HS analysis The female presidents of the Cold War Eastern Bloc are strong as NATO’s next Secretary General – the military alliance wants a strong line towards Russia

Western the NATO Alliance is looking in its direction, once again. The end of the Afghanistan operation with a rapid withdrawal led the organization to emphasize its traditional role, namely the collective defense of member countries.

This means emphasizing the threats represented by Russia and, for example, the key role of the Baltic Sea region in defense plans.

Meanwhile, NATO and its Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have emphasized the growing economic and military importance of China, which NATO should take into account. Between these lines shines the leadership state, the United States ,’s view of China and the world going by.

President Sauli Niinistö Stoltenberg, who held a joint press conference on Monday, had to admit that he did not know where NATO’s journey would go.

“The new strategic concept will be decided at the Madrid summit next year,” Stoltenberg said.

“And we don’t know exactly what will be accepted there.”

Madrid A NATO meeting will be held at the end of June next year, marking the end of the then nearly eight-year term as Secretary-General of Stoltenberg, a 62-year-old Norwegian. So future strategies are taken care of by someone else.

There is a consensus in the gossip mill in Brussels that a woman should finally be elected. In other words, if a man is chosen, he would have to be superior in some way. No such superman is visible.

An American political online magazine Politico published an extensive review of potential Stoltenberg successors in July. The top candidates were three women, all of whom are former presidents of the Cold War Eastern Bloc.

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There is a consensus in the gossip mill in Brussels that a woman should finally be elected.

Curriculum vitae by far the number one is the ex-president of Croatia Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who has served not only as the country’s president, foreign minister and European minister, but also as NATO’s Deputy Secretary General.

However, Grabar-Kitarović has two problems: unnecessarily right-wing opinions and unnecessarily good relations with the Russian president. Vladimir Putin with.

Former President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaitė the problem, on the other hand, is the opposite: in NATO circles, his choice is suspected in vain to annoy Putin. This, in turn, leaves room for the Estonian option, ie the recent resignation of the President Kersti to Kaljulaid, which, however, is more economic than armed.

Eastern European candidates are strong, as the military alliance wants to keep a firm line towards Russia. Countries that Russia occasionally reads as “near abroad” or at least some sort of former lobby are a good choice for Moscow’s annoyance.

NATO has 30 member countries, but at the heart of decision-making are, in addition to the United States, Britain, France and Germany. The British would like the post of Secretary General to emphasize their role in European security arrangements.

For the same reason, France and Germany are not warming up to the British proposals. Besides, if the candidate is an ex-prime minister Theresa May, many Britons may oppose their own proposal.

Italy could offer a former EU foreign policy representative Frederica Mogherinia, but in Washington he is hardly excited.

To the question, whether NATO would defend non – aligned Finland, Stoltenberg replied directly on Monday from the textbook: NATO ‘s Fifth Article, ie common defense, applies to member states, and it does not apply to others.

That is a fact, but the tone of the Secretary-General’s speech was a little different three weeks ago when he spoke on his visit to the United States. Brookings Institute on the occasion.

“There’s a plot between membership and opt-out,” Stoltenberg defined, referring to the Defense Alliance’s various partnerships.

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The candidates in Eastern Europe are strong, as the military alliance wants to keep a firm line towards Russia.

Finland the plot has been a bit strange since the 2014 Wales summit: the “partners of empowered opportunities” or the EOP group. In addition to Finland and Sweden, it originally included Georgia, Australia and Jordan. Ukraine joined the group last year.

Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO’s doors are permanently open to Finland and so they are probably to Sweden as well. It seems to be so and so with other EOP countries.

Finland’s NATO door will probably remain open, no matter the Secretary General. If the general secretary is Kaljulaid, more and more Finns could peek out the open door to the side of the bar.

However, the opinion of the people’s anti-NATO majority is unlikely to change: it has hardly changed during the periods of the Danish or Norwegian Secretary-General.

Turkey the dreams of a Turkish secretary-general seem to go definitively last week when the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened to expel ambassadors from ten countries for human rights commentary. With the exception of the ambassadors of Finland, Sweden and New Zealand, those who have been threatened with eviction are diplomats from NATO countries.

Both Niinistö and Stoltenberg did not comment on Erdoğan’s threats because, in their own words, they relied on media information.