HS Analysis | The right-wing government is now somewhat certain

After the weekend’s crisis episode, the government negotiations are moving at a faster pace, but there are still many difficult negotiations ahead, writes HS’s political reporter Teemu Luukka.

The government of the creator Petteri Orpon The government negotiations led by (kok) will continue normally on Monday through the weekend multiphase crisis after.

The seeds of the crisis were already sown at the beginning of the week, when, at the request of basic Finns, the negotiations of groups other than the immigration and climate groups were suspended.

The problem was not so much the focus on those themes, but the Rkp in particular was irritated by the way basic Finns set conditions for others. It was Rkp’s turn to step into the driver’s seat for a while.

Rkp did not accept compromises on immigration and the climate on Friday, as the other parties negotiating the government program at Säätytalo did. In addition to the Rkp, the coalition, the Basic Finns and the Christian Democrats participate in the negotiations.

Rkp wanted to remind you that four parties meet at Säätytalo, not just the coalition and the Basic Finns.

Usually the moderately behaving Rkp organized an extraordinary operation, typical of the center, in which it made the government follow the door, behind which the party pondered its next steps from hour to hour.

The general belief, apparently also among the parties negotiating at Säätytalo, was that the Rkp would accept the compromises after a few hours of discussion. That’s how cheerful the other chairmen were about the compromise on Friday.

Rkp surprised by taking a risk.

The operation was considered a risk by the chairman of Basic Finns Riikka Purra. He already announced on Friday that the government negotiations will not continue with this composition if changes are required to the compromises reached.

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I bite The absolute threat posed to Rkp could have been inexperience, which certainly only irritated Rkp more. Rkp accepted the climate compromise, but demanded a few additional clauses important to it in the immigration document.

However, the terms were drawn up in such a way that there is no reason for anyone to overturn the negotiations because of them. Henriksson himself said on Saturday that the party’s demands are ones that are easy for other chairmen to accept.

However, the Rkp did not get everything through when the chairmen met on Saturday.

Passed the changes were such that it would have been difficult for Purra to overthrow the right-wing government in progress because of them.

Helsingin Sanomat’s sources according to the immigration registrations, there were mainly minor clarifications, according to which extortions must be carried out taking into account the marginal conditions of the constitution, respecting the ban on the return of asylum seekers or safeguarding the rights of children.

It would not have looked good if Perussuomalaiset had overturned the government negotiations, because the Rkp demanded an entry in the government program, according to which immigration extortion must be carried out in compliance with the constitution.

With an episode is likely to have both positive and negative effects in terms of further work.

The effects are mostly positive, although Purra certainly remembers that Rkp humiliated him while the party council meeting was in progress.

However, it left some kind of wound in the negotiations. Now also Perussuomalaiset can do the same as Rkp, but Rkp cannot use this card many times.

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The winner is also the coalition, because the negotiations progressed. The most important thing for the Christian Democrats is that the negotiations continue and that the party will soon be in government.

Saturday the events also revealed that information does not flow in the best possible way in government negotiations.

Originally, the Basic Finns demanded that the immigration and climate issues must be resolved before other issues are started to be prepared.

According to Purra, however, he did not define a strict schedule ending at 6 p.m. on Friday, but according to him, it was made by the chairmen of the parties meeting at Säätytalo based on Orpo’s proposal.

Purra said at the party council meeting on Saturday that he too thought the original schedule was tight and would have given more time.

However, the Rkp got the impression that the schedule was set specifically by basic Finns. This perception easily arose, because it was Purra who kept the schedule on display.

It was also strange that Orpo announced on Friday that the parties had reached an agreement on immigration, although this was not the case in reality. Right after Orpo’s speech, Rkp announced that it has not accepted the compromise.

Vagueness can indicate a management problem or at least a communication problem, which easily cause misunderstandings and irritation in otherwise difficult negotiations.

Which in this case, both Perussuomalaiset and Rkp were successful. Style points for operations should not be distributed, only goals are decisive.

Basic Finns can be thanked that now immigration, which is most important to basic Finns, no longer prevents the birth of a right-wing government. According to HS’s information, the climate compromise was rather short and still requires a lot of work. According to information from HS, the work will continue already on Monday.

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The coalition’s method of bringing a huge number of experts to the negotiations probably helped in the fact that in the end the compromises were reached quickly in a few days, of course with the additional time required by the Rkp.

Really difficult negotiations are still ahead, among other things, on the financing and strengthening of the social and health system.

The most difficult of all is the decision on the adjustment package of six billion euros and the related savings of possibly around four billion euros.

Changes to the rules of working life may also become difficult negotiations, when the coalition demands stricter changes than the Basic Finns are ready for.

Savings become more difficult for each negotiator, the more concrete cuts are started to be hammered out.

It is easier to talk about six billion euros on a general level than concrete cuts of millions of euros. Especially if the decisions affect the viability of the negotiator’s own area of ​​residence or the support of acquaintances.

Orphan reminded on Saturday that the weekend crisis should not have come as a surprise, because the negotiations were expected to be difficult.

They are still difficult, although after this week it can be said with almost certainty that a right-wing government is coming to Finland, which will possibly make the toughest cuts to public spending since the 1990s.

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