Covid, how the virus can change and what could happen in the coming months
While in Italy increases gradually the number of people who have been vaccinated against Covid-19, one wonders, also in anticipation of the arrival of winter, how the virus could change in the future and what could happen in the coming months.
According to experts, the pandemic could soon turn into an endemic, or when a contagious disease is constantly present in the area with a number of cases that however remain almost stable over time. Predicting when this step could happen, however, is quite complicated, especially due to the numerous factors involved, one among all the possible mutations of the virus.
The unknown variants
As the Corriere della Sera, in fact, in most of the world the infections remain uncontrolled and this could favor the birth of new variants of Covid, which could prove to be more virulent and able to circumvent the immune defenses of the vaccine.
At the moment the prevailing variant in the world is the Delta, which has proved to be more infectious, but no longer lethal. This, according to some experts, could mean that the virus is endemic and that soon the spread of Covid will slow down.
The vaccines
Vaccines obviously play a fundamental role in the fight against Covid. In fact, to try to stop the pandemic, it is necessary to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid the uncontrolled spread of the virus. At the moment, however, the countries are proceeding in no particular order.
While in some countries the vaccination rate reaches 90%, in Africa, for example, vaccinated people do not even reach 10%. Without considering that, in the current state of things, there is still no vaccine on the market for children aged 5 to 12, who, therefore, remain totally uncovered.
Furthermore, the actual duration of immunity caused by vaccination still remains unknown, which is why, already for some categories, it was decided to proceed with the administration of a third dose of vaccine.
The transition from pandemic and endemic
When could the pandemic turn into an endemic? According to many experts this could happen over the next few months with the evolution, however, which could happen at different times in the world precisely because of the discrepancies in vaccination rates.
But once it becomes endemic, what will the virus be like? Difficult to predict. Some experts predict that Covid will be like the flu and will therefore continue to cause deaths and serious illnesses, especially in the most fragile subjects, others speculate that the virus will eventually become like a common cold.
The opinions of the experts
According to Alberto Mantovani, director of the Humanitas Clinical Institute and president of the Humanitas Foundation for Research, coexistence with Covid will last a long time: “We clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel but it would be necessary to vaccinate the entire population aged 12 and over, including the healed, and do not abandon the tracking of positives and the rules of prevention in closed places “.
For Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the Emerging Diseases Unit of the World Health Organization, “The peaks may become lower, but more acute in specific populations, such as the unvaccinated and the frail.”
Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said instead: “I imagine a virus three times more contagious than the flu, but with a similar mortality rate.”
ALL THE LATEST NEWS ON COVID IN ITALY AND IN THE WORLD
Covid, how the virus can change and what could happen in the coming months
While in Italy increases gradually the number of people who have been vaccinated against Covid-19, one wonders, also in anticipation of the arrival of winter, how the virus could change in the future and what could happen in the coming months.
According to experts, the pandemic could soon turn into an endemic, or when a contagious disease is constantly present in the area with a number of cases that however remain almost stable over time. Predicting when this step could happen, however, is quite complicated, especially due to the numerous factors involved, one among all the possible mutations of the virus.
The unknown variants
As the Corriere della Sera, in fact, in most of the world the infections remain uncontrolled and this could favor the birth of new variants of Covid, which could prove to be more virulent and able to circumvent the immune defenses of the vaccine.
At the moment the prevailing variant in the world is the Delta, which has proved to be more infectious, but no longer lethal. This, according to some experts, could mean that the virus is endemic and that soon the spread of Covid will slow down.
The vaccines
Vaccines obviously play a fundamental role in the fight against Covid. In fact, to try to stop the pandemic, it is necessary to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid the uncontrolled spread of the virus. At the moment, however, the countries are proceeding in no particular order.
While in some countries the vaccination rate reaches 90%, in Africa, for example, vaccinated people do not even reach 10%. Without considering that, in the current state of things, there is still no vaccine on the market for children aged 5 to 12, who, therefore, remain totally uncovered.
Furthermore, the actual duration of immunity caused by vaccination still remains unknown, which is why, already for some categories, it was decided to proceed with the administration of a third dose of vaccine.
The transition from pandemic and endemic
When could the pandemic turn into an endemic? According to many experts this could happen over the next few months with the evolution, however, which could happen at different times in the world precisely because of the discrepancies in vaccination rates.
But once it becomes endemic, what will the virus be like? Difficult to predict. Some experts predict that Covid will be like the flu and will therefore continue to cause deaths and serious illnesses, especially in the most fragile subjects, others speculate that the virus will eventually become like a common cold.
The opinions of the experts
According to Alberto Mantovani, director of the Humanitas Clinical Institute and president of the Humanitas Foundation for Research, coexistence with Covid will last a long time: “We clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel but it would be necessary to vaccinate the entire population aged 12 and over, including the healed, and do not abandon the tracking of positives and the rules of prevention in closed places “.
For Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the Emerging Diseases Unit of the World Health Organization, “The peaks may become lower, but more acute in specific populations, such as the unvaccinated and the frail.”
Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said instead: “I imagine a virus three times more contagious than the flu, but with a similar mortality rate.”
