HS analysis Hundreds of thousands of young soldiers are waiting on both sides of the Ukrainian border – Do they have to die because 69-year-old Putin would like to expand his sphere of power?

Microsoft said new information about a cyber attack on Ukraine, and the Ukrainians vowed to defend their country if a full-scale attack begins, writes HS foreign reporter Vesa Sirén.

Through centuries of youth have been sent to battlefields to glorify the glory of old leaders. More than a hundred thousand Russian soldiers are now wondering whether it is their turn this time around the Ukrainian border.

Russia is originally a presidential country, so the decision is practically only 69 years old Vladimir Putin.

So far, Putin’s long-term military maneuvers have been handled largely with small losses.

During the Syrian civil war, Russia supported the regime by air strikes and refrained from sending large-scale ground troops.

In the war in Georgia, Russia mobilized about 70,000 troops but said it had survived less than a hundred fallen and a few hundred wounded.

The conquest of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine was treated with particularly little bloodshed for Russia.

There, as in many other cases, there have been unofficial forces at work that have increased the moment of surprise, such as employees of the Wagner mercenary company. The company is considered to have close contacts with the Russian leadership

Big profits for big risks have not always been hunted. The frozen conflicts have been enough, as evidenced by the situation in eastern Ukraine.

The conflict has claimed some 14,000 lives, including civilians, separatists and Ukrainian soldiers. Russia itself has made little progress.

The malware was able to install its own text on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for some time. For example, the text called for “fear and expect the worst”.

Kybersota Against Ukraine is now in full swing.

Microsoft said on Saturday on his blogthat it has detected more widespread malware in the computer systems of the Ukrainian government and related organizations and companies.

Read more: Microsoft: The cyber attack on Ukraine may be broader than initially estimated

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On Sunday, Microsoft said it would continue to analyze the malware and warned it could completely paralyze the Ukrainian administration’s digital infrastructure.

According to Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russia has nothing to do with the cyber attack on Ukraine. “If the weather is bad in Ukraine, Russia will be blamed,” he told CNN.

Reuters said on Saturday that a hacking group operating in Belarus with links to the country’s intelligence is suspected of installing malware. The malware resembles those used by Russia, the Ukrainian security authority said.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov rushed to reassure CNN that Russia had “nothing to do” with the cyber attack. The matter was also reported by a Russian news agency Tass.

This will not stay here, estimates the former head of Ukraine’s cyber police Serhiy Demedyuk, who currently serves on the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

“The corruption of the sites was only meant to cover up the more destructive attacks that were going on behind the scenes and the effects of which we will see in the near future,” he told Reuters.

But will the attack remain at the level of cyber attack?

Russian snipers in military exercises on 14 December.

The likelihood of a major attack is likely to be reduced by the fact that Putin will not be able to surprise Ukraine and the international community, at least in the near future, as was partly the case with the conquest of Crimea.

According to the US authorities, Russia would have already placed “saboteurs” in Ukraine ready for a provocation that Russia would interpret as an attack by Ukraine against Russia.

For Finns, this may be reminiscent of Mainila’s shots, but if the plan is true, the surprise advantage is lost.

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Mainila’s shots are now also remembered internationally. They were the Soviet excuse to start the Winter War in 1939. Foreign Police The December article considers what the Finnish experience could teach Ukraine.

And what Russia may remember about that.

Ukrainian soldiers in military exercises in the eastern part of the country on 14 December.

Ukraine has received € 2.2 billion in support from the United States alone to strengthen its defense. For example, in November, the country delivered to Ukraine 88 tons of ammunition, says The New York Times.

Russia could still take over Ukraine or parts of it, but controlling large areas after the takeover could be difficult.

According to polls, a third of Ukraine, with more than 44 million inhabitants, is ready for armed resistance. The Guardian Ukrainians interviewed reassured their will to defend the country over the weekend from IT workers and said Ukraine would also be able to mobilize an army of about half a million soldiers when reservists are included. In total, there are about 900,000 reservists in the country.

Some of those interviewed threatened to form spontaneous guerrilla forces if Russia were able to destroy Ukraine’s armed forces and take over the country.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Secretary of State Sergei Ryabkov at talks in Geneva on January 10th.

On top of all that, the West feels vigilant right now and is doing diplomatic work on many fronts. There are promises of embargo-like sanctions on Russia and help for Ukraine if Russia really attacks.

Russia, for its part, wants security guarantees, including a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine and stop expanding to the east.

It would also apply to the Finnish and Swedish NATO options, albeit the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia respects the sovereignty of the countries and that Finland and Sweden will, of course, decide for themselves.

Negotiations will continue next week. So far, Russia has been able to talk about Ukraine at most of the negotiating tables without the presence of representatives of Ukraine.

This was the case, for example, in the NATO-Russia Council and in bilateral negotiations with the United States. The EU has also been largely on the sidelines in the negotiations, which is to Russia’s liking.

Russia’s next move could be to send official troops to aid the separatist “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. The maneuver would include a promise to withdraw troops if negotiations succeed, says the deputy director of the American CSIS Research Institute. Seth Jones and CIA-backed Philip G. Wasielewski Published on January 13th in the analysis.

It would not necessarily trigger harsh sanctions like a trade embargo, but the negotiating path could end and some backlash would certainly come.

Therefore, Putin may well keep the frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine as it is for the time being, if he thinks he finds a way out in the negotiations.

It would also leave the opportunity to wait for a better and more surprising time if Putin wants to maintain the attack as one possibility.

Ukrainian soldier on the front line in the Donetsk region near the village of Tarvneven on December 15.

At the same time, the wait of hundreds of thousands of young soldiers continues on both sides of the border.

Is it their turn to die in battle because 69-year-old Putin would like to expand his sphere of power?

Or will a more peaceful solution be found this time?

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