In a year in which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 4.5%, the positive balance of 2.731 million formal jobs in 2021 was quite expressive. It was surpassed until the historic mark of 2.630 million jobs created in 2010, when the Brazilian economy had taken off 7.6%. The data are from the General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged), of the Ministry of Labor and Employment (MTE).
Looking ahead, however, a more modest result in the labor market is expected this year due to the strong slowdown in the economy – instead of a growth of 4.5%, I predict a Pibinho (expansion) of 0.5%.
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In this context, I believe that job creation with a formal contract will continue with a positive balance, that is, admissions should exceed layoffs in most months, but at a slower pace.
In addition to Pibinho, another factor that will cool the job market is the end of the effects of the BEm program (Emergency Program for Employment and Income Maintenance), which allowed the temporary suspension of the employment contract or the proportional reduction of the working day. and salary in order to avoid dismissal in the pandemic. As the BEm ended in August last year, the agreements still in place can no longer be renewed, which could cause a wave of layoffs in companies that have not yet managed to recover from the pandemic.
It is difficult to predict an exact number for the balance of formal vacancies at Caged in 2022. If Brazil manages to register a positive net balance of one million jobs with a formal contract this year, it will be a satisfactory result, but insufficient to meet the 12, 4 million unemployed – many of whom will only find some work in the informal market.
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