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The Shiite movement and its affiliated groups were unable to defend the number of seats they won in 2018. With 62 out of 128, they failed to remain the dominant force in Parliament, reflecting the population’s discontent with the ruling elite. While 13 places went to the independent groups that emerged after the 2019 protests. The new scenario can deepen the political stillness and delay the reforms that the country needs.
This Tuesday, the Lebanese Ministry of the Interior published the results of the parliamentary elections that took place last Sunday. The figures showed that the Hezbollah group and its allied parties will no longer make up the majority of the Chamber, an important change compared to the panorama that was digitized after the 2018 elections, when they kept 71 of the 128 seats.
On this occasion, the first since the economic collapse and the explosion of the Beirut port, they won 62 seats and it means a blow to the ruling political class for decades.
In contrast, the surprise was given by the 13 seats won by candidates of the reformist politics that were born in public spaces during the movements of autumn 2019.
Despite the harassment and threats from the most powerful groups, they could not break the will of these legislators who represent the tiredness of the population against the ‘establishment’ and its corruption.
Risk of political stalemate
Gaining the most ground in the elections was Hezbollah’s main opponent, the Lebanese Forces, which is aligned with Saudi Arabia and a Christian faction. It became the largest Christian party in Lebanon by overtaking the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).
Political heavyweights have been sidelined after being defeated at the polls. Such is the case of Talal Arslan, heir to one of the nation’s oldest dynasties and an ally of Hezbollah, who fell against an ‘outsider’.
The Sunni Muslim Faisal Karami, a descendant of another traditional Lebanese political dynasty, is also another of the prominent pro-government supporters who were left without his seat. In addition, the vice president of Parliament, Elie Ferzli, was left without his site.
The Congress will be divided into several factions, but they could be reduced to three: Hezbollah, Lebanese Forces and a small third sector opposed to both that will be decisive in resolving the debates.
However, the scenario remains at the mercy of increasing the possibility of political stagnation and tensions that would slow down the reforms and measures that Lebanon needs to get out of the economic collapse, with a society that has 80% below the poverty line.
wow #lebanon14 independent departments #parlement sur 128. Une première dans un pays miné par le clientelism. Certains ont même arraché des sièges à des présents sur l’échiquier politique depuis des cénnies, dont le #Hezbollah. pic.twitter.com/NmMthRc2kd
— Zeina Antonios (@zeinaantonios) May 17, 2022
Following the 2018 elections, the results have thrown Lebanon close to the orbit of Hezbollah-backing Iran, however the growth of the Lebanese Forces may force the push for Saudi Arabia to reinstate its influence.
United Nations and a request for unity
The Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, issued a statement last Monday requesting that an Executive be swiftly composed that includes members of the different blocs -something that is seen as very unlikely- to accelerate economic stabilization policies and an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Even the next appointments of a president of the Parliament and of the next prime minister of Lebanon are elucidated as tense combats.
Since the social outbreak of 2019, where citizens strongly demonstrated their discontent against a corrupt and inefficient political class, the economic crisis has intensified. The World Bank considers it one of the worst since the Industrial Revolution, with a currency devaluation of 90%.
This decline plunged almost three quarters of the population into the poverty line, a framework that led to vote buying, one of the complaints that haunted the recent elections.
On Tuesday, the European Union Electoral Observation Mission said in a statement that these votes had been “overshadowed by widespread practices of vote buying, patronage and corruption.”
Female representation on the rise
One of the most outstanding additions left by the election results is the growth in the number of women legislators. Despite the fact that Lebanon remains deeply behind when it comes to women’s rights, there will be eight women parliamentarians in this chamber.
It is a record number in the history of Lebanese politics. Half of them are from the independent spaces that have just landed in the countryside and are opponents of Hezbollah. In the 2018 elections, six seats had been left in the hands of women.
Also this new camera registers a sad record. Of 128 seats, there will be 8 occupied by women. They represent 2 more deputies than in 2018. Half of the new legislators belong to the opposition. Lebanon has been at the bottom of gender equality for years and this is another finding.
– andrea lópez-tomàs (@andrelopeztomas) May 17, 2022
Parliamentarians linked to the explosion in the port of Beirut
Two of the Lebanese lawmakers accused of being linked to the deadly 2020 Beirut port explosion were re-elected in the first vote since the catastrophe. This aroused the fear of relatives of the victims who do not want the investigation to continue to be delayed.
In total, 215 people were killed in the explosion, the causes of which are not entirely clear. However, relatives blame security failures by high-ranking political officials, demands that have materialized in protests.
Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zeaiter, both members of the Shiite Amal Movement – a faction close to Hezbollah – won seats in Baalbek-Hermel and southern Lebanon, respectively.
The two have been accused since December 2020, but have denied negligence and did not even attend hearings, justifying themselves in the immunity provided by their roles as parliamentarians.
With EFE, Reuters and AP
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