NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s wheat production in 2022 is likely to fall after record harvests over the past five years, after a sudden surge in temperatures in mid-March slashed the harvest in the world’s second-largest wheat producer. Lower production could reduce India’s wheat exports. This will cause an additional increase in global wheat prices, which increased after the Russian military attack on Ukraine on February 24. India exported a record 7.85 million tons of wheat in the fiscal year ending in late March, an increase of 275 percent over the previous year. Traders and government officials who waited for another record crop were expecting an opportunity to export 12 million tons in the current 2022/2023 fiscal year. In mid-February, nearly a month before the latest heat wave, the government said India was on track to produce its largest crop yet, at 111.32 million tons. of grain, up from the previous year’s harvest, which amounted to 109.59 million tons. The government has not yet revised its production forecast, but an official memo seen by Reuters said production could drop to 105 million tons this year.
Highest in 122 years
According to data collected by the state-run Indian Meteorological Authority, in 2022, India recorded the warmest month of March in 122 years, with the maximum temperature rising across the country to 33.1 degrees Celsius, 1.86 degrees higher than usual.
Meanwhile, India’s electricity demand hit a record high in April as its northern states hit their hottest heat wave in decades in the lead-up to summer, as a surge in air conditioner use triggered the worst electricity crisis in more than six years. A Reuters analysis of government data showed electricity demand increased 13.2 percent to 135.4 billion kilowatt-hours, with demand in the north growing between 16 percent and 75 percent. Electricity consumption is set to increase as India’s Met Office forecasts higher than normal maximum temperatures in most parts of the Midwest, Northwest, North and Northeast. India and neighboring Pakistan have suffered from extreme temperatures this year, and scientists have warned that more than a billion people are at risk from the heat, linking the early start of a sweltering summer to climate change. Electricity consumption at unprecedented rates led to widespread outages in April as utilities try to meet demand as coal supplies dwindle. Energy supply fell short of demand by 2.41 billion units, or 1.8%, the worst rate since October 2015. India is likely to face more blackouts, as utilities stocks of coal, which were at their lowest levels in the pre-season, are likely to fall. Summer for at least nine years, 13 percent. This comes despite the state-run Indian Coal Company, which accounts for 80 percent of the country’s coal production, increasing its production by more than 27 percent.
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