HS analysis SDP’s municipal election result becomes the weakest ever – nomination did not go as expected

Prime Minister’s Party The SDP will have the weakest municipal election result ever, with about 95 percent of the vote counted. The SDP’s share of the vote at this stage is 17.8%, at which point it has so far maintained its position as the second largest party. Above is the Coalition.

In the last municipal elections, the SDP’s support was 19.4 per cent.

Chairman of the SDP Sanna Marin admitted he had expected better from his first election as chairman.

“Yes it [tulos] was a little lower than I expected. “

According to a forecast from Yle at 10:10 p.m., the final share of the SDP would be 17.6 percent. According to Marin, the result will be disappointing if it materializes as such.

“We will certainly be analyzing the election result very carefully,” Marin said in Yle.

Sdp: n the nomination process went confusingly bad compared to the fact that the party is the number one party in the government to run the country and its leader is still the rather popular Prime Minister Sanna Marin.

The SDP nominated 5,620 candidates, which is more than 500 less than in the previous municipal elections.

Party Secretary Antton Rönnholm has explained this by generational change. Some of those who had been working in municipal politics for a long time felt that they could stay out now when the party is doing well, but not as many new guards were replaced.

The SDP has young prominent politicians like Marin, but based on studies it has long been known that the party is exceptionally old in terms of both membership and supporters. This was now materialized in the nomination.

There were sharp drops in the party’s number of candidates in, for example, south-eastern Finland and central Finland. In Kouvola, Lappeenranta, Savonlinna and Pieksämäki, among others, the number of candidates decreased.

Elections previous support measures were not encouraging for the SDP. In both Helsingin Sanomat’s and Yle’s municipal election measurements, the Coalition Party was number one with 19.6 per cent support, and the SDP and Perussuomalainen competed equally for the second place with about 18 per cent support.

The SDP has had problems with timing its peak in the past.

During the Marin, the party has attended the HS poll measuring parliamentary election support at a high of 22.1 per cent last May. A year after that, support had melted to 19 per cent, leaving the SDP clearly behind the basic Finns.

With Sdp has a long history as a strong municipal party especially in cities. Its best places to support have been the Danube-winning localities, such as Varkaus, Imatra and Harjavalta, where it received more than 40 percent support in the last municipal elections.

The SDP has been the council’s largest party in a total of 14 cities since the last municipal elections.

In the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, the SDP seems to be losing the largest party seat to the Coalition Party in these municipal elections. In Lahti and Pori, the party seems to remain the largest. In Kemi, the SDP took the place of the largest party from the Left Alliance and in Jyväskylä from the Greens.

Helsinki and Espoo are already more difficult places for the SDP. In them, it underperforms: last time support was 13.8 per cent in Helsinki and 12.5 per cent in Espoo.

In Helsinki, the SDP seems to be the third largest. The Left Alliance was long ahead of it, but remained fourth as the count progressed.

In Marin’s hometown of Tampere, the party was last number one with more than 20 percent support and won the position of mayor, where the retired from the SAK chairmanship rose. Lauri Lyly. The place of labor in Tampere will not be given a place, but even in this election the struggle with the Coalition Party is extremely fierce.

Marin from Peritampere served as Chairman of the City Council in the period 2012–2016 and riveted a reputation as an effective discipliner. In the last municipal elections, Marin received 5,783 votes from Tampere, which was 23 per cent of the votes on the entire SDP list.

Marin now received more than 10,000 votes from Tampere. It is the fourth largest number of votes nationwide.

In the parliamentary elections, Marin was the SDP’s overwhelming rake in the whole country with more than 19,000 votes from Pirkanmaa.

In large in cities, the sdp’s grip slipped in the last municipal elections, but instead in so-called regional cities, the party still maintained its position. Regional cities are the centers of their own economic area but a notch smaller than the provincial cities.

In this election, the SDP, like the center, has feared in advance that the Basic Finns will seize municipal power in the suburban cities.

The growing weight of large cities is one of the reasons why the SDP has lost the seat of the largest municipal party to the Coalition Party in the 21st century. As late as the early 1990s, the SDP was the sovereign number one in municipal elections, gaining more than 27 percent nationwide support.

The previous ones at the time of the 2017 municipal elections, the sdp was in opposition, but the opposition position did not help at the time. The party sought first place, but eventually received 19.4 per cent of the vote and ended up second after the Coalition Party.

At the time, the party was led Antti Rinne, who had just been elected for a second term as chairman. He, like the Greens, failed to translate Juha Sipilän the unpopularity of the (central) government as an electoral power.

For the Greens, the last municipal elections were a breakthrough in Jyväskylä, for example, where the party rose to number one past the SDP.

In this election, the SDP seems to have relied on Sanna Marin’s luminous power to handle part of the election work, right down to the candidate. Marin’s popularity peaked in the early days of the corona pandemic, when the people sought refuge from an outspoken prime minister.

Since then, the coronation has begun to crack as the pandemic has begun to sink into the background and traditional government policies have come to the fore again.

This was reflected in the budget debate and also in the municipal election exams. Marin challenged the basic Finns Jussi Halla-ahoa labor market speeches and the Coalition Party Petteri Orpoa but also with his own government partners.

About statistics it is known that usually the prime minister’s party wears its coat in municipal elections.

It may not have been in everyone’s minds for the government to slow down in lifting the corona restrictions. The uproar over breakfast consumed by the state may also have annoyed voters, although Marin said he would repay the benefit of more than € 14,000 he received from the meals and correct his tax return for the meal benefit.

The importance of these factors should not be exaggerated. Municipal elections are local elections, so the SDP’s nomination and result tell more about the party’s age structure and the lack of field organization. The party has something to consider in preparing for the forthcoming parliamentary elections.

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