Negotiations between Russia and the United States on Russian proposals on security guarantees are scheduled for Monday in Geneva, and another meeting of the Russia-NATO Council will be held in Brussels on Wednesday, then talks between Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna on Thursday.
Russia is demanding security guarantees that would prevent the United States and NATO from expanding eastward to areas the Kremlin considers to be within its sphere of influence, while meeting NATO members in the first such meeting since July 2019.
Serious Developments
Academic specialist in international affairs, Tariq Fahmy, said: “We are facing a dangerous development, the area of tension is increasing between the West and Russia, and there are British moves to send forces, and the US administration is unable to take measures in this context, and therefore all scenarios are possible.”
Fahmy stressed, in statements to “Sky News Arabia”, that Russia “will not make any concessions, and the scenario that took place in the Crimea may be repeated, and the mobilization of forces on the borders may lead to the militarization of the crisis…and the military solution precedes any political option.”
He continued, “It is expected that Russian-Western relations will witness more bickering and pressure, the aim of which is to try to have a political or military position as a result of what is happening, but in any case, the scenarios are open to all possibilities.”
A diplomatic solution or a strong response
Washington stressed that a diplomatic solution on Ukraine with Russia is possible if the latter chooses this path to contain the Ukrainian crisis.
“We are ready to respond forcefully to a new Russian aggression. But a diplomatic solution is still possible and preferable if Russia chooses this path,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told a news conference in Washington.
He added, “Russia now demands that the United States and NATO sign treaties to withdraw NATO forces stationed on the lands of allies in Central and Eastern Europe and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and wants to engage us in a discussion about NATO instead of focusing on the hot topic of its aggression against Ukraine”.
He indicated that he thinks it is inevitably part of their strategy to present a list of totally unacceptable demands and then pretend that the other side does not follow their lead and use that as a justification for aggression.
Blinken warned of the possibility that “Moscow is preparing for a provocation or an accident and then uses it to justify military intervention, hoping that it will be too late when the world realizes its ploy.”
It will cost a lot
On Friday, NATO foreign ministers warned Moscow that it “will pay a heavy price if it interferes in Ukraine or enters its territory,” and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General, said that “NATO will not abandon any of its basic principles during talks with the Russian side.”
Stoltenberg added, in press statements, that “the United States is consulting with Europe regarding holding bilateral talks with Russia,” noting that “Russian crowds are still present on the Ukrainian borders” and “we must be prepared for diplomacy to fail.”
He stressed that “Ukraine is a free, sovereign state and has the right to defend itself, and we will help it to do so,” warning of “a real danger of conflict in Ukraine,” stressing that “there is no solution to the crisis without Europe.”
“We will negotiate with Russia in good faith and we will do everything we can to prevent it from taking military steps towards Ukraine,” the Secretary-General of NATO added, stressing that “there will be consequences for Russia if it decides to resort to military action against Ukraine.”
NATO “unified”“
The US mission to NATO stressed that “the alliance’s foreign ministers affirmed their unified position towards Russia’s “aggressions” against Ukraine.”
“The 30 NATO Allies are united against any Russian military action in Ukraine,” the mission said, after a video conference of NATO foreign ministers.
Scenario “Yalta“
In a related context, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that “Russia is trying to bypass the European Union by holding direct talks with the United States on Ukraine.”
Le Drian added, in televised statements, that “Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to bypass the European Union, and he wants to create holes in the European Union’s interdependence, which is getting stronger, and the security of the European Union cannot be imagined without Europeans.”
He continued, “Putin proposed a kind of return to the spheres of influence that were in the past, which means that Russia restores the spirit of Yalta,” referring to the conference held by the Allies in World War II (February 1945), which allowed the former Soviet Union to control the Neighboring countries in Eastern Europe.
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