The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, struggles in recent days to show some sign of budgetary discipline in public accounts. The number one challenge in this regard is to curb the president’s appetite Bolsonaro for more spending in the middle of the electoral campaign season. Guedes wants to avoid civil servants and police readjustments, promised by the agent. It also intends to advise against such fuel vouchers to truck drivers, in addition to reducing tax incentives, subsidies to public banks, exemptions and waivers. For that, the “Posto Ipiranga” knows, it will have to count on the support and favorable understanding of the National Congress itself. In that house, from the beginning, the minister did not gather many allies. Instead. His relationship, especially with the presidents of both the House and the Senate, are, to say the least, distant. To change this reality, he has been putting together a “true apparatus of war”, in the words of one of his collaborators, and plans to win the approval of other ministers to protect the budget. The picture is not the easiest. The parliament itself — which also corroborates the president’s/candidate’s intention in the desire for more expenses — has just approved the extension until 2023 of the measure that removes part of the expenses with charges on salaries from companies in 17 sectors. It’s one more hole in the calculations to close the Executive’s account. On the other hand, contrary to the minister’s intention, an official letter from his ministry suggests the inclusion of R$ 100 billion in additional expenses in the 2022 Budget. The explanation would be the need to increase resources for social security benefits, unemployment insurance and salary allowance.
It is well known, the short blanket of public accounts does not cover, even close, the exorbitant volume of expenses, discretionary or not, and the sea of amendments, these in constant growth to satisfy the political will. Serious reengineering is needed in the allocation of resources. The review of mandatory commitments, for example, appears as a pre-condition for guaranteeing the welfare program, recently created by the government, called Auxílio Brasil, promised at around R$ 400 per beneficiary. With so many and so poorly planned actions, it is inevitable that, one day, the rope will break. And that might not take long. Hence the minister’s effort in the crusade to contain the captain’s costly fury. The so-called “fun to civil service”, which Bolsonaro said he wanted to do — “let it be 1%”, he claims — would emerge as a measure capable of breaking the dyke on its own. The pressure is enormous and technicians are unanimous in announcing that they will ask for the cap if the abuses continue. Many have already taken their way home for the same reason. Especially when the minister agreed to the bursting of the ceiling and the default of court orders. For Guedes, the situation was not comfortable. Nor internally, much less in the relationship with other guests in Brasília. As a result, he was unable to carry out any of his promises of the liberal agenda which he proposed. He is seen as someone who promises a lot and delivers little. Or almost nothing.
Carlos José Marques Editorial Director
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