Almost half of Brazilian municipalities registered, last week, a high incidence of covid-19, according to an analysis released this Friday, 23, by the Instituto Todos pela Saúde (ITpS) based on data from the Ministry of Health. According to the institute, 2,552 cities (out of a total of 5,297 that sent the data) had more than 100 cases of the disease per 100,000 inhabitants, which characterizes the high incidence. “In these municipalities, 47% of the Brazilian population lives, and their residents are exposed to high levels of viral transmission”, highlighted Todos pela Saúde.
Another survey, this one carried out by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and released on Thursday, the 22nd, showed that there is a trend towards an increase in hospitalizations due to covid-19 in the country. According to experts, the two analyzes light the alert for increased transmission during the end of year festivities and possible overload of health services in January.
The ITpS analysis shows that 21 of the 27 federation units have a high incidence – only São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Pará, Amazonas, Maranhão and Piauí are outside this group. The highest rates were recorded in Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso and the Federal District, all with records of more than 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last week.
The institute also analyzes data from laboratory networks, which show that test positivity rates remain high – above 30% since the beginning of November. For immunologist Jorge Kalil, director-president of ITpS, people should be careful during the year-end celebrations, although the current epidemiological scenario is less threatening than that of the first two years of the pandemic.
“The situation is not so comfortable. The disease is present and the virus continues to circulate. The great concern is with people who have not yet completed the vaccination schedule with four doses. They should get the vaccine as soon as possible. It is these people who are getting more serious when infected”, says the expert.
He recalls that, last year, the end of year festivities were the dissemination of the Ômicron variant in the country, causing millions of new cases. “As we have more people vaccinated and with booster doses, a new wave may not be as overwhelming, but covid-19 can still kill”, he says.
The institute’s analysis also shows that the BQ.1 substrain of the Ômicron variant is already predominant in the country. High viral transmission favors the emergence of new mutations and variants that may have greater escape from the vaccine, experts say.
admissions
The Fiocruz survey, which monitors hospitalizations for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on a weekly basis, shows growth in hospitalizations in the long-term trend (last six weeks) and stability in the short-term (last three weeks). According to the researchers, “the slowdown in the national curve can be attributed to the recent drop in SARS cases in the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo”.
Twenty of the 27 states of the federation show moderate SARS growth in the long-term trend: all of the South and Midwest regions, the entire Northeast region, with the exception of Paraíba, in addition to Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rondônia and Tocantins.
Among the capitals, 14 of the 27 have discharged hospitalizations in the same period: Aracaju, Belo Horizonte, Boa Vista, Brasília, Curitiba, Goiânia, Maceió, Manaus, Natal, Porto Alegre, Porto Velho, Recife, São Luís and Teresina.
Tips to reduce the risk of contamination at the end of the year festivities
– Complete the vaccination schedule against covid with the two regular doses and the booster doses indicated for your age group
– If you are going to gather the family for the end of year festivities, choose a wide and well-ventilated place. If the weather permits, celebrate outdoors, such as in backyards or terraces.
– If possible, avoid kissing and hugging many different people without a mask, especially if you are from the highest risk group, such as the elderly and people with comorbidities
– If you are part of the higher risk groups, consider wearing a mask during the celebrations or maintaining physical distance from the other participants while you are without the piece, such as when you go to eat or drink
– Isolate yourself and do not participate in celebrations if you have respiratory symptoms
– Take a self-test before the celebration, and if you test positive, stay home
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