In January Israel announced that it had successfully destroyed the organized fighting force of the extremist group Hamas in northern Gaza. Next, the armed forces wanted to shift their attention to the southern and central parts of Gaza.
It didn't take long before news broke that Hamas was getting stronger in northern Gaza.
The fighting intensified again. What remained was the smell of rotting corpses, World Health Organization (WHO) workers who visited the site said when Israel withdrew from the vicinity of al-Shifa hospital in northern Gaza in early April.
Israel praised the hospital operation as accurate. Two hundred “terrorists” were said to have been killed and 900 captured. About five hundred of them were said to be members of extremist organizations. The numbers could not be confirmed from independent sources, as well as how many civilians were among the dead. According to the Palestinians, there were many of them.
Northern Gaza the situation may be an example of what will be the fate of all of Gaza.
Experts have estimated that Israel will withdraw and return to Gaza possibly for years to come.
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu according to which the reconstruction of the area cannot begin until the extremists have been destroyed. It is unlikely that the region will have a functioning administration before then.
“The real danger now is that Gaza will turn into Somalia,” a researcher at the influential US Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank Aaron David Miller evaluate in a telephone interview for HS.
of Israel The stated goals of the offensive it launched in October have been the complete destruction of the extremist organization Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza.
After more than six months of war, Gaza is in ruins and the human suffering is enormous. The International Court of Justice is considering whether Israel has committed genocide in the region.
Almost half of the hostages have been released. There are currently around 130 hostages in Gaza, and around thirty of them are believed to have died.
At the end of March, Israel claimed to have disbanded 20 of Hamas' 24 battalions. However, this does not mean that the battalions have been completely destroyed, but that their members may still be able to fight.
US intelligence officials estimated in a report published in February in the report, that Israel will face armed resistance from Hamas for years to come. Israel will have difficulties in destroying the Hamas tunnel network, which is why members of the organization will continue to have the opportunity to hide, regroup and surprise Israeli forces, the report states.
Israel's operatio al Shifa hospital in the area in northern Gaza ended in massive destruction.
Several experts have assessed that it is impossible to destroy Hamas because it is an ideology.
Miller also believes that Hamas will survive, at least as an insurgent movement.
“It is another question whether Hamas will rule Gaza again. In any case, Hamas will have an influence on those who rule.”
Miller previously worked for more than 20 years at the US State Department, where he was involved in planning US Middle East policy. He was an advisor to several foreign ministers when efforts were made to promote peace between Israel and the Arab countries.
Prime minister In February, Netanyahu published his own plan for the future of Gaza under the title “The Day After Hamas”.
The plan does not in any way take into account the numerous estimates that Hamas probably cannot be completely eradicated.
The plan, which is less than two sheets of paper, states, among other things, that Israel will have security control in both the West Bank and Gaza during the “interim phase”.
According to the plan, Israel will not allow reconstruction to begin until the area has been disarmed and a “de-radicalization” process has begun.
Civil affairs in Gaza will be handled by “local authorities” who have “administrative experience” and who are not affiliated with “countries or entities that support terrorism,” the plan says.
In more detail, the plan does not say who these “local authorities” would be in practice.
A child was selling frozen vegetables in southern Gaza in early April.
International Program Director of the Crisis Group (ICG). by Robert Blecher according to in Northern Gaza, the representatives of some local big families have already been asked about their interest in taking care of public order and some activities belonging to the administration in their own neighborhoods. Except for one family, no one even wanted to meet the Israelis, Blecher says in the Hold Your Fire podcast published by ICG.
According to him, Israel tried to promote a similar plan in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the West Bank to marginalize the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), but the plan did not take off.
According to Blecher, Netanyahu's plan is a fantasy.
It is not realistic to expect that these families could replace the ruling authorities, he states.
Miller also says that Netanyahu's plan cannot be taken seriously, and is not even meant to be taken. According to him, the plan was mainly written for internal political reasons.
According to Miller, the real concern at the moment is that what happens to Gaza is what happened to Somalia in the 1990s, when with the war the structures of society collapsed and several armed organizations began to struggle for power.
He says that this will not necessarily happen, but due to the lack of structures in society, the situation can turn “really bad”.
This is especially the case in Northern Gaza, where no body currently centrally coordinates services, takes care of order or secures aid transports.
According to news reports, criminal gangs have gained a foothold. The local police do not dare to work because they are considered part of the Hamas regime, and because of that they are also targeted by the Israeli armed forces.
In northern Gaza, the danger is already the spread of anarchy.
Most of the population of Gaza currently lives in the southern part of the territory, where Israel urged them to flee at the beginning of the war. A few hundred thousand people remained in northern Gaza. It is not yet allowed to return to the north from the south.
According to the Israeli Armed Forces, it is not allowed to return to northern Gaza yet. The picture was taken in February.
International the surface of the community in relation to Israel has tightened, although at the same time no real political measures have been used to put pressure on Israel.
There has been frustration with Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions both within the country in Israel and in the United States.
President Joe Biden made an extraordinary threat in early April, telling Netanyahu that US support would decrease if Israel did not better protect civilians. Considering the human suffering in Gaza, even Biden's speeches have still been very moderate.
Miller says the international community doesn't have much recourse in the war between Hamas and Israel, because both sides “see the war as existential.”
The historical review also does not give a very flattering picture of the international community's capabilities.
“The international community has a poor reputation in terms of its ability to prevent mass murders or genocides. Whether it's the Holocaust, Cambodia, Rwanda, Darfur, Syria or Ukraine,” says Miller.
The family was brought to the hospital after Israel struck the Bureij refugee camp in Keksi-Gaza.
Gaza has been rendered almost uninhabitable, but Israel still has no credible plan for the fate of the area.
Gazans themselves have been denied the opportunity to decide their own future. According to international law, Israel has an obligation to protect the rights of the civilian population of Gaza as long as the country occupies the territory.
A political process on the fate of all Palestinian territories is ultimately the only way to lasting peace. At the moment it seems very far away.
There are already so many traumatized people on both sides, so the only thing that would bring hope would be strong leaders, says Miller.
“I mean exceptional leaders. But I can't see them.”
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