The invasion of Ukraine has been underway since February 24, 2022, since then shots and bombs have been fired in Russia’s neighboring country. How long will the war last?
Ukraine – It is supposedly a peacekeeping mission – a “special operation”. At least according to the definition of the Russian government. The global majority speaks of a war of aggression by Vladimir Putin* when the Ukraine conflict* escalates. How long this will last depends on many factors. This is difficult to assess unequivocally.
The question of the probable duration of the war in Ukraine* depends heavily on how long it can defend itself against attacks by the Russian President’s army. For now, it looks like the Ukrainians might be able to withstand the Russian invasion, albeit not completely. Some areas are already under Russian control.
Ukraine war over ten years? Security expert thinks it’s “not impossible”
The deputy director of the US International Security Program, Emily Harding, fears in a post politicalthat the Ukraine war could last for ten years. “Imagine – if you like – a headline from January 2032. It reads: ‘Armistice signed between warring factions in Ukraine, end of 10-year struggle for control of Kyiv,'” writes Harding. This vision is “not impossible, but not pessimistic either,” she says.
It is the most likely way Ukraine can emerge victorious from a protracted conflict with Russia. However, continued support from the NATO countries would be essential for this, warns Harding. This is the only way Ukraine can avert an occupation by Russia.
Gruesome decision when Kyiv falls: death, flight or fight from underground
If Russia were to win over Kyiv, Harding predicts, the fighting soldiers on the Ukrainian side would be faced with a gruesome decision: “You can either surrender to the puppet government without knowing whether you are on an alleged list of Ukrainians who are to be killed or captured. You can try to escape with thousands of other refugees. Or they can hide in the shadows and continue the fight as insurgents.” The latter would be tantamount to guerrilla warfare*.
It is important to remember that most uprisings last around eight to ten years. Harding emphasizes that Ukraine faces a bleak future if the NATO countries do not develop a long-term or temporary support strategy. (mda) *Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
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