Hassan Al-Werfalli (Benghazi)
Perhaps no one will be able to predict what will happen in Libya, with certain parties attempting to mobilize the street and ignite the war again in the country, but there is a popular and public desire to resort to the elections box on December 24 to choose who leads the country, instead of resorting to ammunition boxes that will lead More bloodshed and havoc.
By holding the presidential and parliamentary elections next month, the Libyans hope that they will be able to overcome a difficult period that lasted a decade, following the outbreak of the events of February 17, 2011 that toppled the regime of Muammar Gaddafi.
With the intensification of the armed conflict, following the fall of Gaddafi, the conflict turned into a war between the militias that tried to extend their control over the western region on the one hand and the Libyan army forces led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, which led to a clash that reached its climax on April 4, 2019 and this conflict continued for more than a year until An agreement was reached on a ceasefire, activating the political process, and selecting the Committee of 75 to define the features of the road map, which led to the election of a new executive authority represented in a presidential council consisting of a president, two deputies, and a unity government whose main task is to prepare for the elections on December 24.
In the event that the Libyan presidential elections are held, it will be the first in the country’s history after the unification of the three regions “Cyrenaica – Tripoli – Fezzan” in 1951, which means that Libyan citizens will elect for the first time in 71 years a president.
The High Electoral Commission in Libya announced that it had received the papers of 98 candidates, in principle, during the past few days to compete for the presidency in the upcoming December 24 elections.
The head of the High Electoral Commission in Libya, Imad al-Sayeh, expected that the number of candidates in the parliamentary elections to be organized next January will reach about 4,000 candidates.
The Libyan people are looking forward to holding the presidential and legislative elections, at the end of next month, in implementation of the road map set by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in the Geneva meetings. Electing who governs the country during the coming period.
The Libyans adhere to the outcomes of the political process in Geneva, which led to the election of a new executive authority whose main task is to prepare for the elections. This option enjoys unlimited regional and international support. This crystallized in the outcomes of the Paris International Peace Meeting on Libya, which France recently hosted, but there are fears From igniting armed militias and ideological formations in the country during the coming period, because of their refusal to hold elections during this period.
“Observers” warn that the alternative to postponing or canceling the Libyan elections is the return of war and fighting, but more uglier than it was, and no regional or international party will be able to stop it, and this war could turn into a proxy conflict between international parties.
The Libyan researcher and head of the Silvium Foundation for Research and Studies, Jamal Shallouf, explained to Al-Ittihad that Libya is currently passing through a very narrow “bottleneck”, pointing out that reaching the electoral process, which is popularly and internationally, encounters obstacles and obstructions, who consider the elections a political death certificate for them and their financial influence in Libya. . He stated that all possibilities are open, whether by holding elections that lead to stability or failure, bringing Libya back to the square of resorting to arms.
The elected Libyan president will have several files before him, most notably the political, military and economic situation, in light of the insistence of external forces to extend their field influence in the Libyan lands, whether through military agreements that have no legal basis, or through military intervention under the pretext of training army members in the western region to build a military institution. .
Escalation of “brothers”
Political Islam, represented by the terrorist organization “the Brotherhood” and the Libyan Fighting Group, is working to obstruct the presidential and legislative elections, in refusal of some of the candidates, including Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and this current’s fear of the results of the upcoming elections that will produce a figure who has no connection with the “Brotherhood.” Thus, the group’s project in North Africa will be eliminated after its collapse in Libya, in continuation of the state of popular rejection of the “Brotherhood” project completely, whether in Egypt, Tunisia or Sudan.
The Brotherhood is mobilizing armed militias and ideological formations to tamper with the current military scene and create chaos, especially in the cities of the western region, where the electoral weight is concentrated, where there are 1.8 million registered voters with the commission out of 2.8 million Libyan registered voters. Therefore, the terrorist group is mobilizing the street to prevent elections, under the pretext of the absence of a constitution or the failure to consult with the State Council, which is controlled by the Brotherhood, in the process of drafting election laws.
The Brotherhood follows a policy of distortion and intimidation of the High Electoral Commission, and its head, Imad al-Sayeh, who is working to implement the laws referred by Parliament to the commission. To thwart the process of holding elections and the continuation of the state of conflict and political division between the Libyan components and parties.
