“Developments on the ground” in a number of source and transit countries, driven by “global macroeconomic factors” (especially persistent inflation and global recession), will “negatively impact” the socioeconomic conditions of large populations and portend an increase of migratory flows to Europe. For 2023/2024 “it is probable” that the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean routes “will see greater migratory activity and a higher proportion of overall migratory flows towards the external borders of the EU”. This can be read in the analysis of the risks for the coming year by Frontex.
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