Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has turned fatalistic after nearly a year of war in Gaza and is determined to see Israel embroiled in a broader regional conflict, US officials said.
Sinwar has long believed he will not survive the war, a view that has hampered negotiations to secure the release of hostages kidnapped by his group in the October 7 attacks in Israel, according to assessments by US intelligence services.
Its attitude has hardened in recent weeks, according to US officials, and American negotiators now believe that Hamas has no intention of reaching an agreement with Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also rejected the negotiations proposals and has added positions that have complicated the talks. US officials estimate that he is primarily concerned about his political survival and may believe that a ceasefire in Gaza does not serve his interests.
Hamas has shown no desire to engage in talks in recent weeks, U.S. officials say. They suspect Sinwar has become more resigned as Israeli forces pursue him and say they have him surrounded.
A larger war that puts pressure on Israel and its armed forces would, in Sinwar’s view, force them to reduce their operations in Gaza, U.S. officials said.
The war in the region has spread, but not in a way that has significantly benefited Hamas, at least for now.
Immediately after October 7, Hezbollah began carrying out attacks in northern Israel in a show of solidarity with Hamas. Although the attacks drove Israelis from their homes, they did not put pressure on the army. Hezbollah leaders did not want to start a new war with Israel, US officials estimated at the time.
Since the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah began last month, the group has not launched a major counterattack against Israel, much less opened an offensive front. Israeli and American officials say Israel has destroyed half of the militia’s arsenal and killed many of its leaders.
Israeli soldiers entered southern Lebanon this week, following a nearly month-long campaign of bombing and sabotage that included an attack that killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah.
Iran, which backs Hezbollah and Hamas, launched a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday in response to Nasrallah’s assassination. But most of the missiles were shot down or did not cause any real damage.
The inability of Hezbollah or Iran to significantly harm Israel, at least so far, is a telltale sign of Sinwar’s miscalculation, U.S. officials said.
Isolated and hiding in Gaza, Sinwar’s communication with his organization has become strained. He has long since stopped using electronic devices and keeps in touch with his organization through a network of human messengers, according to Israeli and American officials.
The pace of Israeli operations in Gaza has slowed as Israeli leaders have shifted their attention northward. Israeli forces are now in a few positions in Gaza, including what they call the Philadelphia corridor between the enclave and Egypt. Although Israel has not launched a major incursion into civilian areas of Gaza in weeks, it continues to carry out daily airstrikes against Hamas.
As a result, the number of civilian casualties in Gaza continues. In a 24-hour period between Wednesday and Thursday, the Israeli army killed 99 Palestinians in the enclave, local health authorities said, one of the highest numbers in months.
Talks to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and free Israeli hostages have failed. Netanyahu has added demands and revived others that had already been abandoned, frustrating international negotiators. And Sinwar has become much more inflexible, according to US officials.
His actions and motivations have long been the focus of the American intelligence community. But after October 7, spy agencies intensified their work on the Hamas leader, forming a selection cell to study and catch him.
For months, intelligence agencies have considered Sinwar to have a fatalistic attitude and care more about inflicting pain on Israelis than helping Palestinians. US officials are unwilling to discuss their recent collection of information on him, but the view that his attitude is hardening comes from officials studying his negotiating positions and from classified reports.
Sinwar’s position hardened this summer after Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the Qatar-based political leader of Hamas and one of the main negotiators. Haniyeh was a more conciliatory negotiator, interested in reaching a deal, and US officials say he was willing to oppose Sinwar’s most extreme demands. Israel’s decision to kill a senior Hamas leader who was negotiating a ceasefire angered the group and Sinwar, according to US officials.
Some Israeli officials have questioned whether Sinwar is still alive. American and Israeli officials acknowledge that there is no definitive evidence that he is still alive. There have been no audio or video recordings of him for months.
On September 13, Hezbollah released a letter sent by Sinwar in support of Nasrallah. Some Hamas officials, speaking elliptically, suggested that it was written outside Gaza by someone else, with Sinwar’s approval. It was not handwritten, unlike other communications that have been verified to have come directly from him.
But U.S. officials said they had no evidence he was dead, and in fact, senior U.S. officials said they believed he was alive and making critical decisions for Hamas.
Sinwar remains in hiding, but appears to recognize that Israeli forces are closing in on him. They came closer to their position in August, when Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said his forces had discovered evidence that the Hamas leader had spent time in the warren of tunnels beneath Rafah in southern Gaza.
“When we entered the tunnels under Rafah, where the hostages were murdered, we found signs of Sinwar’s presence in Tel Sultan,” Gallant recently told reporters, referring to the six hostages believed to have been murdered in a Gaza neighborhood. close to Rafah.
Although Sinwar’s strategy is not working yet, it could ultimately succeed.
Israeli forces are fighting Hezbollah on its territory in southern Lebanon. Although the Israeli government promises a limited incursion into Lebanon, military operations so far have been large-scale.
The fighting has already proven difficult: at least nine soldiers died in the first days of hand-to-hand combat. If heavy fighting continues and Iran becomes involved, Sinwar could get his wish for a multi-front war that would ease pressure on Hamas.
Iran and Israel could continue exchanging ballistic missile attacks. If a weapon causes immense damage, a larger conflict could break out.
US officials are waiting to see if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates further. They do not believe Iran wants a full-scale war with Israel or intervene directly to help Hamas. But they also publicly support a planned Israeli attack on Iran in retaliation for this week’s ballistic missile attack.
“Iran will hold a grudge for the assassination of Nasrallah,” said Scott Berrier, a retired lieutenant general and former director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency. “But your options are limited. “I don’t see Iran confronting Israel in the near future.”
A senior US official said Iran’s actions in recent months had sent a clear message to Sinwar: “The cavalry will not come.”
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