GDP, Bank of Italy revises upward estimates: “Pre-pandemic levels by 2023”
Accelerate recovery in Italy, driven by investments. Although some unknowns remain linked to the evolution of the pandemic and the effectiveness of the measures to support the economy. There Bank of Italy revises its economic forecasts upwards estimating a GDP growth in 2021 close to 5%.
|One out of two listed beats covid on the stock exchange – Over half of the listed companies included in the Fitse Mib and Star indices reported revenues to the levels of the first quarter of 2019. Banks did well, with 89% returning to the pre-pandemic. Cars are also growing|
Product growth will stand at 4.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, and pre-pandemic activity levels will be recovered “within the next year”. This is a picture, it is emphasized, which presupposes “that the improvement of the national and global health framework continues and that the support coming from monetary and budgetary policies is maintained”.
The growth profile illustrated, observes via Nazionale, “is heavily dependent on the effectiveness of the support and relaunch measures financed with the national budget and with European funds, including those outlined in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan “. Bank of Italy puts pen to paper in the tables GDP growth of 4.4% in 2021 explaining, however, that this projection does not incorporate the data released by Istat on 1 June, in which growth in the first quarter of the year was revised up by half a percentage point. Taking this into account, the growth estimate for next year, it is highlighted, would be higher by more than half a percentage point, thus approaching 5%.
Industrial production on the rise, exceeding pre-Covid levels in April: + 1.8%
The projections of Via Nazionale do not depart from Confindustria’s forecasts. The president of the industrialists, Carlo Bonomi, said that in 2021 we will have a growth “higher than what has been declared and I think we will break 5%. I believe the conditions are in place for a small economic miracle, but not too small “. The Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, in the last hearing in Parliament, defined “probable” an upward revision of the annual GDP forecast to 4.5% contained in the Economic and Financial Document. In January, the Bank of Italy had estimated GDP growth 3.5% in 2021, 3.8% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. The upward revision for this year and next “mainly reflects the stimulus effects from additional support measures introduced by the Government in recent months and the most up-to-date information on the use of European funds, contained in the Pnrr recently sent to the European Commission ”.