The risk of coronavirus infections is not the same today as it was six months ago, when the vast majority of the population was unvaccinated. Despite this, the semaphore of indicators of the epidemic in Spain has been marking the same values for more than a year: it places the low risk below 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days, and the very high, above of 250. This is about to change to adapt this scale to the new reality of the country. In the new draft, to which EL PAÍS has had access, the low risk of transmission reaches up to 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
This new document has already been agreed by the Alerts Report, made up of technicians from the Ministry of Health and the autonomous communities, and it will foreseeably be approved this Tuesday by the Public Health Commission, made up of the general directors of this area. If they do not make substantial changes (something that is not foreseeable, according to health sources), Spain, with an accumulated incidence this Monday of 82 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, would once again be at low risk of transmission. It would reach the medium (alert level 2) in case of exceeding 100; the high (level 3) above 300 and the very high (level 4) above 500.
Cumulative incidence has been the most popular indicator when it comes to measuring the incidence of the epidemic in Spain, but to establish the risk in an area another seven main markers and about twenty secondary markers were used. To establish the danger posed by covid in an area, the statistics of the incidence of the disease are crossed with the healthcare pressure in hospitals. These last two that were in force remain the same in this revision of the document: the situation is considered controlled for below 2% of all hospital beds occupied by patients with coronavirus and less than 5% of ICUs. According to the latest Health report, both indicators were below these percentages.
In addition, the traffic lights adds two other main indicators of the hospital situation, which serve to measure the evolution of the most serious cases of covid, and which will also be taken into account to establish alert levels: they are the number of new hospital admissions and ICUs in 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants. When they exceed five and one, respectively, they will overcome the controlled situation (previously called “new normal”) to enter risk 1 (low).
Although these risk levels are designed for territorial units such as provinces or localities, they are usually extrapolated to autonomous communities or even the entire country to give an idea of the general situation. With the new traffic light, Spain would be in a situation of control of the coronavirus, taking into account all the parameters.
The new traffic light emphasizes that the measures in force must be maintained, such as the mask, which is regulated by a national law. “In areas in which activities are carried out indoors and a continued use of the mask can be guaranteed, there will be no reduction in capacity at alert level 1 and capacity will be maintained at 75% at level 2 and 50% at levels 3. and 4. At level 4, depending on the evolution of the epidemiological situation, the closure of the premises or establishments or any additional measure adapted to the specific area may be assessed, ”the document reads.
New restrictions
This is important because, given the rise in cases, there are some communities, such as the Basque Country, that are proposing to tighten the restrictions. The traffic light is not and has never been a mandatory rule, but its function is to guide regional governments when taking measures to control the spread of the virus. In the new version, it establishes changes with respect to the recommendations that had been made.
When an area reaches alert level 1 (low), it should restrict the capacity of the interior of bars and restaurants to 80% (75% in nightlife), guarantee the distance of the chairs from different tables by at least 1.5 meters, allow consumption at the bar only while seated and with a safety distance. At level 2, the maximum capacity should be 50% and groups of more than 15 people should not be allowed in hospitality. And, from level 3 onwards, interiors should be closed, both for hotels and nightlife.
The latter, however, are scenarios that today seem very distant, if they are ever achieved. On the one hand, the revision of the cumulative incidence thresholds has raised the bar and, on the other, the situation in hospitals is very favorable. It would have to rise a lot to reach high levels of risk, something that without being ruled out, does not seem the most likely scenario in the entire country.
Among the new measures, Health technicians and communities also attend mass events. They recommend not celebrating them at alert levels 3 and 4. In the 1, in which they are standing, the capacity should be restricted to 75%; In no case is smoking, consumption of other tobacco products allowed in the area designated for the public and the mandatory nature of the mask is maintained.
Another thing is that the communities comply with these precepts, something that each one has done in its own way throughout the entire pandemic.
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