A year ago, the assassination of the president of Haiti, Jovenel Moïse, was seen as the highest point of a social, political, economic and security crisis that had dragged the island for some time. His murder reflected that the situation in one of the most troubled countries in Latin America had reached rock bottom.
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However, for Mauricio Jaramillo, a professor at the Universidad del Rosario and an analyst in international affairs, the outlook remains dark and a political transition is not in sight, something that was seen as one of the key measures to get Haiti out of the crisis.
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“Even before Moïse’s death, it was expected that the elections would take place. Today we are far from that scenario,” said the academic.
Alan Zamayoa, an analyst at Control Risks, thinks along the same lines, describing that the political situation today is extremely unstable.
“The mandate of the interim prime minister, Ariel Henry, has been harshly questioned since day one (…). There has been no substantial progress regarding the holding of the constitutional referendum and the elections (scheduled for September 2021). Henry is in no hurry to call elections, which has been evident given the disdain for appointing members of the Provisional Electoral Council,” Zamayoa said.
To this perfect storm are added the blows of the pandemic and the effects of the war in Ukraine on the world economy.
“Haiti continues to be the country in the Americas with the lowest rate of vaccination against covid-19. On the other hand, the reconstruction of the areas affected by the August 2021 earthquake continues to move extremely slowly, in part because the government does not have the necessary resources,” adds Zamayoa.
gangs and insecurity
However, perhaps one of the most serious problems facing the country today is the high rates of crime and insecurity due to gangs, a scourge that has paralyzed much of the Haitian economy and society.
In fact, Zamayoa assures that the high levels of violence are one of the reasons that Henry uses to postpone the elections indefinitely, arguing that there are no guarantees to hold the elections.
“Various gangs and local criminal groups have practically taken over areas of the capital such as Martissant and Croix-des-Bouquets, and have increased their presence in areas that they normally did not enter, such as Pétion-Ville,” adds Zamayoa.
Months ago there were some protests outside Henry’s house by lawyers and judges, who demonstrated against the insecurity that exists in the country. The kidnapping of lawyers, threats and high levels of corruption make it practically impossible to attend the courts to advance in the cases in which justice advances, causing high levels of impunity.
In total, according to a count by the Center for Analysis and Research on Human Rights, in the first quarter of 2022, the country registered some 225 kidnappings.. Such is the power of these criminal organizations, that since June 1, 2021, the authorities lost control of the only road that connects Port-au-Prince, the capital, with the southern half of the country, a two-kilometer stretch that it is full of armed gangs.
“The struggle between these groups to control various neighborhoods in the metropolitan area has led to the gangs controlling the exit of National Route 2, which connects the capital with the south of the country, and the area near the port terminals, considerably affecting the distribution of goods such as fuel”, adds Zamayoa.
Through extortion of the industry, the gangs have become yet another obstacle to awakening the Haitian economy, in recession since 2019 and which could grow by only 0.3% this year, according to optimistic government forecasts.
“More and more companies in difficult areas, with great violence, are closing their stores and leaving more people unemployed,” economist Etzer Emile told AFP.
This economic collapse of Haiti has caused many capitals to migrate to the neighboring country.
“Dozens and dozens of Haitian businessmen have migrated to the Dominican Republic and here, in Haiti, they only keep their companies afloat,” Grégory Brandt, president of the Franco-Haitian chamber of commerce and industry, sadly told AFP.
On the other hand, the specter of the 2008 hunger riots hangs over Haiti while wheat prices are also rising due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, two of the world’s leading wheat producers.
“This is beginning to affect the entire production of industrial goods derived from wheat in Haiti, such as flour or pasta, which have already seen, since the war, an increase of more than 30%”, highlights Emile, who recalls that Haiti it imports twice as much rice, wheat and corn as it produces locally.
While Haitian households spend 60% of their income on food, according to the National Institute of Statistics, food insecurity already affected 4.5 million inhabitants of the country, before the start of the war in Europe. On the island, 60% of citizens live below the poverty line.
“This morning for breakfast, the children asked for bread, but we couldn’t buy it: although they don’t like it very much, we replaced it with cassava cookies,” says Michele, who lives in Port-au-Prince with her mother, sister and three nephews.
With this gloomy panorama, one year after Moise’s assassination, the main problems in Haiti continue at a galloping pace.
“There are still serious problems, express kidnapping, there are still murders; the gang problem is out of control. One year after the crisis we see very little progress in security, in democracy and economic reactivation”, Jaramillo notes.
CARLOS JOSE REYES GARCIA
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
TIME
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