HS Analysis | Marin has backed himself into the Hornet’s corner, and it may even affect the election result

Any more one cannot complain about the ongoing parliamentary elections as boring, as was the custom in observer circles until a few weeks ago.

If the party that defined the agenda of the previous week was the coalition and before that the center, now the focus was on the Sdp, or rather the chairman of the party To Sanna Marin.

The week started quite calmly, when the parliamentary parties explained their views on social and health services and the climate for two hours in the Yle exam on Monday.

The conversation was calm, even civilized.

Read more: The government of the coalition and basic Finns is starting to look more likely than before

Tuesday HS published its opinion survey. According to it, the coalition is still in the lead, and Perussuomalaiset and Sdp are second, both with 19.3 percent support.

The coalition’s lead is only 1.5 percentage points.

Read more: Is the order of the top of the poll yet to change?

For many, the most surprising thing about the poll was that the support of basic Finns has not increased, but decreased.

In regional opinion polls, the Basic Finns have done well. It is still entirely possible that Perussuomalaiset will rise to the position of the prime minister’s party.

On Tuesday, two exams were organized, first for Ilta-Sanom and later for Yle. In both, Marin attacked the chairman of Basic Finns Riikka Purran attacked and the citizens could watch the war of words that even escalated into shouting.

Orpo continued with his Buddha-like calm smile and watched his fellow competitors peck at each other.

Read more: “False claims!” Marin and Purra have a tough confrontation about nurses with no language skills in the IS exam

Finished in this week’s exams, we have seen more of the left-wing fighter Sanna Marin than the plain-spoken debater who throws punches with the prestige of the prime minister. Of course, the elections must feature a party leader who defends his own values ​​and not a prime minister who makes compromises.

However, Marin has raised his voice a few times so that he is not at all sure if, for example, Sdp’s elderly supporters like such a fierce fighter style.

Marinin has twisted the elections into value elections, while the coalition pushes them in the other direction into economic elections. Faces are red, but it seems that neither of them is getting off their hands.

By arguing with Purra, Marin has gained more impetus for her value campaign.

Marin has effectively communicated that only by voting for Sdp can you avoid the “blue-black future” built together by basic Finns and the coalition.

What is special is that in economic themes, Marin has deliberately stayed well to the left to emphasize her value theme and has not fished for the voices in the middle of the value map, even between the lines. However, there must be quite a lot of mobile voters there.

Ilta-Sanom in the exam the Hornet was also disputed-fighters. In the exam, Marin received from other participants, namely Orpo, Purra and the chairman of the center From Annika Saariko harsh criticism for his position, according to which there should be a discussion in Finland about handing them over to Ukraine.

On Thursday, HS reported that Ukraine has sent a request to officials of the Ministry of Defense to discuss handing over Hornet fighters to Ukraine together with the United States.

Read more: Information from HS: Ukraine has submitted a request to Finland to discuss the handover of the Hornets

Marin repeated after the news that the handover of the fighter jets must be discussed just like it is discussed elsewhere in Europe. However, he has not agreed to say when he thinks the machines should be handed over.

Many others at the core of foreign policy have instead quite clearly said that the current Hornets are needed in Finland.

Marin’s answers and contradictions to others’ speeches have left room for the question of whether Marin is undermining Finland’s defense by wanting to send planes already, even though Marin has emphasized that Finland’s position must be taken into account in the discussion.

Marinia has also been criticized for proposing the Hornet discussion during her recent visit to Kiev without first talking about it with the president or even the rest of the government.

Read more: About Sanna Mar’s fighter jets: I’m not going to knock you out and I’m not going to promise anything

Some people think that you can propose a discussion without asking permission from others. Others think it’s a majesty crime. The end result has been that the other parties can beat Marini to their heart’s content with the Hornets.

One The SDP influencer said that Marin is like the comic book hero Tex Willer, who has the ability to shoot himself out of a corner even if half the world is in front of him.

There has been a lot of over-interpretation of Mari’s speech, and the president has also saidthat of course you can talk. Still, Marin has specifically driven himself into the Hornet’s corner, and only he has the means to get out of there.

Is hard to say how the Hornet debate will affect the election result.

The “Hornets must be discussed” perpetuator may at best turn out to be the same kind of nuclear blunder as Orpo’s “human is a decimal” statement regarding nurse assessment in the previous elections in 2019.

However, foreign and security policy is further away from people’s everyday life than the nursing shortage. The impact of the fighter talk is hardly as great as the decimal talk.

In the parliamentary elections the appearances and popularity of the chairpersons have a really big impact on the final result. It is especially big for the Sdp, whose support is likely to have a Marin supplement of several percent.

The support of chairmen can be compared to stock market prices, which are always baked into already known concepts and their expected impact on the future.

There is, for example, so much criticism of immigration in Purra’s “stock market price” that it is hard to imagine that highlighting it alone will increase Purra’s value any more.

Something new is needed: a better-than-expected performance, convincingness and new exits for the rate to rise. Events in the outside world can also change “pricing”.

Mistakes in matters related to immigration, on the other hand, can quickly lower Purra’s course.

Marin’s the course has his reputation as a passionate defender of Ukraine and NATO-Marin up to the pin, so it’s hard to see Marin’s popularity rising in this field. Making a mistake in these, on the other hand, can lower the course.

As a performer, Mari’s rate can easily fall already because the expected value for her is much higher than for Purra and Orpo. Their performance, on the other hand, has the potential to increase support.

Marin, the shouter seen this week, may create a distortion in the image of this sharply and quickly commenting performer.

The elections will therefore move to next week in an exciting phase, when the chairpersons will take part in HS and Yle exams, among other things.

Yet no one can say which of the three most popular parties will ultimately emerge as the largest.

Values ​​and the economy with their cut lists will remain at the heart of the discussion next week as well. Purra and Marin pull the game more on the side of values, Orpo always slips on the side of euros, even if he sometimes tries otherwise.

However, in the parliamentary elections on April 2, the chairpersons alone will not decide.

HS reminded on Wednesdaythat according to the previous parliamentary election survey, there were about 45 percent of so-called party-loyal voters in the 2015 and 2019 parliamentary elections.

Sleepers, i.e. those who did not vote, were just under 30 percent. The race is fought for this share of about 25 percent, or the so-called mobile voters.

Fishing for these votes requires good candidate placement and diligent campaigning. Each chairman can be a candidate in only one constituency.

Next week, the election battle will take place in every arena. Every vote always counts in elections, but especially this time.