At a time when Washington had hoped for a gradual recovery from the effects of the Corona pandemic, the war in Ukraine came to cause an unexpected setback, and the date of improvement is not yet known with the continued escalation between Russia and the United States and its allies in the West.
In the middle of last week, President Joe Biden announced a ban on oil imports from Russia, in the harshest measure his administration has taken so far to punish Moscow for its war against Ukraine.
This decision came under pressure from members of Congress who urged the president to move towards this decision, despite the apparent reluctance in the early days, fearing that this ban would exacerbate the inflation that has weighed on his term for months.
Observers believe that Biden decided to go, according to the opinion of Congress, with the desire to consolidate the slight improvement in his popularity that appeared in recent opinion polls, on the impact of his management of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent decisions towards the Russian president.
Economic obstacles
This coincides with what was reported by “Reuters”, that President Biden’s current strategy in the face of the domestic repercussions of fuel price increases is for the Americans to direct their anger at one man, who is Russian President Putin.
On the level of the average American, Washington’s recent economic decisions against Moscow have caused fuel prices in the United States to increase, which have already risen beyond $4 a gallon in many places, posing a major challenge to Biden.
This is in contrast to the living difficulties that occurred before the outbreak of the war, as the inflation level reached 7.5 percent last January, at an unprecedented rate of rise in 40 years.
The American newspaper “New York Times” stated in a report that the war will leave major repercussions on the world and the American economy, such as increasing uncertainty, and causing disruptions in commodity markets, especially oil and wheat.
These data quickly reflected on the lives of Americans, as inflation rose recently to 7.9 percent, driven by the rise in food, gasoline and housing prices.
All of this is pushing towards broad challenges for the Democratic president, at a time when Republicans are keen to seize them before the midterm elections next November, when control of Congress is at stake.
low popularity
In turn, the former director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies and a prominent political analyst on American affairs, Abdel Moneim Saeed, believes to “Sky News Arabia” that public opinion polls in America have fluctuated recently, and many elements are involved, the most important of which is the economic situation in the country.
Saeed explained that when Biden was elected, the polls gave him a positive margin against his competitors in the political arena, but it gradually declined with the continuation of the Corona pandemic, as well as in the scene of exit from Afghanistan when he did not show him an international role worthy of his country, so that popularity began to decline clearly at the beginning of this year.
According to a Gallup poll, Biden’s popularity has fallen to 41 percent, which affects the elections, as presidents whose approval rate is less than 50 percent, their parties lose an average of 37 seats in the House of Representatives during the midterm elections. .
A poll conducted by the American company, “Rasmusin”, also showed that “54 percent of Americans believe Biden’s response to the Russian operation was ineffective, including 30 percent who rated his response as ineffective at all.”
Saeed pointed out that the current inflation in the United States has begun to affect the position on President Biden, and that the repercussions on the economic situation may have a negative impact.
Opportunity to revitalize popularity
Saeed believes that with the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, and Biden’s tendency to impose more stringent sanctions on the Russian regime, the US president’s shares will rise a little, and with him, of course, the shares of the Democratic Party, but there are many indications that the time distance from this time until the midterm elections is still long.
The political analyst said that the conflict with Russia on the Ukrainian land and the extent of success and failure in it will determine the fate of these elections, but there is a positive development because Biden seemed firm towards Putin, as he succeeded in unifying the Western position against Moscow.
All in all, Biden and his party are being tested on the Ukraine crisis and the current economic situation.
Election Strategy
Abdel Moneim Saeed stated that the midterm elections take place at the state level, and therefore the American national dimension is one dimension, but there are other dimensions specific to the same state in which the elections are held, and the matter depends on the economic situation in relation to it, and the balance of presence for the Republicans and Democrats in this state.
He added: “When we talk about any American elections, we are talking about a limited number of states, because most states voted for a long time for Democrats or Republicans, and the success of the Republican or the Democrat becomes according to the traditions in force in the state, and what makes the difference is a group of states that are called.” swings”, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida.
#war #Ukraine #affect #Biden #party
