A month and a half before the elections, the vote is divided in Germany and only tripartites will be able to govern
Worse could not develop for the German conservatives and their criticized candidate for the Federal Chancellery, the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia and president of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Armin Laschet, the pre-campaign for the general elections next September. The dark omens of the different electoral polls culminated this Wednesday with the poll by the Forsa demographic institute and its «Trendbarometer», the trend barometer that it produces weekly for the RTL and N-TV television networks and that places the parties of the Union , the CDU and its Bavarian Social Christian brothers (CSU), faced with the worst potential result in the history of the Federal Republic. The poll gives the conservatives only 23% of the vote, three points less than last week and almost 10 less than in the 2017 elections, and gives wings to the Greens with 20% and the Social Democrats (SPD) with a 19%, who cut distances and get dangerously close to their main rival. The Liberals (FDP) rise up to 12%, while 7% would give their vote to the Left and 10% to the ultranationalists of Alternative for Germany (AfD).
With a vote as fragmented as never in the past in this country, a government coalition between two political formations, the usual thing until now for more than seven decades, is impossible and forces the search for tripartite pacts that will greatly complicate the negotiations. With the results of the survey in sight, four alternatives would be possible, from an agreement between conservatives, liberals and environmentalists, such as the one that four years ago the Federal Chancellor, Angela Merkel, tried unsuccessfully to reach an alliance of Greens, Social Democrats and La Left, which would be a radical lurch for German politics. The blame for the conservative collapse is to be found in its candidate, by far the most unpopular and the worst placed among the favorites to assume Merkel’s succession in power. If the Germans could directly choose their head of government, 26% would opt for the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, 16% for the green Annalena Baerbock and only 12% would want Laschet as head of the executive.
Armin Laschet does not even have the support of the Union voters. Only 39% of conservative voters in Germany back the president of the CDU. Furthermore, 50% of those consulted and more than 60% of the Union’s voters are of the opinion that the head of the government of North Rhine-Westphalia should immediately renounce his candidacy for the Federal Chancellery in favor of Markus Söder, President of the CSU and Prime Minister of Bavaria, undisputed favorite to occupy the head of the German government. In a direct election, 40% of Germans would vote for Söder, almost three times more than Laschet adds, who won the Conservative candidacy after beating his Bavarian rival in a controversial and disputed internal duel. The conservative leader officially began his election campaign on Wednesday at a youth boxing camp in Frankfurt, where he stepped into the ring with a combative spirit, donned his gloves and challenged his rivals to “start a political campaign once and for all.” in which content is debated.
The conservative leader, however, has been in negative headlines for weeks. To his mismanagement of the recent floods and floods, which alone in the region that governs almost fifty deaths, must be added small scandals that are now coming to light such as the accusations of plagiarism for a book he wrote in 2009 on the possibilities of migration for the country and that has turned out to be full of citations of foreign works whose origin is hidden. Or the inopportune laugh that was seen to release when the federal president, Frank Walter Steinmeier, addressed the victims of the floods and the television cameras recorded him behind the back of the president in an inappropriate humorous situation. He is also attributed a criticized closeness to Opus Dei, an ultra-conservative Catholic movement to which the head of its government office in Düsseldorf, Nathanael Liminski, his right-hand man and man of maximum confidence, apparently belongs. And he also has to endure the blows of Söder, who, aware of his popularity and hurt by not being able to lead the conservatives, does not miss an opportunity to expose Laschet and teach him to do things better.