From the Leopard to attack on Russian soil: the red lines that fell in Ukraine and those that still stand

The relationship between Ukraine and its NATO allies has followed the same pattern of tug-of-war that exasperates kyiv. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022, limitations that the powers of the Atlantic Alliance imposed in the military field have been overcome for fear of an escalation of war beyond Ukraine. Every major decision, from the delivery of German Leopard tanks to American F-16 fighters, has been preceded by lengthy negotiations. This week one of the great red lines marked since the beginning of Western support for Ukraine has fallen: the use of NATO weapons against military objectives in Russian territory.

The Russian offensive that began on May 10 north of the city of Kharkiv has put on the table the need for Ukraine to use NATO missiles and artillery against targets on the other side of the border. The invader concentrates in the Russian province of Belgorod, bordering the invaded area north of Kharkiv, the positions of its artillery, its missile launches, aviation and control of the drones that operate on Ukrainian soil.

Since early May, kyiv had been pressuring its partners to give approval for the use of its weapons against targets inside Russia. After receiving emphatic denials, this week there were messages of support from powers such as France and Germany and, finally, on Thursday, from the United States. The American and Ukrainian press reported that President Joe Biden had secretly given authorization for his artillery, anti-aircraft systems and Himars medium-range missiles to hit Russian military targets across the border in the provinces of Kharkiv and Sumi. His Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, confirmed this on Friday in a press conference during a NATO meeting in Prague.

In the change in the American position, very gradual but gaining strength as the damage caused by the delay in Congress in renewing military aid to the invaded country became clear, Blinken’s own visit to kyiv two weeks ago was key. A visit in which the head of American diplomacy was able to see first-hand the Ukrainian military needs. But, while the United States accelerates its production of ammunition to send to kyiv and explores ways to accelerate the delivery of weapons, Biden continues to prohibit its long-range ATACMS missiles from being used at long range against Russian territory.

This represents a new barrier that the Ukrainian side will try to overcome. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky added last week that Moscow is massing thousands of soldiers 90 kilometers from the border to redouble pressure on the Kharkiv front. Petro Chernik, colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, assured on May 28 to Espresso that the only way to hit this concentration of troops is precisely with the ATACMS, loaded with cluster munitions. Blinken, asked about this issue in Prague, added that his government “will adapt and adjust his position if necessary.” A wild card position that Washington has reiterated time and time again. “We want to ensure that we proceed both effectively and carefully,” added the Secretary of State.

The new decision by the White House represents “the minimum to help Ukraine in a difficult situation in its northeast,” in the Kharkov area, says John Herbst, of the Eurasia Center of the think tank Atlantic Council. It eliminates, this analyst continues, “a major obstacle in Ukraine’s efforts to defend civilians in Kharkiv and to stop the Russian offensive.” “This half-step is better than nothing,” continues the former US ambassador in kyiv, but “it does not send the necessary message to the Kremlin about US determination” in this war.

nuclear threat

Every green light in favor of Ukraine has been accompanied by threats from Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on May 29 of “serious consequences” if NATO missiles enter Russia: “In Europe, especially in small countries, they must be aware of what they are playing at.”

“Russia has been very skillful in exploiting the fear of the United States and Germany of an unconventional escalation. “Russian nuclear threats have delayed and limited crucial aid for Ukraine,” Mikola Bielieskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, an organization dependent on the Ukrainian presidency, explains to EL PAÍS. Another of the soap operas In this game of pressure was the authorization that Berlin gave in January 2023 to the transfer of the Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian army. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz denied the supply of these armored vehicles for weeks, claiming that it would be a provocation for Russia.

Scholz continues to rule out the shipment of German long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine for fear of a direct conflict between Germany and Russia, although other States did end up facilitating them after more than a year of insistence from kyiv: the United Kingdom and France They will provide their Storm Shadow/Scalp rockets from 2023 and the US, from this spring, the ATACMS. Unlike these countries, Germany does not have the deterrent element of nuclear weapons in its arsenal.

Every decision, “a year late”

“Every decision by our allies comes a year late,” Zelensky told Reuters on May 20. An example of this is the F-16 fighters. Being American-made, the delivery of these aircraft requires prior authorization from Washington. For almost a year, the transfer of the F-16s was denied, citing the difficult training of pilots, the complexity of supplying components and the possibility that the Ukrainian Air Force would use them to attack inside Russia. Biden finally gave his approval in August 2023. The first six devices, donated by Denmark, are expected to enter combat this summer.

The takeoff of the 90 F-16s that Ukraine will have from Denmark, Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands will be important in the defense of Ukraine, but the former commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeri Zaluzhni acknowledged last November that these planes would arrive by at least a year late to be decisive because the enemy has had time to establish a powerful network of anti-aircraft systems in the battle theater.

Ukraine is also testing the limits of its allies. Armored infantry vehicles supplied by the US and Poland were used in the May 2023 incursion into Russian territory by Russian paramilitary groups opposed to Putin. In the operation, which was coordinated by the Ukrainian intelligence services, Belgian and Czech assault rifles were also used, as well as Swedish anti-tank rockets. This caused unrest in the aforementioned countries, but further friction was caused by the use of an American Patriot anti-aircraft missile, donated by Germany, to shoot down a Russian plane in enemy territory, according to the German newspaper. Bild on May 28. Berlin and Washington threatened kyiv to stop providing more Patriot systems, according to this newspaper. Pentagon sources assured last February The New York Times that another Patriot missile destroyed a military cargo plane in the Russian province of Belgorod.

There are American red lines that have also disappeared due to kyiv’s disregard for them. The Ukrainian intelligence services have periodically attacked Russian oil industry facilities with drone bombs since January. This offensive has intensified despite the fact that the US Government has publicly and privately asked Zelensky to stop doing it because it puts the stability of global fuel prices at risk. Biden was equally opposed in the first months of 2022 to Ukraine attacking Russian targets in the Crimean peninsula, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, but his position chan
ged in August of that year after finding, again, that the defending army did not asked permission. Now ATACMS are even launched towards Crimea, such as against a ferry in the Kerch Strait destroyed on May 30 with one of these missiles.

Zelensky has already put on the table what will be the next demand for which his diplomacy will act, once again, as a Malayan drop: the request that NATO planes and air defenses intercept Russian missiles and drones from Poland and Romania. Bielieskov confirms that Ukraine would like to see other red lines fall, such as the reception of US intelligence on the location of military objectives in Russian territory – something the White House refuses – or the entry into action of NATO troops, as has been done. raised by the French president, Emmanuel Macron —and not only of personnel for training. But the most important barrier, adds Bielieskov, will remain that Ukraine is not yet part of NATO: “As long as this is not possible, there will always be red lines.”

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