine legislative power? And thirdly, does the commissioner have his own directorate responsible for the preparation of legislation?

So the title alone does not tell about influence, and for example the duties of the Vice-President of the Commission are not valued at all in Brussels: the title is great and the position in the formal hierarchy of the Commission is high, but if the commissioner does not have his own directorate-general and his task is only to coordinate the work of other commissioners, the power is limited.

One such vice-presidential position is already known: von der Leyen has said that he will establish the position of vice-president in charge of easing regulation in the new commission. It is not yet known who will get the job.

Briefcases sharing is a complex puzzle piece.

Von der Leyen must find something meaningful to do for five years for 26 commissioners. Tasks are not assigned based on qualifications alone. The end result must be geographically balanced and please large member countries.

In addition to portfolios linked to competitiveness, great expectations are placed on, for example, the next Commissioner for Budget, Enlargement and Agriculture. The EU is preparing for the accession of Ukraine, which requires a thorough reform of the common budget and agricultural policy. The commission’s proposal for the next multi-year budget will come within a year, and lobbying is already heating up.

The first for the first time, the EU is also getting a defense commissioner. This is what von der Leyen promised in his line paper in the summer. Strengthening European defense is also one of the most urgent tasks of the next few years.

Contrary to what one might expect, the task of the defense commissioner is not of particular interest to the member states. There are many doubts about the Commissioner’s real power.

The EU does not have its own army, and according to the treaties, the common budget cannot finance “expenditures that have a military or defense significance”. The member states firmly insist that the organization of defense is in national hands, and equally they watch that the EU does not start messing around on NATO’s property. The thoughts of joint defense procurement led by the Commission may also be too much for the member states.

The new defense commissioner also has to fight for living space between two influential colleagues, the foreign policy representative and the internal market commissioner. The EU is seen to play a role above all in strengthening the defense industry and, for example, in the area of ​​harmonization and standardization, and this is traditionally the internal market commissioner’s core area.

What the role of the defense commissioner will turn out to be depends on the political acumen and the sharpness of the elbows of the person chosen for the position.