By SIMONE PELUSO
If Red Bull – and Verstappen in particular – seems to have put a serious risk on victory in China after the pace shown in the Sprint, the the battle for the third step of the podium will be anything but a given. Precisely the race on Saturday morning allowed the teams and Pirelli to collect important data in view of Sunday, on a track which had not been raced on for five years and with an asphalt 'spoiled' by the now famous layer of bitumen which made it particularly slippery in the first laps of the weekend.
There tire degradation management it will be a fundamental aspect, which inevitably pushes towards a two-stop strategy where all three compounds – Soft included – can be part of the match and mix the cards on the table even more.
Simone Berra, Chief Engineer of Pirelliillustrated the possible scenarios that the Italian supplier expects to see in the Chinese Grand Prix (start at 9am Italian time).
“The degradation is quite high, which is why we expect the teams to be oriented towards going on more stops. We have two two-stop options that are the fastest on paper. Starting on the Medium, doing a stint on the Hard and then finishing the last part of the race still on the Medium. Or start with the Medium and do two stints on the Hard. Obviously not all teams have two hards, so everything will also depend on the availability of sets that the individuals have. For example, Red Bull and Ferrari have two hards, McLaren, Aston Martin and Mercedes only one.”
Soft not to be discarded, powerful undercut
As anticipated, also the Soft (used only by Russell in the Sprint) could be a valid solution: “There are also alternative strategies using the Soft, which didn't go so badly in the Sprint and allowed Russell to stay with the best group – explained Berra – The grade was quite in line with Medium. The idea could be to start with the Soft and then do two stints with the Hard, obviously for the teams that have them available, or to use all three compounds. This would allow us to do a slightly shorter initial stint and try to use the undercut to overtake the riders in front, but in reality it is not the best strategy”.
The undercut, therefore, will be a very important element. In recent editions we have seen how it has allowed us to earn money up to three seconds on the exit lap: this could allow those in traffic, by bringing the tires to good temperature, to avoid being trapped in complicated “DRS trains”.
Ferrari, is it possible to have a one-time stop like in Japan?
In the first four races we saw a Ferrari that was very docile with the tyres, capable of managing degradation better enough to bring Leclerc, in Japan, to risk a one-stop strategy – against the two of the others – recovering several positions. Is this a solution that the Rossa technicians can also think of for this race? The situation is actually slightly different, starting from the compounds available which are a step softer than Suzuka.
“Certainly those who have less degradation will be advantaged by perhaps being able to extend the run and then try to overtake in the second part. Overtaking is doable here, if you have more speed you can attack with DRS thanks to a very long straight. We saw it today with Alonso who went into crisis with the last part of the stint and was very vulnerable. Do though a single stop here is, on paper, 10 seconds slower with the data we have at the moment. So I honestly see it difficult even for those who, like Ferrari, have good tire management“ Berra emphasized. “It's true that Shanghai is a less demanding circuit than Suzuka, but it still has very fast corners, where thermal degradation is important. Above all here you have much more traction and we know well that, when the degradation comes from combined traction, it is much more difficult to manage the tire. This is why a one-stop strategy doesn't pay off on paper.”
Hamilton can take a risk with Hard at the start
Who will be called to the undertaking is Lewis Hamilton, only 18th in qualifying. The Englishman, who does not have a high-performance car in his hands like his rivals in front, can try a different joker like the departing Hard.
“Yes, I expect this because, starting so far back, even with the hard tire you have little to lose. Even if the grip at the start of the C2 is much lower than that of the C3 and C4, you then have the advantage of being able to go longer and being able to manage a different strategy in the second part of the race. Already in the past in China someone, starting from behind, attempted a comeback like this”.
Little advantage from the new tire
Finally, in the Sprint, the use of a new tire made no difference and he won't even do it in the race except at the start and at most on the first lap. Simone Berra explained to us why: “As mentioned, Shanghai is a circuit that has a lot of thermal degradation, so the real difference between new and used tires can only be seen in a performance run in qualifying. In race one new tire may perhaps give a little more grip at the start, but after the first lap the performances are equal and then afterwards the management of the tire has more effect than using the new tyre (as happened to Sainz in the Sprint, ed.)“.
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