Despite the Russian president’s declaration of a nuclear alert, observers think it unlikely that Moscow will start a nuclear war. But given Putin’s volatility, the threats cannot be ignored either. Amid news of fighting in Ukraine, refugees on the country’s western borders and Moscow attacks on Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement on Sunday. (27/02) that stood out and caused chills around the world.
“I order the Defense Minister and the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to put the Russian Army’s deterrent forces into a special combat duty mode,” Putin said in a televised speech.
The “deterrence” Putin referred to includes nuclear forces, which immediately raised concerns about a possible further escalation of the war against Ukraine.
A senior US Defense Department official told a briefing on Sunday that Putin’s invoking Russia’s nuclear capability was “not only an unnecessary step for him, but an escalation.” And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the order “irresponsible”, telling US broadcaster CNN that “this is dangerous rhetoric”.
However, there is still no clear understanding of what exactly the declaration means in practical terms for Russia’s military strategy going forward.
“It is still unclear what the heightened alert involves,” wrote Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists’ nuclear information project, in an email to DW.
“There has been speculation that it could involve increasing the readiness of the nuclear command and control system to be more ready to transmit a launch order. There have also been some reports of increased submarine activity. [lançadores] missiles, but it’s not clear if this is beyond normal,” he explained.
Russia alleges ‘unacceptable statements’
The Kremlin said putting nuclear forces on high alert was a reaction to Western statements about possible clashes between Russian and NATO troops.
“Statements have been made by various representatives at various levels about possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between NATO and Russia,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a news conference on Monday. “We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable,” he added.
It is unclear which statements Peskov referred to. One Western politician he mentioned directly was British Foreign Minister Liz Truss. But neither Truss nor other Western or NATO representatives spoke about an Atlantic Alliance attack on Russian troops.
Experts assume Putin made his remarks as a reminder to the world that Russia is a nuclear power not to be trifled with, after the EU and US imposed the toughest economic sanctions the country has ever seen on Moscow.
“Putin is probably doing this to scare the West and make concessions to it,” Kristensen wrote. “This is his typical bizarre manner.”
The move could also be motivated by the lack of success in the war so far, says Marc Finaud, head of the arms proliferation division at the Geneva Security Policy Center, an international foundation based in Switzerland.
“The military situation in Ukraine is not as clear-cut as Putin thought it would be,” Finaud told DW. “That may be why Russia’s president felt the need to point out the strength of his country’s nuclear weapons.”
Whatever the reason behind Putin’s words, Ben Hodges, a retired US Army general who served as commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe, was not surprised by the rhetoric.
“Of course, it didn’t cost him anything to threaten the use of nuclear weapons,” Hodges told DW.
An actual nuclear strike, however, would be a different story, he said. “If they make the terrible calculation of employing a nuclear weapon, no matter how big or small, it will cost them everything. [a Putin] and Russia,” commented Hodges.
Cases in which Russia could use nuclear weapons
Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which Putin himself approved in 2020, states that the country would only resort to nuclear strikes in four cases: when ballistic missiles are fired at Russia or an ally’s territory, when an enemy uses nuclear weapons, in response to an attack on a Russian nuclear weapons facility, or in response to an attack that threatens the very existence of the Russian state. None of these are the case in the war against Ukraine.
“If [Putin] actually planned a nuclear attack, we would likely see the scattering of mobile missiles on land and he would order all submarines out to sea. We would also see the arming of bombers and the activation of non-strategic nuclear forces,” said Kristensen. “A launch is highly unlikely unless Russia and NATO are in a direct military confrontation where Russia is losing.”
And a nuclear attack on Ukraine, a country that is not part of the NATO alliance and does not have nuclear weapons, is seen by experts as unlikely.
“It wouldn’t make any sense,” Finaud observed. “If the objective is to take Ukraine, Russia does not want to occupy a pile of radioactive waste.”
Where does Putin want to go?
German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Monday that Putin’s threat was intended to attract attention.
“However, we have witnessed how unpredictable Putin is. So we have to be very vigilant now,” Lambrecht told German public radio Deutschlandfunk.
Finaud agrees. The expert said he was happy to see that the US did not respond “tit for an eye” by raising its alert level as well, but showed a “rather moderate” reaction. Behaviors like this show how to avoid further escalation, he said.
But at the same time, the use of nuclear weapons should not be ruled out, warns Finaud.
“We saw a series of red lines being crossed by Putin in a few days. And every time we thought he wouldn’t go any further,” Finaud said.
“We thought ‘this is just another blow, but it will be rational because it might go against Russia’s national interests,’” Finaud said. “But each time he went further. So right now, it’s really hard to imagine where he’s going to end up.”
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