ALL THE LATEST NEWS ON COVID IN ITALY AND IN THE WORLD
Covid, how the virus can change and what could happen in the coming months
While in Italy increases gradually the number of people who have been vaccinated against Covid-19, one wonders, also in anticipation of the arrival of winter, how the virus could change in the future and what could happen in the coming months.
According to experts, the pandemic could soon turn into an endemic, or when a contagious disease is constantly present in the area with a number of cases that however remain almost stable over time. Predicting when this step could happen, however, is quite complicated, especially due to the numerous factors involved, one among all the possible mutations of the virus.
The unknown variants
As the Corriere della Sera, in fact, in most of the world the infections remain uncontrolled and this could favor the birth of new variants of Covid, which could prove to be more virulent and able to circumvent the immune defenses of the vaccine.
At the moment the prevailing variant in the world is the Delta, which has proved to be more infectious, but no longer lethal. This, according to some experts, could mean that the virus is endemic and that soon the spread of Covid will slow down.
The vaccines
Vaccines obviously play a fundamental role in the fight against Covid. In fact, to try to stop the pandemic, it is necessary to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid the uncontrolled spread of the virus. At the moment, however, the countries are proceeding in no particular order.
While in some countries the vaccination rate reaches 90%, in Africa, for example, vaccinated people do not even reach 10%. Without considering that, in the current state of things, there is still no vaccine on the market for children aged 5 to 12, who, therefore, remain totally uncovered.
Furthermore, the actual duration of immunity caused by vaccination still remains unknown, which is why, already for some categories, it was decided to proceed with the administration of a third dose of vaccine.
The transition from pandemic and endemic
When could the pandemic turn into an endemic? According to many experts this could happen over the next few months with the evolution, however, which could happen at different times in the world precisely because of the discrepancies in vaccination rates.
But once it becomes endemic, what will the virus be like? Difficult to predict. Some experts predict that Covid will be like the flu and will therefore continue to cause deaths and serious illnesses, especially in the most fragile subjects, others speculate that the virus will eventually become like a common cold.
The opinions of the experts
According to Alberto Mantovani, director of the Humanitas Clinical Institute and president of the Humanitas Foundation for Research, coexistence with Covid will last a long time: “We clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel but it would be necessary to vaccinate the entire population aged 12 and over, including the healed, and do not abandon the tracking of positives and the rules of prevention in closed places “.
For Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the Emerging Diseases Unit of the World Health Organization, “The peaks may become lower, but more acute in specific populations, such as the unvaccinated and the frail.”
Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said instead: “I imagine a virus three times more contagious than the flu, but with a similar mortality rate.”
ALL THE LATEST NEWS ON COVID IN ITALY AND IN THE WORLD
Covid, how the virus can change and what could happen in the coming months
While in Italy increases gradually the number of people who have been vaccinated against Covid-19, one wonders, also in anticipation of the arrival of winter, how the virus could change in the future and what could happen in the coming months.
According to experts, the pandemic could soon turn into an endemic, or when a contagious disease is constantly present in the area with a number of cases that however remain almost stable over time. Predicting when this step could happen, however, is quite complicated, especially due to the numerous factors involved, one among all the possible mutations of the virus.
The unknown variants
As the Corriere della Sera, in fact, in most of the world the infections remain uncontrolled and this could favor the birth of new variants of Covid, which could prove to be more virulent and able to circumvent the immune defenses of the vaccine.
At the moment the prevailing variant in the world is the Delta, which has proved to be more infectious, but no longer lethal. This, according to some experts, could mean that the virus is endemic and that soon the spread of Covid will slow down.
The vaccines
Vaccines obviously play a fundamental role in the fight against Covid. In fact, to try to stop the pandemic, it is necessary to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid the uncontrolled spread of the virus. At the moment, however, the countries are proceeding in no particular order.
While in some countries the vaccination rate reaches 90%, in Africa, for example, vaccinated people do not even reach 10%. Without considering that, in the current state of things, there is still no vaccine on the market for children aged 5 to 12, who, therefore, remain totally uncovered.
Furthermore, the actual duration of immunity caused by vaccination still remains unknown, which is why, already for some categories, it was decided to proceed with the administration of a third dose of vaccine.
The transition from pandemic and endemic
When could the pandemic turn into an endemic? According to many experts this could happen over the next few months with the evolution, however, which could happen at different times in the world precisely because of the discrepancies in vaccination rates.
But once it becomes endemic, what will the virus be like? Difficult to predict. Some experts predict that Covid will be like the flu and will therefore continue to cause deaths and serious illnesses, especially in the most fragile subjects, others speculate that the virus will eventually become like a common cold.
The opinions of the experts
According to Alberto Mantovani, director of the Humanitas Clinical Institute and president of the Humanitas Foundation for Research, coexistence with Covid will last a long time: “We clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel but it would be necessary to vaccinate the entire population aged 12 and over, including the healed, and do not abandon the tracking of positives and the rules of prevention in closed places “.
For Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the Emerging Diseases Unit of the World Health Organization, “The peaks may become lower, but more acute in specific populations, such as the unvaccinated and the frail.”
Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said instead: “I imagine a virus three times more contagious than the flu, but with a similar mortality rate.”
ALL THE LATEST NEWS ON COVID IN ITALY AND IN THE WORLD