The Italian economy is running fast and the numbers that lie ahead for 2021 prove Mario Draghi right that yesterday at the press conference he explained to expect growth “well over 6%”. In the third quarter, Istat estimates that GDP is increased by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter and by 3.8% in trend terms. Trend that delivers a change acquired for 2021 equal to + 6.1%, therefore net of the fourth quarter figure which given the trend will be positive by increasing the final balance. GDP is expressed in concatenated values with reference year 2015 and is corrected for calendar and seasonally adjusted effects.
In the three months from July to September, Italy is growing at a faster rate than Germany. According to flash estimates by the Federal Statistical Institute, i bottlenecks on supply chains that are hitting the producers from beyond the Alps have expansion, generating lower than expected growth of the German economy. There locomotive of Europe, the first manufacturing in the Old Continent, increased at a rate of 1.8% over the quarter in seasonally adjusted terms. While a survey of economists interviewed by the Reuters had predicted an increase of 2.2%.
D.fter a strong recovery in the second quarter of 2021, comments the Institute of Statistics, in the third quarter of the year the Italian economy still recorded very sustained growth. The result benefited, for the second consecutive quarter, by a strong recovery of the market services sector, the most penalized by the crisis, and of an industry growth.
The cyclical variation is the synthesis of a decrease in added value in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector and a increase both in industry and in services. “Excellent rebound, even if taken for granted”, commented the president of theNational Consumers Union Massimiliano Dona, who added: “With the opening decree of May 18, in fact, many activities gradually reopen. Some from May 22, others from June 1, such as indoor restaurants, and others from July 1, such as swimming pools, wellness centers, cultural centers. It was, therefore, it is foreseeable that the services sector in the third quarter, the most penalized, would drive GDP by the end of lockdown“, continues Dona.
“The bet for the future is at what pace the recovery will continue and how long it will take to recover pre-crisis values”, asked the president of theA C. “Unfortunately inflation risks being a heavy mortgage, both for the direct effects on the reduction of household purchasing power, and consequently on consumption, and because if it does not fall during 2022 as announced yesterday by Lagarde, the ECB would be forced to intervene, with a consequent increase in interest rates and a reduction in the government bond purchase program. The opposite of what it takes for the recovery, “concluded Dona.
But from the Eurotower, the central bank forecasters have raised the inflation estimates for the three-year period 2021-2023 bringing them respectively to 2.3% for 2021, but they will be below 2% (to 1.9%) in 2022 and 1.7% for 2023. Compared to previous estimates, the projections have been revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points for 2021 and 2022 and by 0.2 percentage points for 2023.
The forecasters of the ECB have attributed the upward revisions primarily to rising energy prices And the impact of tensions on the supply chain. As for the near-term outlook, forecasters have reported expecting a further increase in the rate of inflation in the final months of 2021. but they continue to predict a steep drop in inflation to below 2% over the course of 2022.
Even in the long term, inflation expectations for 2026 stood at 1.9%, revised upwards from 1.8% of round previous.
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