The fears of a open war that drags to Middle East still open and regional conflict continued to rise on Monday after Israel launched its largest wave of attacks against Hezbollah in southern and eastern Lebanon since hostilities between the two sides escalated a week ago.
According to the criteria of
The Israeli Air Force said it hit about 800 targets of the pro-Iranian movement in some bombings that left 274 dead, including about 21 childrenPhotographers and correspondents in Sidon, one of the main cities in southern Lebanon, They were able to see vehicular chaos and hundreds of cars full of families trying to leave the area in the face of the growing wave of violence.
For its part, Hezbollah claimed it launched “dozens of rockets” against two Israeli bases “in response to attacks by the Israeli enemy in the south and in the Bekaa Valley,” after having targeted three other Israeli targets in the morning.
No military escalation, no assassination, no all-out war will bring the residents (of northern Israel) back to the border.
The exchange of aggression between Israelis and Hezbollah has occurred almost daily on the border with Lebanon since the start of the Gaza war.However, after the sabotage operation that ended with the explosions of the beepers and walkie-talkies last week, which left more than 30 people dead and around 3,000 injuredThese new attacks appear to be the prelude to a broader war in the region.
In fact, Egypt said it feared a “total war” in the Middle East and warned that the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah could undermine efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli military is continuing its devastating retaliatory offensive.
While the UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, warned on Sunday that the region is in danger of “on the brink of imminent catastrophe.”
Iran, an ally of Hezbollah, warned Israel on Monday of “dangerous consequences” for its attacks in Lebanon, and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas denounced a “savage aggression.”
What are the risks and how likely is a major conflict between Israel and Lebanon?
According to Jeremy Bowen, international editor for the BBC, “We are seeing another very large escalation by the Israelis. Perhaps their calculation is that they believe that Hezbollah is in such a weakened position at the moment that this is their chance to really inflict some damage on it and change the strategic landscape in the hills and towns on both sides of the border between Israel and Lebanon.”
Bowen said the sabotage operation involving the beepers and walkie-talkies was a moral and strategic blow to the pro-Iranian militia, something Israel would seek to capitalize on.
But Bowen adds: “Their decision to go on the offensive is risky. Although Hezbollah is wounded, it has plenty of capacity to fight back. And that is why Israel’s friends and enemies alike continue to prepare for the worst.
Thus, in the following days or weeks there may be a resurgence of military actions on both sides, as occurred during the confrontation that both had in the Second Lebanon War in 2006And judging by the statements of both Israel and Hezbollah, this scenario seems inevitable despite the efforts of the international community.
We are in a regional war. There is no danger. It is happening. It has been going on for 11 months.
Just after the explosion of communication equipment in Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, announced that his country was facing “a new phase” of the conflict, whichThe “center of gravity” of the war was shifting northward and military operations against Hezbollah would continue.
For his part, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahusaid this weekend that “in recent days, “We have inflicted on Hezbollah a sequence of blows that it could not have imagined. If you have not understood the message, I promise you will,” he added.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, promised a strong response against the Hebrew state and warned that the clashes between the two have entered their “most precise, sensitive, deep and important part.”
All of this has forced tens of thousands of civilians from both countries to flee. And for the Israeli prime minister,one of its objectives is to get its citizens to return to their homes in the north of the country.
However, Nasrallah insists that this will “never” happen. “No military escalation, no assassination, no all-out war will bring about the return of the residents (of northern Israel) to the border” with Lebanon, he said.
For its part, Hezbollah’s number two, Naim Qasem, announced “a new phase” in the battle against Israel, that of settling “pending scores.”
Thus, everything seems to indicate that Israel will continue bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon to reduce its attack capacity, since many believe that the militia would be “forced” to respond to the sabotage operation considered a major blow to that organization.
Further Israeli attacks on Lebanon are likely in the coming weeks. However, both sides continue to assess that a prolonged full-scale war would prove costly, but the risks of conflict for both Lebanon and Israel are under increasing pressure.
“The beeper attack humiliated Hezbollah. It became clear to its supporters that it is vulnerable and infiltratable. This is precisely what forces the organization to react in a very forceful Islamist way,” Yossi Kuperwasser, former brigadier general of the Military Intelligence Service of the Israel Defense Forces, told this newspaper.
Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said that Hezbollah and Iran, its strategic partner in the region, have avoided a “wider regional conflagration” since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza.
However, Hage Ali says he believes “the attack increases pressure on Hezbollah to respond, given its impact on party morale, as well as the fact that it resulted in casualties among family members of Hezbollah’s political wing leaders in Lebanon.”
Control Risks, a global risk consultancy, agrees. “Further Israeli attacks on Lebanon are likely in the coming weeks. However, both sides continue to assess that a prolonged, large-scale war would be costly, but the risks of conflict for both Lebanon and Israel are under increasing pressure,” a September 19 report said.
However, there are those who believe that the so-called “regional escalation” arrived in the region a long time ago. “We are in a regional war. There is no danger. It is happening. It has been going on for 11 months,” Michael Oren, a former Israeli parliamentarian, former deputy minister in the prime minister’s office and former Israeli ambassador to the United States between 2009 and 2013, told this newspaper.
The international community’s concern for the security of the Middle East
Faced with this escalation, the United States, Israel’s main ally, has urged its citizens to leave Lebanon.
“We will do everything we can to prevent a broader war from breaking out,” President Joe Biden said.
China, meanwhile, called on its citizens to leave Israel “as soon as possible.”
The European Union, “deeply concerned”, called for an “urgent” ceasefire, and London reiterated its support for “a two-state solution”.
“I believe in Israel’s right to security. And I also believe in the justice of the Palestinian cause,” said British Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
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