HS analysis The quietest is sitting on a powder keg – Ukraine’s Zelensky has Eljas Erko’s poker, but in one case the country is stronger than Finland in the autumn of 1939

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyi again demonstrated his serenity on Thursday.

He welcomed the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Paris, praised their “constructive nature” and praised the intention to resume talks in a couple of weeks in Berlin.

The talks agreed in principle on a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists are in control.

So far, however, ceasefires have ripped that one off since 2014.

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Zelenskyi has also reassured this week that the situation is “under control” and that there is no need to panic over tensions in eastern Ukraine. Although some foreign countries are already emptying their embassies, Zelensky said an Russian attack is not “inevitable”.

At the same time At that time, more than one hundred thousand Russian soldiers have been stationed on the borders of Ukraine. In 2014, Russia seized less of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. Now it is feared to attack and grab more.

“What’s new? Hasn’t this been the reality for eight years? ” Zelenskyi acknowledged last week.

For a Finn Zelensky’s carelessness may be reminiscent of Finland’s then foreign minister Eljas Erkon surface level of carefree in the fall of 1939.

In September, Erkko told MPs that the Soviet Union was “more benevolent” than before. “The Russians are bluffing,” he said in October, estimating room for negotiation.

In early November, he estimated that the Soviet Union wanted to “scare” and that the country’s attitude had since “significantly improved”. On November 20, he said the government at evening school did not believe the Soviet Union would attack.

On November 30, the Soviet Union invaded and the Winter War began.

From backgrounds Zelenskyi and Erkko are different. Zelenskyi is a former TV comedian. Erkko was the main owner of Helsingin Sanomat, a former Member of Parliament and already in his third ministerial term.

But on top of the powder keg, they both chose the same strategy: poker has to be kept, even if it boils inside.

Zelensky the purpose of peace is not to provoke Russia, to prevent panic in Ukraine and to ensure the continued flow of Western arms and other aid to the country.

“There is little else that can be done about it. He does not have to wake the Ukrainians to the danger of war, because the situation is known quite precisely. In Finland, waking up to the advent and inevitability of war was less gradual, ”Director of the Foreign Policy Institute Mika Aaltola compares.

Together in the case of Zelensky the position is stronger than that of Erko and Finland as a whole in the autumn of 1939.

Erkko unnecessarily sought significant help from the Nordic countries, Britain and the United States, for example.

“The League of Nations also pulled its last. The support was normative, ”says Aaltola.

Zelensky’s Ukraine, on the other hand, has received a considerable amount of the kind of weapons and other support that Finland unnecessarily hoped for from its friends during the Winter War.

“The situation is different today precisely because the teachings of the 1930s are remembered so well,” Aaltola estimates.

“The importance of preventative deterrence is now known. If the enemy is willing to go to war, the other side is forced to have a working deterrent, that is, the ability to put the hard on the hard. ”

Zelensky there may also be genuine optimism behind the serenity.

“There is a pretty strong idea in Ukraine that Russia will bulge and nothing will necessarily happen.”

This is exactly what Eljas Erkko thought in the autumn of 1939.

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