HS Analysis | NATO is celebrating, but you can look for a festive spirit – These questions are on the table at the Washington meeting

When The summit of the NATO countries starts on Tuesday in Washington, you can expect two key messages from the leaders’ speeches.

We want to tell Russia that the ranks of the alliance are not cracking and Ukraine’s support is still guaranteed.

On the other hand, an attempt is being made to convey to the home audience in the United States that Europe bears a strong responsibility for its own defense as well as for Ukraine.

The main focus of the meeting days will still be largely elsewhere: How the president of the United States Joe Biden copes with his role as host and what is the state of the day in the US presidential race.

Already last year at the Vilnius meeting, Biden’s absence from the meeting dinner attracted attention. Now – after the election debate that went badly – ​​every little misstep is front page stuff.

Already the press conference on Friday, anticipating the summit, was noteworthy. General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg dodged questions about the health of the nuclear-armed US president, citing that he cannot comment on domestic politics.

THE SUMMIT is to celebrate NATO’s 75th anniversary. You can still apply from Juhlamie.

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine continues for the third year already, and the NATO countries have not succeeded in supporting Ukraine until victory. Support has always come a step late.

In addition, the political atmosphere around support for Ukraine and also the future of NATO is foggy despite the festive speeches.

The ex-president of both Donald Trump’s it is feared that the role of the United States may be reduced. Trump’s new term now seems quite possible, and Europe also has its uncertainties.

The actual agenda of the meeting is long and heavy. HS collected the most important questions.

What is promised to Ukraine?

Summit coincides with a time when Ukraine’s frontline situation has not been quite as weak as feared. Earlier this year, the widespread delay in US support brought worrying news from, for example, Kharkiv.

At the same time, the war continues brutally. Just below the meeting, Russia forcibly destroyed, among other things, the capital city of Kiev. One of the missiles reportedly hit a children’s hospital.

At the height of the President of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky anti-aircraft systems, such as the Patriots, have been on the wish list. Heard about them from member countries news.

Having also heard news about the new long-term security commitments that Finland and many other countries have already signed with Ukraine.

NATO has tailored a three-part package for Ukraine, about which much is already known.

First of all, the alliance is about to take on a bigger role in coordinating the support of Ukraine and, for example, the training of Ukrainian soldiers. For this purpose, a new NATO headquarters will be established in Wiesbaden, Germany.

The purpose would be to get NATO’s support on a more solid footing – not least considering the potentially windy political conditions of the next few years.

In NATO’s best fashion, discussions have taken place even on small details, such as whether the new activity could be referred to by the term mission, which in Finnish translates to e.g. Some have feared that this would paint a picture of NATO’s activities beyond its borders.

In addition Ukraine is going to be offered a promise of 40 billion euros in financial support for the next year, Secretary General Stoltenberg confirmed on Friday.

The amount roughly corresponds to the annual pot that the allies have given Ukraine in recent years. It is to be seeded based on gross domestic product.

Stoltenberg drove based on his previous statements a model where the financial commitment would have been long-term. Now it seems that there is no surprise.

The amount of 40 billion is still to be described as some kind of starting point in the future as well.

The question is, of course, to what extent the current level of support is enough for Ukraine, if the war has not been won with the current level of support.

The question is also what all the countries can count on their share.

Third another part of the Ukraine whole is the terms in which Ukraine’s NATO membership is referred to in the meeting’s statement.

Ukraine has long hoped to be invited to the union. It still doesn’t get that as the war continues.

Last year, at the Vilnius summit, the NATO countries’ disagreements on the issue burst into the open. In the end, the countries said that it is possible to invite Ukraine to NATO when “the allies are unanimous and the conditions are met.”

Now a similar public battle has been avoided. The public has already communicated well in advance that the invitation is not coming.

The meeting’s conclusions on the matter now have mostly symbolic meaning. A more concrete meaning is the support that could help end the war and allow Ukraine to move forward on the NATO path.

Does NATO have the capabilities to implement its plans?

The Washington summit can be described as the third summit in a kind of new era for NATO.

In Madrid in 2022, NATO declared Russia as its most important threat, along with terrorism, and began to turn its defense towards the settings of the Cold War.

New regional defense plans were approved in Vilnius last year, which prepare to defend themselves even in the conditions of a large-scale war.

In Washington, the focus is now on the extent to which these plans are feasible.

It is about, for example, how well the countries have assigned their troops and equipment to the needs of new defense plans and how the command structures serve the whole.

Much of this is secret. Some sort of assessment of the situation might have been made public.

News about key goals for Finland was already received earlier in June.

Finland and the other Nordic countries are moving under the command of the Norfolk Joint Operations Command, a sub-staff of the ground forces is coming to Finland, and the presence of NATO forces is being tailored to Finland.

How much should be invested in defense?

The summit in Washington takes place just before the Republican National Convention, where Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy is to be blessed.

It is known that it is important to Trump that European countries spend enough money on their defense. That’s why European NATO leaders want to underline that they now bear the responsibility.

A good summit bingo can be achieved by counting how many times central politicians repeat recent statistics: 23 member countries out of 32 now meet NATO’s defense allocation target, i.e. two percent in relation to gross national product.

Many countries still fall short of the target. By NATO standards, the figure is still a source of pride, as there are now about twice as many countries reaching the goal compared to four years ago.

In Washington, the goal is not to be changed. An increasingly broad view is still that two percent will not be enough in the future.

Some countries, at least Estonia, hope that the discussion would be started now, thinking about next year’s summit, about raising the goal.

Is NATO tightening its tone on China?

China and the great power competition are also expected to be a central part of the meeting. The theme is quite important for the host country, the United States, whose attention is increasingly in Asia.

NATO’s partner Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are participating in the discussions at the head level, as already in the meetings of the past years. The background is precisely the intensified strategic competition between China and the United States.

There has been a difference in the pressures of Europe and the United States on China, which burst into the public domain last year when there was no agreement on the opening of a NATO liaison office in Japan at least France’s resisting.

At least how China enables Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is getting attention now.

How is Stubb’s NATO debut going?

The Finnish delegation in Washington is headed by the President of the Republic Alexander Stubbfor which it is a debut at the NATO summit.

The foreign minister is also going to Washington Elina Valtonen (kok) and the Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen (cook). The trio is now gradually shaping Finland’s role in the union.

Stubb will attend the NATO leaders’ dinner organized at the White House on Wednesday. Spouse too Suzanne Innes-Stubb is involved in Washington.