HS Analysis | The end of the election begins: Finland’s next prime minister will be Orpo, Purra or Marin

Helsingin Sanomat’s recent support survey predicts exciting elections, as the top three are very close to each other.

Parliamentary elections the final chapter has begun.

Early voting begins on Wednesday, and Finland’s next highest decision-makers will be elected on April 2.

The starting position of Loppukiri is revealed in Helsingin Sanomat’s Tuesday publication of the support survey.

Read more: Kokoomoo is still the most popular, with Sdp and Perussuomalaiset in the ranks

Particularly great interest is focused on the top three, as one of them will become the convener of the government and eventually the prime minister’s party.

Finland’s next prime minister, the country’s most significant power user and face abroad is most likely Petteri Orpo, Riikka Purra or Sanna Marin.

Coalition continues to be the most popular party in Finland, but according to HS’s support survey, its support has decreased since November.

At that time, 24.2 percent of voters would have voted for the coalition, but now only 20.8 percent. The decrease from the previous measurement was 0.5 percentage points.

This is quite typical for a party at the top of the polls before the parliamentary elections. Before the 2019 elections, Sdp’s support fell from 22.4 percent to 17.7 percent in the six months before the 2019 elections.

The same happened to the center, whose support collapsed from 26.2 percent in December to 21.1 percent in 2015.

However, both became Prime Minister’s parties.

Last In the past few days, in many regional measurements, the Basic Finns have done well, and some of the forecasters have already declared the Basic Finns a somewhat certain winner.

Read more: Expert’s calculation: Basic Finns becoming the largest party

That’s why it may come as a surprise to many that, in a survey conducted by Helsingin Sanomat’s Kantar Public, the rise of basic Finns, which had been continuing since June, was reduced to 0.7 percentage points.

HS’s survey is the most recent survey of support for the entire country.

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Side by side with the basic Finns is the current prime minister’s party Sdp with 19.3 percent support.

The coalition therefore has a lead of 1.5 percentage points over its two closest competitors. It is not very much ahead of the parliamentary elections.

Over here there are many reasons.

Big news can happen before the election that affects people’s voting decisions.

Even if this doesn’t happen, the decision-makers may be those who did not express their opinion now. The research material for HS measurement was collected from February 12th to March 17th.

The collection time was a week longer than usual. The margin of error is 2.1 percentage points for the largest parties in their direction.

However, the most important thing is that the television exams and the most active campaigning have only started in the latter part of the material collection period or after that.

Election debate has revolved a lot in the adjustment of public finances, i.e. in who cuts benefits and from where.

Read more: The parties don’t tell voters enough about their economic policies, says the professor who prepares the programs

Elections are always about how well the party gets its potential supporters to go and cast their votes in the final stretch.

The beneficiaries of the economic debate are the coalition and Sdp, of which the coalition is briskly offering cuts, and the Sdp scares the coalition with the consequences of the cuts.

Basic Finns promises to put Finns first, as usual, and to cut immigration and development cooperation.

It is not at all certain whether this debate will revolutionize the order of the top three.

The economic debate is not really progressing, and at least for those who actively follow the election debate, the speech is very familiar and quite boring. However, many do not follow the debates all the time, so repeating the party’s line is necessary.

Social- and health services have been the second largest topic of discussion, but it also bounces around.

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The parties mainly blame each other, who has destroyed the services the most. The focus has been too much on the past when the future would also be available.

The combination of economic and social security discussions has, on the other hand, condensed into the fact that the left-wing parties have attacked the coalition hard.

The coalition has said it intends to curb the growth of health and social care spending by one billion euros, and the left-wing parties have done their best to paint scary pictures of the coalition’s intentions.

In these elections, the parties have barked at each other perhaps a little more than before. The barking of others can bring votes, but it doesn’t sound good, because all parties are at least partly to blame, especially for Finland’s health and safety problems.

On the final straight In recent elections, the SDP has tended to be less successful in the final election than, for example, the basic Finns. The coalition, on the other hand, benefits from low turnout, as many of its voters consider voting a civic duty.

The prime minister’s party usually has a very poor chance of continuing, because the support of the prime minister’s party drops into the calculation after a heavy government term.

The prime minister’s opportunities to lead the party’s program work and prepare for election strategies are limited. The prime minister’s parties are generally a little less well prepared for the elections than the opposition parties, who have had four years to hone the means to become the prime minister’s party.

Is fine it is rare that the support of the prime minister’s party before the election is higher than the result of the party’s previous parliamentary election.

Thanks to the extraordinary popularity of Prime Minister Sanna Marini, Sdp is now in this rare position. Sdp received 17.7 percent of the votes in the elections in 2019. Now its support is 19.3 percent.

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Sdp support has never been this high in the parliamentary elections of the 2010s.

Basic Finns are quite their own chapter, because its support rises and falls very sharply.

Its success depends on how much it gets those dissatisfied with the current situation to leave their sofas and vote.

It has done better in the 2010s than could have been predicted from pre-election support polls, but the vote share of even basic Finns has remained at its highest in the parliamentary elections at 19.1 percent.

However, the party has renewed itself, and has a better machinery than before. No one knows yet whether the party’s support has started to rise too early, and there won’t be a final rise this time.

Or will the party’s wild rise come true again? Now the starting level is higher than ever before.

Here the central role in the game is the centre, which has lost its supporters to basic Finns during the government period.

Now the center acts as if government responsibility is a life left behind, and the voters have already returned. The same applies to the coalition. Will it be able to keep its supporters who are critical of immigration on its side?

Sdp, on the other hand, draws votes from the greens.

Sdp’s fate can be decided by tactical voting. Some of the voters may vote for the Sdp, so that the basic Finns or the coalition do not become the prime minister’s party.

Which in this case, the election will be decided in the polling stations, on social media, in election exams and in the talking points brought by the traditional media.

It has often been speculated that the 150,000 voters will only decide who they will vote for on the last day of voting.

This time, it may depend on them which parties will lead Finland for the next four years.

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