Germany passed the mark of 100,000 deaths by Covid-19 this Thursday (25), the day in which new records of cases were registered in the country. Amid the transition of government, the European country begins to debate the possibility of new lockdowns and mandatory vaccination against coronavirus.
The fourth wave of contagions in Germany is different from previous outbreaks in the country. The delta variant of the coronavirus, more contagious, is responsible for almost all cases. The current incidence of infections is much higher than in the winter of 2020, when the vaccination campaign had not yet started. However, pandemic figures in Germany demonstrate that the unvaccinated are being affected by the coronavirus in higher numbers than the vaccinated.
This Thursday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported that there were 351 deaths from Covid-19 and more than 75,900 cases of infection in the previous 24 hours in the country. The incidence of infections also reached an unprecedented level in Germany, with 419.7 positives for every 100,000 inhabitants in the last seven days. The state with the highest current incidence in Germany, Saxony, reached 1,074.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last seven days.
German Health Minister Jens Spahn said earlier this week that the country was facing a “national emergency” and returned to encouraging people to get vaccinated, using drastic words:
“Possibly, by the end of this winter, practically everyone in Germany – this is sometimes said in a cynical way – will be vaccinated, cured or dead. But in fact it is,” said Spahn, referring to the so-called 3G system used in the country, which limits access to public places to “vaccinated, cured or tested” people.
Vaccines are available on German territory, free of charge, for anyone over 12 years of age. About 68% of the population is already fully vaccinated, or about 56.7 million among the country’s 83 million inhabitants.
Official figures indicate that deaths and hospitalizations have not accompanied the rise in cases at the same rate during the fourth wave in Germany, when a significant portion of the population is already vaccinated.
The graph above, from the website Our World in Data, a publication by the University of Oxford, shows the evolution of confirmed cases of Covid-19 accumulated since January 2020 in Germany (in the blue line) and the accumulated total of deaths from the disease in the country (on the orange line).
Incidence between vaccinated and unvaccinated
The separation of Covid-19 incidence data according to vaccination status, which has been released by German states and national health authorities, demonstrates how vaccination is preventing severe cases and hospitalizations for the disease.
The state of Bavaria, for example, publishes weekly the incidence separately between vaccinated and unvaccinated. This Thursday, the incidence recorded in the last seven days was 112.7 infections per 100,000 vaccinated, and 1,726.3 among those not vaccinated in the southern state of Germany.
The difference in incidence between vaccinated and unvaccinated in Bavaria has increased each week. Today it is 15 times higher among the unvaccinated, whereas two weeks ago, this factor was 9.8. Hospitalization rates for those vaccinated are also lower. About 90% of Covid’s patients admitted to hospitals in the state had not been vaccinated, governor Markus Söder said last week.
Nationally, the scenario repeats itself. The Robert Koch Institute bulletins on the Covid situation in Germany have recently included the incidence of symptomatic Covid-19 cases and those hospitalized for the disease separately between vaccinated and unvaccinated, according to age group.
In Germany, in the week of November 8 to 14, the incidence of symptomatic cases of Covid-19 for every 100,000 unvaccinated / fully vaccinated, according to age group, was the following, according to RKI data released this Thursday:
Unvaccinated 12-17 years old | 364 |
Vaccinated 12-17 years old | 38.2 |
Unvaccinated 18-59 years old | 242.4 |
Vaccinated 18-59 years old | 88 |
Unvaccinated 60+ years | 137.6 |
Vaccinated 60+ years | 51.2 |
During the same week in the country, the rate of hospitalizations per Covid-19 cases for every 100,000 unvaccinated / fully vaccinated, according to age group, was as follows:
Unvaccinated 12-17 years old | 1.9 |
Vaccinated 12-17 years old | 0.3 |
Unvaccinated 18-59 years old | 8.1 |
Vaccinated 18-59 years old | 1,2 |
Unvaccinated 60+ years | 33.6 |
Vaccinated 60+ years | 6.4 |
“A sad day,” laments Merkel
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will soon leave office, lamented the milestone of 100,000 deaths in the pandemic reached in the country on Thursday.
“The day when we must mourn 100,000 coronavirus victims is a sad day,” Merkel told a news conference.
She asked the next government to act quickly to impose new measures of distancing, to stop the spread of contagions. “The people who get sick today are the intensive care patients for the next 10 to 14 days. Therefore, it is crucial to ensure that our hospitals are not overloaded,” he said.
The new three-party alliance that is expected to take over in early December announced during the presentation of its coalition agreement on Wednesday that it will form a team of experts to assess the situation on a daily basis.
In several regions of Germany, measures have been imposed to allow access to closed facilities only to people who have been vaccinated or who have recently recovered from the disease, and no longer to those who test negative.
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