In turn, the Libyan political analyst Ahmed Al-Mahdawi confirmed in statements to Al-Ittihad that the political process in Libya is heading towards detente, despite the presence of some obstacles practiced by the “Brotherhood” to thwart the elections, pointing out that the convergence of common interests between international parties, especially in the meeting The last Paris calls for optimism, as the international community seeks to partially resolve the Libyan crisis.
Al-Mahdawi ruled out any military escalation in Libya, especially after the recent indications from the AFRICOM forces about securing the elections and punishing obstructionists as well, pointing out his support for dealing with any military move outside the framework of the joint military committee.
He pointed to the possibility of skirmishes between militias and armed formations, which aim to destabilize security and stability in the country.
He stated that the current of political Islam represented by the “Brotherhood” organization and the isolated Mufti Sadiq Al-Ghariani bear the repercussions of the turmoil of the current scene in Libya, as a result of their incitement to the elections and the calls they make to thwart them, creating a state of chaos in the country to enter the Libyan state in a dark tunnel and return to square one.
While the Libyan political researcher Jamal Shallouf confirmed to Al-Ittihad that the most important motive for the security calm in Libya is the anticipation of the elections, pointing out that postponing or canceling the elections will explode the security situation, and perhaps things will be worse than the previous ones, pointing out that the international community is the supervisor and guarantor of the political agreement, so He must bear the responsibility of preventing obstruction of the agreement and his failure to name the obstructionists, starting with those who reversed the constitutional path in the 75th Committee of the Political Dialogue Forum, passing through the obstruction of the State Council headed by the “Brotherhood” Khaled Al-Mashri, or even the temporary executive authority’s request to postpone the elections, which will allow the obstructions to persist And put more obstacles.
Prosecuting the obstructionists
The international community stands firmly during this period to support the holding of the Libyan elections on time, and not to postpone them again, for fear of a resurgence of armed conflict. The participants agreed at the last Paris conference to pursue the personalities and entities that obstruct the holding of elections in Libya, and put them on the sanctions list, except That the matter is soon due to the suspicious moves led by the President of the State Council, Khaled Al-Mashri.
The European countries are particularly keen on the security and stability of Libya during the coming period out of fear for its internal security as a result of the negative repercussions that occur in these countries as a result of the fighting and war in Libya, as well as the aggravation of the phenomenon of illegal immigration that uses the Libyan lands as a starting point for fleeing to Libya. These countries will hold elections to prepare the ground for the existence of regular security and military institutions, away from the domination of armed militias.
Libyan political researcher Jamal Shallouf says: The existence of a firm international position on the obstructionists and the implementation of the list of sanctions stipulated in Security Council Resolution No. 1970 is necessary, including referral to the International Criminal, as this is the best way to save the political process and prevent a regression towards a return to war.
Activate the output
Militarily, the “5 + 5” Libyan Joint Military Committee is preparing to hold intensive meetings, whether in Tunisia, Russia or Turkey, in the coming weeks, to activate the outputs of the special committee to expel all mercenaries, foreign fighters and foreign forces from the country, in order to prevent the state of war and escalation that could be caused by this The foreign elements in Libya, with the support of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, which is keen to participate in facilitating these meetings to bridge the views of the members of the Committee and the other parties.
In an interview with Al-Ittihad, Libyan military sources expected a number of mercenaries and foreign fighters to leave Libyan territory by the first quarter of next year.
With the Libyan elections approaching in the coming weeks, members of the Joint Military Committee fear and anticipate a political division in the country that pushes towards obstructing what the committee is doing, which is feared by some countries keen on the security and stability of Libya during the coming period, and put pressure on political obstructionists to prevent a split Political and social once again in Libya leads to the return of armed conflict.
The Libyan equation remains one of the most difficult equations and crises plaguing the region, given the extensive interventions from foreign parties, in addition to the nature of the conflict during the last period, because the current situation in Libya is unacceptable as a result of economic deterioration, lack of liquidity and the absence of a unified salary schedule for all Libyan employees, in addition to the lack of justice Transparency in distributing the imports of the sale of Libyan wealth, whether from oil and gas, and focusing on development in one of the three regions alone.