WashingtonHamas leader Yahya Sinwar is fatalistic after nearly a year of war in Gaza and hopes to see Israel become involved in a broader regional conflict, US officials said.
Sinwar has long not believed he could survive the war, a view that has slowed negotiations to free hostages taken by the group in the October 7 attacks in Israel, according to assessments by American intelligence.
Its attitude has hardened in recent weeks, leading American negotiators to believe that Hamas has no intention of reaching an agreement with Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has also rejected the negotiations’ proposals and added a position that has complicated the talks.
US officials believe he is primarily concerned about his political survival and may believe that a ceasefire in Gaza would not serve his interests.
Hamas has not shown a desire to participate in negotiations in recent weeks. They suspect that Sinwar is increasingly resigned to being pursued by Israeli forces and talks about being caught.
A longer war would put pressure on Israel and its military, in Sinwar’s assessment, and force it to scale back operations in Gaza, U.S. officials said.
The war in the region has expanded, but not in a way that has significantly benefited Hamas, at least not yet.
Since the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah began last month, the group has not launched a major counterattack in Israel, much less opened an offensive front.
American and Israeli officials say Israel has destroyed half of the militia’s arsenal and killed many of its leaders.
Israeli troops moved into southern Lebanon this week, after nearly a month of bombing and sabotage that included an attack that eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Iran, which supports Hezbollah and Hamas, launched a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday in response to Nasrallah’s assassination.
Although most of the missiles were shot down or did not cause any real damage.
The failure of either Hezbollah or Iran to cause significant damage to Israel, at least so far, is a sign of Sinwar’s miscalculation, U.S. officials said.
Isolated and hidden in Gaza, Sinwar’s communication with his organization has been strained, he has long stopped using electronic devices and remains in contact with his organization through a network of messengers.
The pace of Israeli operations in Gaza has slowed as Israel has shifted its attention to the north.
They have also failed to conduct major raids on civilian areas in Gaza for weeks, although they continue to launch daily airstrikes against Hamas.
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