If Kamala Harris wins three important swing states, she is almost certain to win the US election. But it will be a close call for the Democrat.
Washington, DC – Just a few weeks before the presidential election in the USA, new polls are coming out almost daily about the outcome of the election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican ex-president Donald Trump And they now agree that it was one of the closest results in the history of US elections and could possibly even become “of the century”.
Because while the Democrats under their previous candidate Joe Biden were still well behind Donald Trump in most polls, the new candidate team – Kamala Harris and Tim Walz – has caught up significantly and, according to current forecasts, is heading for victory in some key US states. But in many cases the lead is extremely narrow.
Predictions for the 2024 US election: Neither Trump nor Harris clearly in the lead
According to an analysis by the news channel CNN The US population could even be faced with a result that is as close as ever before. At least if the current trends in calculating the 270 electoral votes needed to win the US election hold true.
In the model that the broadcaster calculates, Harris is almost certainly currently at 225 electoral votes in the traditionally Democratic states and Trump at 219 in the traditionally Republican states. As usual, it would depend on the so-called swing states, where the electorate’s favor changes more frequently between Democrats and Republicans and where, this time too, a close race is emerging almost everywhere.
Trend for the US election: The Democrats must win three swing states
In three of these seven states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – Harris is currently still slightly ahead of Trump and, with the electoral votes to be won there, would have exactly the 270 votes in the Electoral College needed to narrowly win the election, provided she can, as predicted, secure the vote of the representative of the second electoral district in the special state of Nebraska. In this case, Harris would be the winner of the election, even if Trump were to win all the other states.
What makes Nebraska so special is currently up for debate, because only here and in the state of Maine does the “winner takes it all” principle not apply, whereby the votes of all electors go to the party that receives the most votes in the entire state. Instead, in the so-called “split vote” system, votes can be cast both to republican and Democrats. But it is precisely this system that the Republicans around Donald Trump are increasingly questioning.
Nebraska’s role in the US election: Republicans want to change the law
According to media reports, there had been several attempts since the 1990s to move the election result of the three electors back towards “winner takes it all”. In recent weeks, following the rising poll numbers for Harris, the matter has gained momentum again on Trump’s initiative.
So this CNN He spoke to representatives of the Nebraska legislature last week and sent one of his most loyal supporters, Senator Lindsey Graham, to the Midwestern state to discuss the matter. In the case of the traditional electoral system, all three electoral votes from Nebraska would most likely go to Trump, which would make it much more difficult for Harris to win. (saka)
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