Fuels The price of petrol has already exceeded two euros, and the West has banned the import of Russian oil – it could raise the price of a liter of petrol to more than three euros

Fuels prices began to rise and inflation to accelerate even before the war broke out in Europe. Russian oil, a major oil-producing country, is no longer suitable for the West.

Since Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine, the price of crude oil has risen sharply. The situation has been visible to Finnish motorists at petrol stations, where fuel prices are already well above two euros per liter.

In European countries, the Portuguese administration has decided to reduce fuel taxation in order to ease the situation for consumers.

Many are gritting their teeth at the refueling bill right now, but how expensive can a liter of petrol get at worst?

“It seems that the increase in the world market price has been passed on to the price at the pump. The situation is what it is, ”OP’s chief economist Reijo Heiskanen says.

Heiskanen says that it is very difficult to predict the rise in crude oil and fuel prices.

Analysts have estimated that if all imports of oil supplied by Russia were blocked, the price of oil could rise to about $ 200 a barrel.

Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Aleksandr Novak again has warned that the price could rise to over $ 300.

“Over time, I’ve seen very different throws about where the price of oil can go,” Heiskanen says of the probability of the estimates.

According to Heiskanen, OP uses a rough billing rule, according to which a rise in the price of crude oil by 10 euros per barrel means a rise in the price of a liter of petrol by seven cents.

“The price of crude oil should rise quite a bit under this key rule.”

With this calculation formula, an 80-cent increase in the price of a petrol pump would require a rise in the price of crude oil by more than 110 euros. An increase in the euro would require an increase in the price of more than 140 euros.

On Tuesday morning a liter of 95-octane petrol at a petrol station in helsinki cost eur 2,169. Roughly speaking, to exceed three euros, crude oil would have to cost about 240 euros, or just over $ 260 a barrel. According to the same formula, a barrel of oil priced at $ 300 would mean a price of around € 3.25 per liter for petrol pumps.

Now the price of the Brent futures has risen to about $ 130 a barrel. The current oil price record dates back to early July 2008. Brent oil peaked at $ 146 a barrel before the financial crisis.

Heiskanen points out that in the Middle East, for example, oil industry players have a lot of capacity that could be freed up as the situation intensifies. However, according to Heiskanen, the willingness of oil-producing countries to increase production has been surprisingly sluggish. Higher prices mean more returns for them.

“Liberalizing capacity would calm the market balance. I don’t see that in their [öljyntuottajien] it would be in our interests to raise the price of oil so that it damages the world economy, ”says Heiskanen.

Also a specialist in the Automotive Information Center Hanna Kalenoja stated To HS last week that there is no shortage of oil. The United States and Opec countries could sell more oil if it is not bought from Russia.

Instead, changes in oil supply channels may temporarily increase the price of gasoline and diesel. For example, Neste has announced that it will replace most of its crude oil purchases from Russia with North Sea oil purchases.

“The rise in the price of crude oil was no surprise. Last December, forecasting agencies predicted a rise in prices as the situation in Ukraine began to crisis. There are uncertainties in assessing the development of crude oil prices, ”said Kalenoja.

Russia also plays a major role in the European energy market through natural gas. There is currently a great deal of uncertainty in the market regarding Russia’s own restrictions on natural gas exports. Natural gas prices have already started to rise sharply.

According to Heiskanen, uncertainty in the energy market is also reflected in consumers, but there is no similar complete cessation of consumption as at the beginning of the corona pandemic.

“Basically, the situation of households is good and they accumulated a lot of savings during the pandemic. There is some uncertainty, but there have been no signs of a situation like the beginning of the corona pandemic. ”